Saturday, November 26, 2016

The new divide: Bankable vs Non-Bankable

Demonetization is going to reduce the cash-supply in the system and force most of India’s population to use the banking system. This would impact the sectors where cash was used most – Real Estate. But real estate is a broad asset class of Agricultural, Industrial, Commercial and Residential. Valuation is different for these segments and all of them do not use the same cash level when they change hands. Take a look at this map. Agriculture is the segment where cash was used most in comparison to others. So when cash crunch begins to hurt, it is likely to hurt the segment which was heavily dependent on cash.

Housing prices will see lower impact as cash component is less and it is mostly bankable (can get loans). As the interest rates begin to drop, affordability starts cutting through lower income levels which has higher population. Any price erosion along with interest drop will see demand increasing at a faster pace so prices would stop from falling further and begin to reverse in a few months period.

After a few years from now, you will see that real estate assets having changed hands into the people who were bankable, who could raise loans. If you had paid your taxes promptly, there will be lots of opportunities knocking on your door to own some real estate in the near future. And don’t hesitate as India’s growth story remains firm.

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