Nature always has the last word

Mother Nature is a great nurse and an ultimate destroyer. She provides all the resources for a life to survive and when she is angry, all could be gone in a flash. Be it Earthquake or a Tsunami (and sometimes both).

The Himalayan disaster has proved it again. An article on ToI reports that “Power of Nepal earthquake was equivalent to 20 huge atomic bombs” (Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Power-of-Nepal-earthquake-was-equivalent-to-20-huge-atomic-bombs/articleshow/47067048.cms)

That would make the destroying power created by nuclear scientists look insignificant in front of Mother Nature. And the ghost of Hitler would realize he is no match for Nature’s prowess and suddenness in killing defenseless people.

There is a principle in Ecology that nature always has the last word. There have been five mass extinctions in Earth's history. We tend to forget them. It is common tendency for an individual to think it would not happen in his times or to him. (What else can we do?) Few of us are rebels too. We dig up earth aggressively for its minerals, change the path of rivers, and fight with nature to make it easy for us. But the success may not last forever. Geological changes are difficult to time, being ignorant or complacent with nature will collect its toll. When the disaster strikes which we cannot control, the damage is accelerated for the man-made reasons. Many lives will be lost under unsafe buildings, encroached river shores and the filled lake beds.

We human beings can think, understand, plan and use the resources the nature offers while other animal species seem to govern the laws of nature, go with it rather than change the rules. We are civilized and transformed over thousands of years; we can’t live like wild animals. However it does not mean we can disrespect nature. When the systems we created are put to test, we lost lives. Floods in Kedarnath and Kashmir took away many lives as the rain drains were encroached. Thousands died in Nepal in their own poorly constructed homes.

It looks like all other species are praying for disappearance of humanity (or their supremacy), so they can thrive. And the nature seems to be working on that request. It always has the last word, no matter what human’s arguments are.

ಪುಸ್ತಕ ಪರಿಚಯ:ಅವಧೇಶ್ವರಿ (ಲೇಖಕರು: ಶಂಕರ ಮೊಕಾಶಿ ಪುಣೆಕರ)

Seals from Harappan times (Source: Harappa.com)

ಇದು ವೇದ ಕಾಲೀನ ರಾಜಕೀಯ ಕಾದಂಬರಿ. ಋಗ್ವೇದದ ಮಂತ್ರಗಳು ಮತ್ತು ಹರಪ್ಪ ಕಾಲದ ಮುದ್ರಿಕೆಗಳು ಈ ಕೃತಿಗೆ ಆಧಾರ.

ಬಹು ಕಾಲದ ಹಿಂದೆ, ಶ್ರೀರಾಮನ ಪೂರ್ವಜನಾದ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸನು ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಯನ್ನು ಆಳುತಿದ್ದ ರಾಜ. ಅವನ ತಂಗಿ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸಾನಿಯೇ ಅವನ ಪತ್ನಿ. ರಾಜ ಮನೆತನದ ಆಗಿನ ಪದ್ದತಿಯಂತೆ ಸೋದರ-ಸೋದರಿಯ ನಡುವೆ ವಿವಾಹ ಜರುಗಿತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ದಾಂಪತ್ಯ ಜೀವನ ಅವರಿಂದ ಸಾಧ್ಯವಾಗದೆ, ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸನು ವಿಲಾಸಿ ಜೀವನದಲ್ಲಿ ಮುಳುಗುತ್ತಾನೆ.   ರಾಜ್ಯ ನಿಭಾಯಿಸುವ ಹೊಣೆ ಹಂತ ಹಂತವಾಗಿ ರಾಣಿಯ ಕಡೆಗೆ ವಾಲುತ್ತದೆ. ಶತ್ರು ದೇಶದ ಆಕ್ರಮಣವೊಂದರಲ್ಲಿ, ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸ ಬಂಧಿಯಾಗಿ ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಯಿಂದ ಬೇರ್ಪಡುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಆಗ ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ಜವಾಬ್ದಾರಿ ರಾಣಿಯ ಹೆಗಲೇರುತ್ತದೆ.

ತುಂಬ ಮುಂದಾಲೋಚಾನೆಯಿದ್ದ ರಾಣಿ, ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಯ ಹಿತವನ್ನು ಸಮರ್ಥವಾಗಿ ಕಾಪಾಡಿ ಕೊಂಡು ಬರುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಆಂತರಿಕ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳನ್ನು ಮತ್ತು ಹೊರ ಶತ್ರುಗಳ ಭಾಧೆಯನ್ನು ಬುದ್ದಿವಂತಿಕೆಯಿಂದ ಪರಿಹರಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅವಳಿಗಿರುವ ನೋವೆಂದರೆ ಸಂತಾನವಿಲ್ಲದಿರುವುದು. ಇದಕ್ಕೆ ಪರಿಹಾರವಾಗಿ ನಿಯೋಗದಿಂದ ಸಂತಾನ ಪಡೆಯುವಂತೆ ಸೂಚಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ ಅವಳ ಧರ್ಮ ಗುರುಗಳು. ಹೊರ ಲೋಕಕ್ಕೆ ರಾಜ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸನೇ ಗರ್ಭಧಾರಣೆಗಾಗಿ ಕೆಲ ಕಾಲ ಸೆರೆಯಿಂದ ಹೊರಬಂದಂತೆ ಸನ್ನಿವೇಶ ಸ್ರಷ್ಟಿಸಿ, ಸಿಂಹಭಟ್ಟನೆಂಬ ಬ್ರಾಹ್ಮಣನಿಂದ ಪುತ್ರ ಸಂತಾನವನ್ನು ಪಡೆಯುವ ರಾಣಿ ಮಗುವಿನ ಬೆಳವಣಿಗೆಯಲ್ಲಿ, ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಪಾಲನೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಮುಳುಗಿ ಹೋಗುತ್ತಾಳೆ.ಅವಳ ಮಗ ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ಬೆಳೆದು, ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಅಧಿಕಾರವನ್ನು ವಹಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾನೆ. ತಾಯಿಯ ಬಲಗೈ ಬಂಟ ತಾರ್ಕ್ಷ್ಯನೇ ಅವನಿಗೆ ಸಮರ ಕಲೆಗಳನ್ನು ಕಲಿಸುವ ಗುರುವಾಗುತ್ತಾನೆ. ತದ ನಂತರ ರಾಣಿ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸಾನಿ ರಾಜಕೀಯವನ್ನು ತೊರೆದು ಆಶ್ರಮವಾಸಿಯಗುತ್ತಾಳೆ.
           
ತರುಣ ರಾಜ ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ವಿಲಕ್ಷಣ ಸಂಧರ್ಭವೊಂದರಲ್ಲಿ ತನ್ನ ಗೆಳೆಯ ವೃಶಭಟ್ಟನೊಂದಿಗೆ ವಾಜ್ಯಕ್ಕೆ ಇಳಿಯುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಇದನ್ನು ನಿಶ್ಪಕ್ಷಪಾತಿಯಾಗಿ ಬಗೆ ಹರಿಸಲು ಪಕ್ಕದ ಕಾಶಿ ರಾಜ್ಯದ ದೊರೆಗೆ ಅಹ್ವಾನ ಹೊಗುತ್ತದೆ. ರಾಜ ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯುವಿನ ಮಾನ ತೆಗೆಯಲು ಪಣ ತೊಟ್ಟ ವೃಶಭಟ್ಟ ರಾಜನ ಜನ್ಮ ರಹಸ್ಯದ ಬಗ್ಗೆ ಪ್ರಶ್ನಿಸುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಸಂಶಯದ ಅನುಮಾನ ಹೊಕ್ಕ  ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ತಾಯಿಯನ್ನು ಮತ್ತು ಗುರುಗಳನ್ನು ಪ್ರಶ್ನಿಸಲು ಆಶ್ರಮಕ್ಕೆ ತೆರಳುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಅವನು ದೈವಾಂಶದಿಂದ ಹುಟ್ಟಿದವನೆಂದು ಅವನಿಗೆ ಭೊಧನೆಯಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಆಶ್ರಮದಲ್ಲಿ  ಮತಿ ಭ್ರಮಣೆಗೊಂಡಿರುವ ಸಿಂಹಭಟ್ಟ ರಾಣಿಯನ್ನು ತನ್ನ ಪತ್ನಿ ಎಂದು ಹೇಳುವುದು ಮತ್ತು ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸಾನಿ ಕರುಣೆಯಿಂದ ಅವನಿಗೆ ಲೈಂಗಿಕ ಸಹಕಾರ ನೀಡುವುದು ಗೊತ್ತಾಗುತ್ತದೆ.

ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಗೆ ಮರಳುವ ರಾಜನಿಗೆ ನೆರೆ ದೇಶಗಳು ಯುದ್ಧ, ಸಂಘರ್ಷಗಳಲ್ಲಿ ತೊಡಗಿರುವುದು ತಿಳಿಯುತ್ತದೆ. ರಾಜ್ಯಕ್ಕಿರುವ ಅಪಾಯವನ್ನು ಮನಗಂಡು ಸೂಕ್ತ ಮಾರ್ಗದರ್ಶನ ಕೊಡುವದಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ರಾಣಿ ರಾಜಕೀಯಕ್ಕೆ ಮರಳುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ತಾರ್ಕ್ಷ್ಯನ ತೆಕ್ಕೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಮತ್ತೆ ಜೀವನಾನಂದ ಹೊಂದುವ ಆಕೆ, ರಾಜ್ಯದ ರಕ್ಷಣೆಗೆ ಸೂಕ್ತ ಉಪಾಯಗಳನ್ನು ಹೆಣೆಯುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ಯುದ್ಧದಲ್ಲಿ ಪಾಲ್ಗೊಂಡು ಬಂಧನದಲ್ಲಿದ್ದ  ತಮ್ಮ ಸ್ನೇಹಿತ ಕಾಶಿ ರಾಜನನ್ನು ಬಿಡುಗಡೆ ಮಾಡುತ್ತಾನೆ.
     
ಇದೊಂದು ವಿಶಿಷ್ಟ ಕೃತಿ. ಲೇಖಕರಿಗೆ ಕೇಂದ್ರ ಸಾಹಿತ್ಯ ಅಕಾಡೆಮಿಯ ಪ್ರಶಸ್ತಿ ತಂದು ಕೊಟ್ಟ ಕಾದಂಬರಿ. ಇದು ಪ್ರಾಚೀನ ಕಾಲದ ಜನರ ಜೀವನ ಶೈಲಿ, ಅವರ ನ್ಯಾಯ-ಅನ್ಯಾಯದ ವಿಮರ್ಶೆ, ಋಗ್ವೇದದ ದೇವರುಗಳು ಮತ್ತು ಅಥರ್ವ ವೇದದ ಕ್ಷುದ್ರ ಶಕ್ತಿಗಳ ಆರಾಧನೆ, ಇತಿಹಾಸವನ್ನು ದಾಖಲಿಸಲು ಮೊಹರು, ಫಲಕಗಳ ಬಳಕೆ ಮುಂತಾದ ವಿಷಯಗಳ ಮೇಲೆ ಅರಿವು ಮೂಡಿಸುತ್ತದೆ. ಲೇಖಕರು ಇದನ್ನು ಇತಿಹಾಸದಂತೆ ಓದದೆ, ಕಾಲ್ಪನಿಕ ಕೃತಿಯಂತೆ ಓದುವ ಸಲಹೆ ನೀಡುತ್ತರಾದರೂ, ಈ ಪುಸ್ತಕ ನೀಡುವ ಮಾಹಿತಿ ಅಲ್ಲಗೆಳೆಯುವಂತಿಲ್ಲ. ಅದರಲ್ಲಿ ಗಮನಿಸ ಬೇಕಾದ ಒಂದು ಅಂಶವೆಂದರೆ, ಋಗ್ವೇದದ ಎಲ್ಲ ಶ್ಲೋಕಗಳು ದೇವರ ಕೀರ್ತನೆಯಲ್ಲ. ಮನುಷ್ಯ ಶೋಕದ ಆಲಾಪಗಳು ಸೇರಿವೆ ಎನ್ನುವುದು .    

ಶಂಕರ  ಮೊಕಾಶಿ ಪುಣೆಕರ ಅವರ ಸಂಶೋಧನಾ ಸಾಮರ್ಥ್ಯ ಅದ್ಭುತವದದ್ದು. 'ಗಂಗವ್ವ ಗಂಗಾಮಾಯಿ' ಕಾದಂಬರಿಯಿಂದ ಜನಪ್ರಿಯತೆ ಪಡೆದ ಅವರು, ಕನ್ನಡ ಮತ್ತು ಇಂಗ್ಲಿಷ್ ನಲ್ಲಿ ಇನ್ನು ಹಲವಾರು ಕೃತಿಗಳನ್ನು ರಚಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ಧಾರವಾಡ ಅವರ ಹುಟ್ಟೂರು. ವೃತ್ತಿಯಿಂದ ಶಿಕ್ಷಕರು. ಅವರ ಸಾಹಿತ್ಯ ಸೇವೆ ಅವರನ್ನು ಅಜರಾಮರನ್ನಾಗಿಸಿದೆ.

ಈ ಕಾದಂಬರಿ ಪ್ರಸ್ತಾಪಿಸುವ ವಿಷಯಗಳ ಸತ್ಯಾಸತ್ಯತೆಯನ್ನು ಒಪ್ಪುವುದು, ಬಿಡುವುದು ಆಯಾ ಓದುಗರಿಗೆ ಬಿಟ್ಟ ವಿಚಾರ. ಆದರೆ ನಮ್ಮ ಸಾಹಿತ್ಯದ ಪರಿವಿಧಿಯನ್ನು ವಿಸ್ತರಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುವದಕ್ಕೆ ಇದರ ಓದು ಅತ್ಯಗತ್ಯ.

Shrinking Japan’s population; World would follow in few decades

Japan, a leading indicator

Ghost of Malthus would be laughing at this news. Japan’s population is shrinking and is at 15-year low. (Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/Japanese-population-falls-to-15-year-low/articleshow/46974072.cms). Many European countries are showing similar trend and their population is topping out. Though population in South Asia and Africa are rising, growth rate is not high as before. This is despite significant improvement in life expectancy and low infant mortality. What is driving this phenomenon?

Theory behind it

Demography theory is better explained with population pyramids. Look at the chart. Typical demographic transition happens in four stages. Sharper the pyramid, higher is the population growth rate. 

Typical demographic transition (Source: Wikipedia)

As it becomes oval, there are more ageing people and lesser is the replacement rate. Look at below chart. It shows that Angola is in the first phase of demography but Japan is in the fourth of phase of it.

Source: wpolitika.wordpress.com

Driving factors

The reasons for transition are both economical and sociological. As a country begins its economic growth, their incomes rise, availability and affordability of medical services goes up, so is the life expectancy. That lets the pyramid start expanding at the top. When economy does better, it improves education levels and lifestyle of its people. It also takes up the marriage age of women too. Learned women will have better career prospects; have income and a wide range of choices than remaining a housewife. That along with late marriage leads to fewer children and smaller families. For population to expand, every couple (on an average) should have more than two kids. If every family has just two kids, they are just meeting the replacement rate. And if some of them prefer to be happy with a single kid, they are contributing to shrinking population. Urban region show this trend of reducing replacement rate first and it spreads to rural area in one to two generations. Similarly developing countries would follow developed nations with a gap of few decades. Reducing female to male ratio, double-income and no children couple expedite this trend.

Transition to last phase

Though life expectancy is going up, humans are not yet immortal, so the expansion at the top of pyramid too has a limit. When the birth rate or replacement rate falls, expansion at the bottom of pyramid reverses and begins to shrink. So the population growth tops out and begins to shrink like it is happening in Japan now.

Where is India?

What is happening in Japan will happen in India and other countries too. Our chart shows we are in the second (expanding) phase but reducing population growth rates indicate we are transitioning to stationary phase.

Source: www.fdbetancor.com

Look around your neighborhood. How many families do you spot having more than two kids? Most of my friends in Bangalore are happy with one kid. I guess this is the trend in whole of urban India. Rural India will catch up with it in another generation. So in two-three decades from now, we can expect India’s population to top out too and begin to shrink by 2050 as the above chart expects.

Then we will have people living longer but also leaner families. The rush at schools, children hospitals would moderate. And there will be more grandma and grandpa around.

ಪುಸ್ತಕ ಪರಿಚಯ: ಅಮ್ಮ ಸಿಕ್ಕಿದ್ಲು (ರವಿ ಬೆಳಗೆರೆ)

ಈ ಕಥಾ ವಸ್ತುವಿನ ಪ್ರಮುಖ ಪಾತ್ರ ರವಿ ಬೆಳಗೆರೆ. (ಈ  ಕಾದಂಬರಿ ಕಾಲ್ಪನಿಕವಾದರೂ, ನಿಜ ಜೀವನದ ನಾಮಧೇಯಗಳನ್ನು ಉಪಯೋಗಿಸುತ್ತದೆ). ಈತ ಒಬ್ಬ ಕುಸ್ತಿ ಪಟು. ನಂತರ ಪತ್ರಕರ್ತ. ಕುಡಿತದ ದಾಸನಾಗಿ ಕುಟುಂಬ ಸಂಬಂಧಗಳನ್ನು ಕಳೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಆದರೂ ಕುಡಿತವನ್ನು ಬಿಡಲಾರ. ಅದರ ಪ್ರತಿಫಲವಾಗಿ ತನ್ನ ಜೀವನವನ್ನು ಕೊನೆಗಳಿಸುಕೊಳ್ಳುವ ನಿರ್ಧಾರಕ್ಕೆ ಬರುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅದಕ್ಕೆ ಸೂಕ್ತ ಸ್ಥಳವಾಗಿ ತನ್ನೂರಾದ ಬಳ್ಳಾರಿಗೆ ಅರ್ಧ ರಾತ್ರಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಸ್ಕೂಟರ್ ನಲ್ಲಿ ಬೆಂಗಳೂರಿಂದ ಹೊರಡುತ್ತಾನೆ.ಊರು ಮುಟ್ಟುವದರಲ್ಲಿ ಅಪಘಾತ ಆಗುತ್ತೆ. ಗಾಯಗೊಂಡು ಬಂದ ಮಗನಿಗೆ ಶ್ರುಶೂಸೆ, ಉಪಚಾರ ಮಾಡುತ್ತಾಳೆ ಅವನ ಅಮ್ಮ. ಅವಳ ಆರೈಕೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಚೇತರಿಸುಕೊಳ್ಳುವ ಮಗ, ತನ್ನಲ್ಲಾಗುವ ಬದಲಾವಣೆಗಳನ್ನು ಗಮನಿಸುಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಕುಡಿತವಿಲ್ಲದೆ ಕೆಲವು ಗಂಟೆ ಕಳೆಯಲಾರದ ತನಗೆ, ಪೂರ್ತಿ ಒಂದು ದಿನ ಅದರಿಂದ ದೂರವಿರುವುದು ಅರಿವಿಗೆ ಬರುತ್ತದೆ. ಸಾಕಷ್ಟು ವರ್ಷಗಳವರೆಗೆ ಅವಳನ್ನು ಉಪೇಕ್ಷಿಸಿದ ಅವನಿಗೆ ನೆನಪುಗಳು ಮರುಕಳಿಸುತ್ತವೆ. ತನ್ನನ್ನು ಓದಿಸಲು ಅವಳು ಪಟ್ಟ ಕಷ್ಟಗಳ ಅರಿವಾಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಇನ್ನು ಹೆಚ್ಚಿನ ಸಮಯ ಅಮ್ಮನೊಂದಿಗೆ ಕಳೆಯಬಯಸುವ ಮಗನನ್ನು ನಿಜ ಜೀವನಕ್ಕೆ ತಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾಳೆ ಅಮ್ಮ. ಏಕೆಂದರೆ ಅವಳು ಸತ್ತು ಈಗಾಗಲೇ ಇಪ್ಪತ್ತು ವರ್ಷಗಳಾಗಿವೆ. ಮರು ದಿನ ಹೊಸ ಜೀವನ ಕಣ್ತೆರೆಯುತ್ತದೆ.

                    

ಈ ಪುಸ್ತಕ ಕುಡುಕನೊಬ್ಬನ ಸ್ವಗತ ಎನ್ನುವಂತೆ ತೋರುತ್ತದೆ. ರವಿ ಬೆಳಗೆರೆಯವರ  'ಖಾಸ್ ಬಾತ್ ' ಅಂಕಣಗಳನ್ನು ಓದಿದವರಿಗೆ ಹೆಚ್ಚು ಹೊಸತು ಕಾಣದಿದ್ದರೂ, ಹೊಸ ಓದುಗರಿಗೆ ಲೇಖಕನೊಬ್ಬನ ಜೀವನದ ಆಳ, ಎಲ್ಲೆಗಳ ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ಪರಿಚಯವಾಗಿ ಅಚ್ಚರಿ ಮೂಡಬಹುದು.

ಈ ಕಿರು ಕಾದಂಬರಿ ಸ್ವಲ್ಪ ಕಾಲ್ಪನಿಕ, ಬಹುತೇಕ ನಿಜ ಜೇವನ. ಕುಡಿತ ಎನ್ನುವದು ಮೊದ ಮೊದಲು ಜೀವನದ ಸೋಲುಗಳಿಂದ ವಿಮುಖರಾಗಿಸುವ ಸಾಧನವಾಗಿ, ನಂತರ ಹೆಚ್ಹಿನ ಸೋಲುಗಳಿಗೆ ಕಾರಣವಾಗಿ, ಒಬ್ಬರ ಜೀವನವನ್ನು ಹೇಗೆ ಹಂತ ಹಂತವಾಗಿ ಅಧಪಥನಕ್ಕೆ ತಳ್ಳುತ್ತದೆ ಎನ್ನುವದನ್ನು ಎಳೆ, ಎಳೆಯಾಗಿ ಬಿಚ್ಚಿಡುವದರಲ್ಲಿ ಲೇಖಕರು ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ಯಶಸ್ವಿಯಾಗಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ಆದರೆ ಇದಕ್ಕೂ ಹೆಚ್ಚಿನ ಉದ್ದೇಶ ಲೇಖಕರದ್ದು. ಈ ಖಾಯಿಲೆಗೆ ಮದ್ದು ಕೊಡಬಲ್ಲ ಎಕ್ಯಕ ಜೀವವೆಂದರೆ ಅಮ್ಮ. ಅವಳು ಎಲ್ಲ ದುಃಖವನ್ನು ಮರೆಸಬಲ್ಲಳು. ಎಲ್ಲ ತಪ್ಪುಗಳನ್ನು ಮನ್ನಿಸಬಲ್ಲಳು. ಒಬ್ಬಂಟಿ ಎಂದುಕೊಳ್ಳುವರ  ಜೀವನಕ್ಕೆ ಆಸರೆಯಾಗಿ, ಕುಡಿತದ ತೆಕ್ಕೆಯಿಂದ ಹೊರ ತರಬಲ್ಲಳು. ಇದು ಈ ಪುಸ್ತಕದ ಸಂದೇಶ. 

Why China had to shift to slower lane?

Planned or no other go?

China is reporting lower GDP growth rates and is vacating the top spot it held for many years. Is there something wrong or is it a common phenomenon? Let us try to understand. China expanded its economy in the last two decades focusing on exports and investments. But the same focus is not bringing further growth so it is turning focus on consumer driven economy. Though China is driven towards it, it is partially intentional.

Digesting mountains of debt is a priority

China's debt (% of GDP) and real estate prices. (Source: MarketWatch)

China's total debt is close to 3x of its GDP. While debt fueled investments contributed to GDP growth, they also took up asset prices. Now property prices in Shanghai are comparable to that of New York. Since half of China’s debt is related to real estate, it needs to ensure its real estate market does not collapse. Further debt/investments in property market will increase the risks beyond manageable levels. Priority for China is to bail out their financial system. So China had to let the wages

rise to improve the affordability in its domestic market to increase consumption and to service debt. When wages rise and currency does not depreciate exports will fall. So China reported lower export numbers for last month. Newspapers and journals said it is a surprise. But the Chinese were not surprised as they knew their next leg of growth does not come from exports. Its imports are also reduced with intentional efforts. China’s defense spending has increased but imports are reduced. Increased wages, Govt. spending in local market, stable currency bringing capital gains from financing activities would help China digest its mountains of debt. Moreover slower growth is unavoidable as the economy base increases.

Strong contender with a grand plan

When economies expand, wages in that country rise. To retain competitiveness, the exporting country will weaken their currency artificially to keep the prices same. China too pegged the currency with Dollar and used the dollars earned from surplus trade as reserves and expanded their monetary base. This had worked well and helped China rise in the economic ranks. Now it seems China has higher ambitions. To be number one, you need to avoid dependency on the exports to the country you want to beat. So China seems to be making required changes. Look at the chart, its currency has not depreciated much in the last three years while wages are consistently going up.

China's increasing wages (Source:tradingeconomics.com) but currency weakening stopped (Source: investing.com)

China's holding in US debt are not growing (Source: MarketWatch)

It has also reduced its money flow into US treasury bills. Now Japan is the largest holder of US debt and not China. China instead chose gold and Euro in the recent past. This change in trend is likely to continue. But it is not just decoupling from dollar. China seems to have higher ambitions of elevating their currency to the status of the dollar. So China is asking its partners to trade in their own currencies. Last year China entered into a multi-billion dollar gas supply agreement with Russia which does not involve dollar. Looking beyond trade, it is promoting a bank for Asia. You do not want a weaker currency when you want to lend your capital. All this reveals China is a strong contender to be a big brother with a consumption led economy and a stable currency.

Next time, when we hear of slower growth in China, we need to remember it is not entierly bad for them. They are working towards changing their image of ‘low cost manufacturing country’ and they have a grand plan.

India races ahead as investment cycle begins

It is IMF and World Bank who agree that India will surpass China in the economic growth rate in the coming days.  (Link: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/nYJREyuCAhz6bdu8u1brTO/IMF-urges-India-to-carry-out-further-structural-reforms.html). Well, the indicators were everywhere. In the last couple of months the following were indicating that India is preparing for its next growth phase.

• Shrinking deficits, less volatile currency
• Lower inflation, lower interest rates
• Rating agencies revising outlook
• Hiring picked up, lower unemployment
• Funds inflow, new projects announcements

 It is all good news. But how the growth would distribute across the society?

Wages rise, savers suffer

• As the stalled projects become functional again, the immediate beneficiary would be labor base and banks. Big infrastructure/construction projects employ low skilled and semi-skilled workers in huge numbers. As the labor absorption increases, wages begin to rise. That pace of expansion would be in double digits.
• The policy focus such as ‘Make in India’ will increase the demand for high skill labor so the large number of workforce would transition into higher incomes.
• As the cash flow comes back into stalled projects, Banks will see their dues coming back to them as NPA's reduce. Credit growth makes a comeback and helps the banks fare better.
• Savers who put their money into fixed income schemes and deposits will get a lower return as interest rates soften. They will have to settle down for lesser returns or move their money into alternate investments.

As growth accelerates, land consumption will increase

• As economic activity sees a surge, asset prices will see a boost. Land consumption will increase. Industrial land demand goes up with increase in production; increased consumption of services need more commercial land and those earning high and moving into better houses increase the demand for housing. Towns will expand their peripheries quickly.
• Inflation may not increase at the same pace of wages as the productivity benefits from the physical capital (infrastructure in place) starts paying off. Lower capital costs will give a breather for business profitability.
• Increasing labors costs will not hurt business sentiment in the near future but take up the average income levels in India (and GDP per capita) like how it happened with our Asian neighbors (Taiwan, South Korea, now China). Even if our GDP per capita doubles from current levels, we would get close to that of Sri Lanka or Egypt. So I suppose there is scope for wage increase without impacting potential economic growth in near term.
• This also means more people moving out of poverty zone, improved lifestyle for middle income population as the income gap will likely reduce from the current levels.

Simplified pictorial of economic cycle

How long this investment phase remains in action is hard to predict as it depends on various factors including political and global developments. Given the circumstances, it would continue for at least 3-5 years. When it tops out, that too will give many indications.

• As the interest rates reduce in India but go up in advanced countries, interest rate spread reduces and the incentive for foreign debt investors to invest in India will reduce. So the fund flow into India would gradually reduce.
• When wages rise beyond productivity improvements, it begins to hurt the prices of goods and services. Exports will suffer. Inflation catches up to fill the gap. That will ask for the interest rates to rise again and the next turn in the economy begins.

Before worrying about the next downturn, let us make most of what is in store for us and not forget to keep an eye on the indicators.

Deepening the bond market: Policy changes are happening

Corporate Bond market is underdeveloped in India. A RBI report shows that India is at a very low position vis a vis some of the major Asian countries.
(Link: http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=950)

Source: RBI site

Let us understand why it has become a necessity to revive the bond market.

Long term and low cost

Large infrastructure projects require long term, low cost financing to become financially viable. Since these projects (ports, power plants etc.) have long gestation time, cash flow from operations would begin only after couple of years and would remain low until the utilization reaches higher levels. During this first 5-10 years, if the interest rates are higher, they will not be able to service their debt. In such a situation, a company which raised funds at 6-7% interest rates has better chances of success than those paying 12-14% interest rates.

Infra was hit hard

Banks cannot offer lower rates but the bond market is underdeveloped in India. So the infra companies had to borrow from banks to develop their projects. As the global economy slowed down, cash flow in these projects became leaner. That is what led to higher NPA situation India is facing now. Cash flow for many infra companies are lower than the interest costs, they do not have the money to service their loans, so they are restructuring loans and have lost the courage to take up new projects. When Banks do not get the money back, they can’t led it further, so the credit growth in India has come down as there is weak demand for loans and banks do not want to risk lending more money to defaulters. When nobody takes risks, economy shrinks.

Burning hands with foreign debt

Whoever went to overseas market and borrowed at lower rates but in dollar terms, did not gain either as Rupee depreciated a lot. (Let us assume a company borrowed few years ago when Rupee was at 50 a dollar, will need more money to repay their loan now as dollar is at 62 now). All the loan amount cannot hedged, even if it is hedged completely, the hedging costs will take away the benefit of low interest rates.

Reviving Bond Market seems to be the only solution

For all the financing problems India is facing, deepening the bond market seems to be the only solution. It reduces the risk concentration in banking system with higher NPA. Private companies need not depend on banks and can borrow at lower rates by issuing bonds. And they also need to efficiently manage their business, else the bond market would demand higher coupon rate. RBI in the recent past has announced several measures to deepen the bond market. It is pushing corporate to issue Rupee bonds in foreign markets. (Link: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/rbi-pushes-biggest-borrowers-to-rupee-bond-market/articleshow/46820409.cms). That takes out the risks arising from forex volatility. Hedging costs and benefits would be transferred to a third party. And it provides access to low cost capital. RBI also intends to open up Govt. treasury market to retail participants. (Link: http://www.livemint.com/Money/1ZEYenE7i9Os4dlLQ9MK2N/RBI-moves-to-liberalize-bond-markets.html#nav=latest_news). Though how big that market is not yet known, it is a right step forward. Whether RBI likes it or not, it has to promote bond market. Will it affect credit growth in Banking? Probably, yes. And they may have to depend on retail customers more. But in a growing country, both bond market and banks will find avenues to grow.

EPFO – The new savior for Govt. divestments

“EPFO to invest 5% of its corpus in stock market” made headlines during this week. 

(Link: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/Zt14mjK3CJKcTDDR5PO5AL/EPFO-to-invest-5-of-its-corpus-in-stock-market.html).

Image Source: Financial Express

Why Now?

Around Rs.8,000 crores funds from Employee Provident Fund (EPF) will find way into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) of Public Sector companies in which Govt. wants to divest. During the last fiscal year, Govt. could not meet its divestment target. So it had to find new players to help them  with their divestment plans. Finance ministry did not have to try hard to find the elephant in the room. Now EPFO will become another savior along with LIC, UTI getting into market when there are no sufficient takers for the Govt. stake in PSU’s when Govt. wants to sell.

Will it affect EPF subscribers significantly?

EPF is a pensioner’s fund. To keep its risks lower, it had never put money into equity market so far. Now, 5% of the corpus will hit stock market. EPF subscribers need not worry much, as 5% exposure to equity market does not alter risk profile significantly and moreover the PSU’s like ONGC (to which major chunk of money would go now) have given decent returns. LIC (which also has a larger cash pool like EPF) is one of the market makers and had made good money over the last decade in the stock market. Another positive factor is reducing Govt. ownership and increasing retail participation through EPF might make those PSU organizations more responsible in their operations and finances.

Times Ahead

But Govt. would not stop with 5% (this is just initial step) and will increase it to 10% or even higher levels in the coming years. That will bring liquidity to stock market but at the risk of employees contributing towards their retirement. Risk has its rewards too. If PSU become more efficient and offer better returns for their shareholders, EPF subscribers will also see their savings growing at a better rate. Else, this would become another form of tax on them.

RBI chief vs former SBI Chief

It is former chief of SBI vs Governor of RBI. Look at these two articles:

• Former SBI Chief Criticises Rajan for Not Cutting CRR (Link: http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-former-sbi-chief-criticises-rajan-for-not-cutting-crr-752874)

• Banks Not Lowering EMIs is 'Nonsense', Says Raghuram Rajan (http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-banks-not-lowering-emis-is-nonsense-says-raghuram-rajan-752845?utm_source=taboola)

Former SBI chief says CRR cut would have allowed banks to reduce interest rate but RBI Governor disagrees. Who is right? While I am no expert on this subject, here is my attempt to understand the situation objectively. Let us understand CRR first.

Purpose of CRR

Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) is a specified minimum fraction of the total deposits (currently set at 4%) of customers, which commercial banks have to hold as reserves either in cash or as deposits with the central bank. It is idle money which cannot be lent, so Banks do not earn any interest on it. But it comes at a cost as banks have the obligation to pay interest to depositors on the whole of deposits. Banks do not like this and have been asking RBI to scrap CRR or reduce it. It has come down from a high of 15% during 1990’s to 4% now. But RBI will not scrap CRR as it does serve an important purpose. RBI wants to ensure that Banks do not run out of money when depositors want to liquidate their deposits. CRR along with SLR (at 21.5%) acts as a cushion of safety. When NPA’s are rising which will take out the money from banking system, Banks can still meet their payment obligations to depositors using this buffer. That makes faith in banking system remain intact in troubled times but the absence of it can threaten smoother operations. That is the interest of RBI. But Banks want to maximize their profits.

Credit growth and NPA

Let us look at how banks have managed credit growth and NPA. 

The first chart shows overall trend in credit growth is down but it is important to note that it is SBI and nationalized banks experiencing slower growth while private sector banks are not experiencing such a severe slowdown.

Credit growth in % (Data Source: RBI site)

Similarly SBI and public sector banks have more non-performing assets than their private counterparts. The written off loans reduce the money in banking system. Now we know who managed their loans better.

An IMF report says the percentage of debt owed by loss-making firms reached 23 percent in 2013/14. (Link: http://www.niticentral.com/2015/03/16/imf-report-on-indian-corporates-wakeup-call-for-government-of-india-306869.html). 

Public sector banks have approx. 4% of net NPA (and around 6% gross NPA). If they had done proper due diligence before issuing loans and acted tough on recovering their loans, they would have fared better. But they don’t have all the control as they (public sector banks) all report to Finance ministry and obey the instructions from them. Then why criticize RBI for not cutting CRR? What else to do in idle time? RBI sits on idle money with a purpose. But banks would have made their money without bothering much about CRR.