Thursday, February 15, 2018

Trade wars and hypocrisies

I could not resist appreciating Donald Trump this time. He raised a simple question. When India levies heavy taxes for the bikes made in USA while they enter in India, why reciprocal taxes were not put in place? (Link: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/donald-trump-slams-india-for-high-import-tariffs-on-harley-davidson-1812557)

When US allows lots of goods manufactured in India enter their country with zero taxes, this case looks unfair. What you can disagree with? In this back drop, China and India criticizing Trump on disrupting trade appear like hypocrite behavior. Heads of India and China gave long speeches at Davos on protectionism and how it is affecting global trade while what they do is against their own advice.


On another note, Trump’s talk shows that his country is no more a world leader but fearful of China and India. He wants to make his country great again. It does imply that they have lost that position. Look at their currency, USD has lost 20% against Euro in the past year. If they continue with protectionism, global trade will shrink. Along with it USD valuation will shrink too. And other countries will have the reduced need to hold USD as reserves. India has more than $400B as forex reserves while China’s reserves are five times more of India. As USD loses its importance and the global trade begin to use other currencies, it will become a serious blow to the US. Probably Trump is not thinking that far. His predecessors were surely smarter than him. They did not have reciprocal taxes in place but had ensured that global trade happens in their currency. They were bigger hypocrites than the current leaders of India and China. Now what Trump is doing is dismantling that empire built by his predecessors.


It appears to me that it is time to sell USD and get on to Gold.