Opinion: Will it be 1 USD = 1 Euro soon?

All stocks, commodities and currencies or anything traded for that matter see fluctuations. But when a trend persists, it is clear that there is some fundamental change going on. So with the Euro currency. It was above 1.5 against USD during the 2008 financial crisis, and it seemed to be a stronger currency. But Europe too was drawn into crisis, thanks to PIIGS. Now US seem to be pulling out itself out of economic mess but European central bank announced a QE signaling its troubles are not over.

Source: http://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd

Why and When?

One would argue that it is the case of a stronger Dollar than a weaker Euro, and that argument is true to some extent. Dollar index has become stronger and would become even stronger when Fed begins raising the rates during later part of this year. At the same time, ECB announced bond buying program to pump more Euros into the banking system expanding its balance sheet. These two factors will drive down Euro further to peg one Euro to one USD by the end of the year.

Who will benefit and who will lose?

A weaker currency makes exports competitive, so the net exporting country, Germany, is set to gain. But at the cost of other partners of European Union as they do not have the same competitive advantage that Germany has. Their imports will become expensive. But the fresh and cheap Euros hitting the market buys the troubled countries time to turn around. As Germany is the biggest lender to its neighbors, they would show patience and a weaker currency boosts their domestic economy too.

If the situation continues this way for some more time, Germany or Germans will end up owning significant assets all over the European Union countries before Europe recovers and begins it economic growth again. 

If ECB’s program does not produce expected results, and if Greece, Spain opt to have their own currencies, Euro would become much weaker against USD. Though it is less probabilistic now as ECB’s aim is to avoid that situation, in case if it comes to that, Gold will be the ultimate gainer as currencies do not remain successful in preserving the value.

Book Review: Nammamma Andre Nangishta (Short Essays collection in Kannada) by Vasudhendra

This is a collection of twelve life stories; half of them are experiences of author in association with his mother, so the anthology takes the name ‘I like my mother’. They all exhibit ground to earth lifestyle of the author, his innocent upbringing and less materialistic but more humanistic approach towards life. Few essays are descriptive incidents and other follow the author from his childhood to adulthood. Two of them made me re-read as I enjoyed them most and I would like to expand on here.

Stainless Steel Utensils: Author’s mother had a strange fascination towards stainless steel utensils which were a symbol of prestige in homes few decades ago. After her marriage, she finds that there are no steel utensils in her husband’s house. Though it depresses her, she takes oath to fill the house with what she adores. And the opportunity comes soon. When she gets pregnant, her husband asks what her desire is, that is when the first stainless steel plate finds way into the house. When her son (author of this book) grows up and begins his earning in Madras, he takes her into a multi-storied shop selling stainless steel utensils, she becomes speechless with wonder seeing all that is on display. Her son comforts her putting hand around her shoulders and all those shining utensils reflect their joy. But this strong fascination of her does not get carried to her children. The author retains few utensils in memory of his mother and the touch of them brings him the memory and the feeling of motherly touch.

Annavru visiting my town: People of Karnataka identify Rajkumar, veteran actor of Kannada film industry as ‘Annavru’ (elder brother). When this popular movie star visits the small town of the author, all the population of the town waits in front of the house where the actor was taking rest. All of them wanted to see the actor whom they had seen only on movie screen before. Rajkumar comes out along with little his son, waves hands at all of those who had gathered there and disappears back into home. Author’s mother puts her young son on her shoulders so that he can take a look at the actor though she fails to see the actor herself. While returning home, mother and son visit Lord Hanuman temple, sit down in the temple as mother exchanges casuals with temple priest. That is when the priest requests author’s mother to sing devotional songs. When she begins singing, closing her eyes with involvement, two cars arrive at the temple silently. And the actor Rajkumar walks into the temple to offer his prayer. When author’s mother stops singing in wonder, he gestures her not to stop singing. After Pooja gets over, before leaving the temple, the actor checks with author (who was young then) what he is studying and advises him to do well. After this memorable experience, the same night author checks with her mother if she will perform the act of warding off the evil’s eye. She firmly rejects it claiming the actor is a good person so only good thing can happen to her son.

Though I liked the above two life stories most, other essays too are enjoyable reads. An essay titled ‘Guest and the monkey’ summarizes a funny experience of the author that makes the reader laugh out aloud. Priced at Rs. 60, this book is a steal. This book has won award from Karnataka Shaitya Academy as well. For all Kannada book readers, this book is enjoyable experience as it makes you both inward and lighter. For those considering to gift books, this is a perfect match as it comes in pocket size and easy to send it across.

Opinion: Luxury housing boom in Bangalore: Who are the takers?

Today’s Times of India reported a surge in demand for luxury housing in Bangalore. (Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/Luxury-home-launches-in-Bengaluru-up-531-in-4-years/articleshow/46096719.cms). The report quotes that ‘Homes starting from above Rs 5 crore is where the luxury market actually begins’. And there are 6000 units being built in 2014 alone. Phew, is Bangalore becoming another London or Hong Kong? Data says not yet and there is time for it. Why go out of India, Bangalore’s property market is lot smaller than that of Delhi and Mumbai both in pricing and number of units being sold. But the demand surge and the unusual growth rate it is witnessing can put Bangalore on par with global markets pretty quickly, for many reasons.

Housing and real estate in general are a broader representation of the underlying economy. Like good stocks command higher P/E multiple than broader stock market, towns with higher growth potential may command premium over others. If Bangalore’s luxury housing market is gaining traction, one needs to see who is driving it and how long that would go on.

As Bangalore became IT capital of India, having an office in Bangalore became a must for many global enterprises, either to do their core activities or to outsource their back office work. It attracted many entrepreneurs even from non IT sectors like GE, GM and Toyota to name a few. As the operations of these global enterprises grew, the number of high profile jobs too grew in Bangalore. Probably Bangalore has highest number of expats in India now. Many NRI too made a comeback to their home country and made Bangalore their home.

In the fresh wave of entrepreneurship with businesses going online and internet applications replacing the desktop based applications, Bangalore is emerging out as one of the start-up capitals of the world. It is doing what California does for US, putting product developers, marketers and businessmen together in the same geographic location creating an ecosystem suitable to create next generation businesses. So we see Amazon’s Jeff Bezos directly landing in Bangalore and not begin India’s journey from Delhi.

It is the migrants from outside India are a major source of demand for luxury housing in India, they form first tier of buyers for these houses which costs few to many crores of Rupees. Significant skilled and management resources are migrating from other parts of India to Bangalore to meet the demands of growing global business footprint. They form the second layer of demand. Competing with them are those residing in Bangalore and breaking into higher levels of income. They ensure base demand for luxury housing does not shrink but expand.

 If India is set to grow economically, Bangalore might grow at a higher pace than it. So will be the housing market and luxury housing at the top of it. Don’t blame Bangalore is becoming prosperity island, migrants being the new owners of the town. That is how the economy works. The winner takes it all.

Book Review: Yaana (A Kannada novel) by S L Bhyrappa

This is the story of space travelers. Two astronauts carefully chosen for the mission of exploring space are expected to produce their offspring in spaceship who would continue the mission which runs for decades. The children of those two astronauts, one male and another female are supposed to produce their next generation. When they are set to marry, they raise the question - how can siblings get married? They put forward this question to their parents and history unravels through the notes documented by their parents. Their find out that their parents are not married, were brought together only for this mission. They also learn that their parents are not biological parents but surrogate parents as the kids they raised were born out of embryo created from sperm and egg donors. That solves the dilemma ensuring space mission is unaffected.

Though this novel has scientific background, it is the psychological exploration of characters which takes the center stage (as always). This novel is another feather in Bhyrappa’s cap who has explored people from all walks of life, musicians, politicians, mythological characters and this time the space travelers. A must read for fans of Bhyrappa and this novel is brief (210 pages long), makes it a quick read and transports the readers to an experience beyond the Earth.

Why Obama and why not Putin?

Obama is here in India for republic day celebrations. That is headline news in BBC too. Many countries including neighbors (or rivals?) are taking note and responding as well. And you cannot miss to notice the attention Narendra Modi is getting in the international politics. All this is good news for us Indians. Ours is no more a country of snake charmers and beggars. Our Prime Minister can manage the opposite power poles of this world – Obama and Putin, quite effortlessly because India is no more a country the big brothers can afford to ignore. Also take a look at the show Indian Air force had put up at parade – they combined the aircraft's bought from USA and Russia to make a formation, a rare sight indeed.

The question I was asking myself was, why Obama and why not Putin as chief guest for Republic day celebrations? From business perspective, Obama would come first in the pecking order as we need USA to buy our IT, Pharma and other goods and services. In 2013-14, we exported $39B worth goods and services to USA while our import figures from USA stood at $22.5B. (Link: http://www.commerce.nic.in/eidb/Default.asp) In net, they are the biggest customer to India. With Russia, we have negative trade balance of $1.7B (we import more from Russia than we export). Russia needs us to sell their arms and petroleum products. We are customer to them. But USA is our biggest customer. We need them to buy more from us to improve our trade balance. In business, customers come first, so there is no wonder Obama would get the first invite under Modi's regime.

Politics is more than business. Politics tries to manipulate business (less effectively vice versa). Politics is more about power, power to stimulate, power to control and power to destroy. When it comes to power to destroy, Russia is second to none. (Remember the missile that brought down a passenger airplane in Ukraine – argument here is not about who launched it but to say it was built in Russia). They are the biggest arm supplier to those countries who cannot produce themselves. India too proudly displays the tankers acquired from Russia. Russian fighter jets are superior so we (Indian defense) have been one of the biggest customers to Russia. History says they won the Second World War. If there is going to be another world war they know how to save themselves and kill others. With two difficult neighbors, Putin too would have made sense as our chief guest on Republic Day.

The recent setbacks for Putin and China becoming closer to Russia would have made Modi to send the invite to Obama. Though business would be a priority for him now, I hope he had a talk with Putin like his guest did. (Obama called Sharif before coming to India). If and when there is trouble with neighbors, I think Modi is smart enough not to let Putin take the other side. Hitler did not read his Tolstoy and paid a heavy price. If cautious, Modi need not read ‘War and Peace’. He has proved himself as a good Chief Minister but state governments do not manage national defense, it is a new responsibility for him. Till now he has played his cards well. India needs more of Obama than Putin, unless our neighbors have a different plan.