Sunday, June 23, 2013

Identify risks for trading opportunities

At the high level, risks can be classified into financial and non-financial risks.

i.                 Financial risks include Market Risk, Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk
ii.                Non-financial risks include Operational, Legal, Political etc. risks

Identifying and understanding these risks in detail gives us plenty of opportunities to trade. It is illustrated here with an example.

Market Risk is associated with interest rates, currency exchange rates, commodity prices etc. Every business firm is exposed to such risks. Coal India is the biggest consumer of crude oil and the variation in crude prices will impact the margin structure of Coal India, so the stock price has a negative co-relation to oil prices. But neither Coal India’s stock price nor Brent crude pricing can go in one direction for long. They reverse, find equilibrium but not for long. Disturbance in market forces set them apart but again there will be a reversal at some point of time. This information gives the trader an edge to create trading positions in both and use technical parameters like convergence, divergence to book profits and wait for another opportunity to initiate trade.

Remember there are other risks playing out during the same time, which can alter the identified relationship, so the trader need to be cautious and have watchful eye to identify what is driving the individual stock or commodity price.