Thursday, November 26, 2015

World would be at peace again after few shakeups

I have a strange hypothesis. It is framed by the data connected through dots. It goes like this “Oil money funded anti-social organizations that scare off citizens and Govt.’s of many nations aiding to geo-politics. This disturbance was helping the oil producers to keep the crude oil prices high.” But in politics and markets, supremacy of one party is not eternal and every strategy will have an expiry date.

Now crude prices are halved as supply went high. Geo-politics, closing the boundary of a nation or blocking a sea route cannot drive oil prices high as oil can still be transported from other sources and through other ways which were not existent a few years ago. So when the oil producers are getting half the money what they were getting before, how do they feed the parasite mouths? But the organizations who made a living out of this money, know no other business than killing people. They need to show off how danger they could get, so the world’s peace was disturbed in the recent past. France became one of the victims.

The measures the world’s leaders take might help curb such activities. But the real blow is given by lower oil prices. The recent spike in attacks on civilized world shows that those outfits are desperate to show they can do their jobs well. But the times have changed. They cannot drive the oil prices back to $100/barrel. If oil prices are to remain low, which is a likely case, the fund flow to those holding weapons in hands will dry up. But until all their ammunition gets over, events like that happened in Paris are likely to repeat.

Money in the wrong hands is as dangerous as weapons in the uncivilized hands. When the money is in short supply to them, how will they acquire new weapons or hire new people to keep things going? When the money runs out, violence in the name of ideology too comes to a halt, unless they find a new source of money.

Cooling down of commodity super-cycle has made sure that the countries selling their natural resources go through a distress. As far as we can see, new money getting into the wrong hands is a least probability. So those outfits are fighting a losing war. But the ammunition in store has to come to an end before we see peace and normalcy being restored, everywhere.