GST: Growth hopes are overstated

After 15 years of initiating the discussions, Goods and Service Tax (GST) is finally seeing the light of the day. If rolled out from next financial year, it will subsume many of the taxes collected by state Govt.’s with a single tax to bring in uniformity across the states. It is a great reform in Tax Accounting. But will it prop up economy? Likely not, here is why.

Firstly, GST excludes few items such as liquor, petroleum, stamp duties on property etc. States will continue to have their say on these high tax revenue items. So liquor may continue to cost less in Goa and Petrol costlier in Karnataka than in Delhi and so on so forth despite the implementation of GST. Some of the non-uniformity is not going to disappear.

Looking at the benefits of GST, it is one tax to pay instead of multiple taxes currently levied at multiple stages of production or supply chain. Does it mean less tax to pay or one equivalent tax to be paid instead of small multiple taxes? If the taxes are going to be less, and if that benefit is passed on to consumer, it would surely help to boost consumption. But why Govt. will settle for lesser tax collection? How will they meet their fiscal deficit target, if their tax revenue takes a hit? Do you remember the last budget? Was there any tax relief offered to consumers? Why do you think State Govt.'s will settle down for lesser share in the taxes which Central Govt. will collect for them? When tax burden does not come down, why will the consumer demand go up or take up GDP growth rates higher?

So when the tax paid does not change, will the pricing of goods and services remain same? It depends on the current tax rates in the states and the replacement GST rate. Few low taxed items in certain states may see an uptick in their prices and those taxed in in higher rates than the GST rate which comes into effect will see their prices coming down. Overall, they regress to mean.

For corporate, this reform would mean ease of doing business. There will be less paperwork for tax accountants and it reduces compliance issues too. But unless the prices come down (due to lower taxes), expecting that GDP will see a boost is a false hope. The GST rate is still not yet decided but the panel is likely to drift towards neutral net tax. And what if Govt. wants to boost their earnings with a slightly higher rate than the net neutral rate? Taxes can go up or down depending on the policy and objectives of the Govt.

It might be clear now that this reform is definitely a welcome move but hoping that it will accelerate economic growth might just remain a hope.

Book Review: The Sunset Club by Khushwant Singh

Three people, all in their late eighties meet every day in Lodhi Gardens of Delhi at sunset and they occupy a bench called Boorha Binch (old men’s bench). They are the members of ‘Sunset Club’. They were introduced to each other in the same garden during their regular visits in the garden with occasional greetings slowly turning into lasting friendship.

They represent major religions of India. One of them is Pandit Sharma, second is Nawab Dehlavi and the third is Boota Singh. They have served in highest positions in their roles during their socially active life which has given them immense understanding of India.

This novel begins on January 26, 2009 (Republic Day of India) and ends on January 26, 2010. Each chapter in the novel covers one month of the year. And the thirteenth chapter concludes the novel. Apart from capturing the discussions of Sunset Club, each chapter records the transitions in the seasons and how Delhi reacts or adjusts to it.

All three members of this club are rich in their material possessions and rich in intellectual knowledge too. They discuss everything under the sun. Their personal lives, fantasies, sexual adventures, current affairs are all discussed. Religion and politics are often the central themes of their discussions. They disagreed on many subjects but they respected each other’s opinions, and longed to meet every evening to seek each other’s differing views on any subject, so the unity of Sunset Club remained unquestioned for 40 years.

They are bored with their routine lives. Sunset meetings are the major things in their daily life and they carry their discussions to their homes too to share with their family. They are in sunset years of their lives and know there is not much life left ahead for them. It is Nawab who bids goodbye to life first and the remaining two friends attend his funeral. They find it difficult to cope with the loss. And in few more days, Sharma too joins the dead friend. Sardar sahib (Boota Singh) alone returns to Boorha Binch of Lodhi Gardens.

Khushwant Singh wrote this novel at the age of 95. His objective was to record memories of his dead friends. Mixing facts with fantasy resulted into this novel ‘The Sunset Club’. He was not sure if he would be able to finish it. (But he went on to produce three more works after it). He was one author who brought life into every page of the book. The character of Sardar in this novel is partly reflection of himself. Reading this book may mentally prepare the readers toward their sunset years.

Nature always has the last word

Mother Nature is a great nurse and an ultimate destroyer. She provides all the resources for a life to survive and when she is angry, all could be gone in a flash. Be it Earthquake or a Tsunami (and sometimes both).

The Himalayan disaster has proved it again. An article on ToI reports that “Power of Nepal earthquake was equivalent to 20 huge atomic bombs” (Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Power-of-Nepal-earthquake-was-equivalent-to-20-huge-atomic-bombs/articleshow/47067048.cms)

That would make the destroying power created by nuclear scientists look insignificant in front of Mother Nature. And the ghost of Hitler would realize he is no match for Nature’s prowess and suddenness in killing defenseless people.

There is a principle in Ecology that nature always has the last word. There have been five mass extinctions in Earth's history. We tend to forget them. It is common tendency for an individual to think it would not happen in his times or to him. (What else can we do?) Few of us are rebels too. We dig up earth aggressively for its minerals, change the path of rivers, and fight with nature to make it easy for us. But the success may not last forever. Geological changes are difficult to time, being ignorant or complacent with nature will collect its toll. When the disaster strikes which we cannot control, the damage is accelerated for the man-made reasons. Many lives will be lost under unsafe buildings, encroached river shores and the filled lake beds.

We human beings can think, understand, plan and use the resources the nature offers while other animal species seem to govern the laws of nature, go with it rather than change the rules. We are civilized and transformed over thousands of years; we can’t live like wild animals. However it does not mean we can disrespect nature. When the systems we created are put to test, we lost lives. Floods in Kedarnath and Kashmir took away many lives as the rain drains were encroached. Thousands died in Nepal in their own poorly constructed homes.

It looks like all other species are praying for disappearance of humanity (or their supremacy), so they can thrive. And the nature seems to be working on that request. It always has the last word, no matter what human’s arguments are.

ಪುಸ್ತಕ ಪರಿಚಯ:ಅವಧೇಶ್ವರಿ (ಲೇಖಕರು: ಶಂಕರ ಮೊಕಾಶಿ ಪುಣೆಕರ)

Seals from Harappan times (Source: Harappa.com)

ಇದು ವೇದ ಕಾಲೀನ ರಾಜಕೀಯ ಕಾದಂಬರಿ. ಋಗ್ವೇದದ ಮಂತ್ರಗಳು ಮತ್ತು ಹರಪ್ಪ ಕಾಲದ ಮುದ್ರಿಕೆಗಳು ಈ ಕೃತಿಗೆ ಆಧಾರ.

ಬಹು ಕಾಲದ ಹಿಂದೆ, ಶ್ರೀರಾಮನ ಪೂರ್ವಜನಾದ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸನು ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಯನ್ನು ಆಳುತಿದ್ದ ರಾಜ. ಅವನ ತಂಗಿ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸಾನಿಯೇ ಅವನ ಪತ್ನಿ. ರಾಜ ಮನೆತನದ ಆಗಿನ ಪದ್ದತಿಯಂತೆ ಸೋದರ-ಸೋದರಿಯ ನಡುವೆ ವಿವಾಹ ಜರುಗಿತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ದಾಂಪತ್ಯ ಜೀವನ ಅವರಿಂದ ಸಾಧ್ಯವಾಗದೆ, ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸನು ವಿಲಾಸಿ ಜೀವನದಲ್ಲಿ ಮುಳುಗುತ್ತಾನೆ.   ರಾಜ್ಯ ನಿಭಾಯಿಸುವ ಹೊಣೆ ಹಂತ ಹಂತವಾಗಿ ರಾಣಿಯ ಕಡೆಗೆ ವಾಲುತ್ತದೆ. ಶತ್ರು ದೇಶದ ಆಕ್ರಮಣವೊಂದರಲ್ಲಿ, ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸ ಬಂಧಿಯಾಗಿ ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಯಿಂದ ಬೇರ್ಪಡುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಆಗ ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ಜವಾಬ್ದಾರಿ ರಾಣಿಯ ಹೆಗಲೇರುತ್ತದೆ.

ತುಂಬ ಮುಂದಾಲೋಚಾನೆಯಿದ್ದ ರಾಣಿ, ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಯ ಹಿತವನ್ನು ಸಮರ್ಥವಾಗಿ ಕಾಪಾಡಿ ಕೊಂಡು ಬರುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಆಂತರಿಕ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳನ್ನು ಮತ್ತು ಹೊರ ಶತ್ರುಗಳ ಭಾಧೆಯನ್ನು ಬುದ್ದಿವಂತಿಕೆಯಿಂದ ಪರಿಹರಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅವಳಿಗಿರುವ ನೋವೆಂದರೆ ಸಂತಾನವಿಲ್ಲದಿರುವುದು. ಇದಕ್ಕೆ ಪರಿಹಾರವಾಗಿ ನಿಯೋಗದಿಂದ ಸಂತಾನ ಪಡೆಯುವಂತೆ ಸೂಚಿಸುತ್ತಾರೆ ಅವಳ ಧರ್ಮ ಗುರುಗಳು. ಹೊರ ಲೋಕಕ್ಕೆ ರಾಜ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸನೇ ಗರ್ಭಧಾರಣೆಗಾಗಿ ಕೆಲ ಕಾಲ ಸೆರೆಯಿಂದ ಹೊರಬಂದಂತೆ ಸನ್ನಿವೇಶ ಸ್ರಷ್ಟಿಸಿ, ಸಿಂಹಭಟ್ಟನೆಂಬ ಬ್ರಾಹ್ಮಣನಿಂದ ಪುತ್ರ ಸಂತಾನವನ್ನು ಪಡೆಯುವ ರಾಣಿ ಮಗುವಿನ ಬೆಳವಣಿಗೆಯಲ್ಲಿ, ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಪಾಲನೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಮುಳುಗಿ ಹೋಗುತ್ತಾಳೆ.ಅವಳ ಮಗ ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ಬೆಳೆದು, ರಾಜ್ಯದ ಅಧಿಕಾರವನ್ನು ವಹಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾನೆ. ತಾಯಿಯ ಬಲಗೈ ಬಂಟ ತಾರ್ಕ್ಷ್ಯನೇ ಅವನಿಗೆ ಸಮರ ಕಲೆಗಳನ್ನು ಕಲಿಸುವ ಗುರುವಾಗುತ್ತಾನೆ. ತದ ನಂತರ ರಾಣಿ ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸಾನಿ ರಾಜಕೀಯವನ್ನು ತೊರೆದು ಆಶ್ರಮವಾಸಿಯಗುತ್ತಾಳೆ.
           
ತರುಣ ರಾಜ ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ವಿಲಕ್ಷಣ ಸಂಧರ್ಭವೊಂದರಲ್ಲಿ ತನ್ನ ಗೆಳೆಯ ವೃಶಭಟ್ಟನೊಂದಿಗೆ ವಾಜ್ಯಕ್ಕೆ ಇಳಿಯುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಇದನ್ನು ನಿಶ್ಪಕ್ಷಪಾತಿಯಾಗಿ ಬಗೆ ಹರಿಸಲು ಪಕ್ಕದ ಕಾಶಿ ರಾಜ್ಯದ ದೊರೆಗೆ ಅಹ್ವಾನ ಹೊಗುತ್ತದೆ. ರಾಜ ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯುವಿನ ಮಾನ ತೆಗೆಯಲು ಪಣ ತೊಟ್ಟ ವೃಶಭಟ್ಟ ರಾಜನ ಜನ್ಮ ರಹಸ್ಯದ ಬಗ್ಗೆ ಪ್ರಶ್ನಿಸುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಸಂಶಯದ ಅನುಮಾನ ಹೊಕ್ಕ  ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ತಾಯಿಯನ್ನು ಮತ್ತು ಗುರುಗಳನ್ನು ಪ್ರಶ್ನಿಸಲು ಆಶ್ರಮಕ್ಕೆ ತೆರಳುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಅವನು ದೈವಾಂಶದಿಂದ ಹುಟ್ಟಿದವನೆಂದು ಅವನಿಗೆ ಭೊಧನೆಯಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಆಶ್ರಮದಲ್ಲಿ  ಮತಿ ಭ್ರಮಣೆಗೊಂಡಿರುವ ಸಿಂಹಭಟ್ಟ ರಾಣಿಯನ್ನು ತನ್ನ ಪತ್ನಿ ಎಂದು ಹೇಳುವುದು ಮತ್ತು ಪುರುಕುತ್ಸಾನಿ ಕರುಣೆಯಿಂದ ಅವನಿಗೆ ಲೈಂಗಿಕ ಸಹಕಾರ ನೀಡುವುದು ಗೊತ್ತಾಗುತ್ತದೆ.

ಅಯೋಧ್ಯೆಗೆ ಮರಳುವ ರಾಜನಿಗೆ ನೆರೆ ದೇಶಗಳು ಯುದ್ಧ, ಸಂಘರ್ಷಗಳಲ್ಲಿ ತೊಡಗಿರುವುದು ತಿಳಿಯುತ್ತದೆ. ರಾಜ್ಯಕ್ಕಿರುವ ಅಪಾಯವನ್ನು ಮನಗಂಡು ಸೂಕ್ತ ಮಾರ್ಗದರ್ಶನ ಕೊಡುವದಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ರಾಣಿ ರಾಜಕೀಯಕ್ಕೆ ಮರಳುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ತಾರ್ಕ್ಷ್ಯನ ತೆಕ್ಕೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಮತ್ತೆ ಜೀವನಾನಂದ ಹೊಂದುವ ಆಕೆ, ರಾಜ್ಯದ ರಕ್ಷಣೆಗೆ ಸೂಕ್ತ ಉಪಾಯಗಳನ್ನು ಹೆಣೆಯುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ತ್ರಸದಸ್ಸ್ಯು ಯುದ್ಧದಲ್ಲಿ ಪಾಲ್ಗೊಂಡು ಬಂಧನದಲ್ಲಿದ್ದ  ತಮ್ಮ ಸ್ನೇಹಿತ ಕಾಶಿ ರಾಜನನ್ನು ಬಿಡುಗಡೆ ಮಾಡುತ್ತಾನೆ.
     
ಇದೊಂದು ವಿಶಿಷ್ಟ ಕೃತಿ. ಲೇಖಕರಿಗೆ ಕೇಂದ್ರ ಸಾಹಿತ್ಯ ಅಕಾಡೆಮಿಯ ಪ್ರಶಸ್ತಿ ತಂದು ಕೊಟ್ಟ ಕಾದಂಬರಿ. ಇದು ಪ್ರಾಚೀನ ಕಾಲದ ಜನರ ಜೀವನ ಶೈಲಿ, ಅವರ ನ್ಯಾಯ-ಅನ್ಯಾಯದ ವಿಮರ್ಶೆ, ಋಗ್ವೇದದ ದೇವರುಗಳು ಮತ್ತು ಅಥರ್ವ ವೇದದ ಕ್ಷುದ್ರ ಶಕ್ತಿಗಳ ಆರಾಧನೆ, ಇತಿಹಾಸವನ್ನು ದಾಖಲಿಸಲು ಮೊಹರು, ಫಲಕಗಳ ಬಳಕೆ ಮುಂತಾದ ವಿಷಯಗಳ ಮೇಲೆ ಅರಿವು ಮೂಡಿಸುತ್ತದೆ. ಲೇಖಕರು ಇದನ್ನು ಇತಿಹಾಸದಂತೆ ಓದದೆ, ಕಾಲ್ಪನಿಕ ಕೃತಿಯಂತೆ ಓದುವ ಸಲಹೆ ನೀಡುತ್ತರಾದರೂ, ಈ ಪುಸ್ತಕ ನೀಡುವ ಮಾಹಿತಿ ಅಲ್ಲಗೆಳೆಯುವಂತಿಲ್ಲ. ಅದರಲ್ಲಿ ಗಮನಿಸ ಬೇಕಾದ ಒಂದು ಅಂಶವೆಂದರೆ, ಋಗ್ವೇದದ ಎಲ್ಲ ಶ್ಲೋಕಗಳು ದೇವರ ಕೀರ್ತನೆಯಲ್ಲ. ಮನುಷ್ಯ ಶೋಕದ ಆಲಾಪಗಳು ಸೇರಿವೆ ಎನ್ನುವುದು .    

ಶಂಕರ  ಮೊಕಾಶಿ ಪುಣೆಕರ ಅವರ ಸಂಶೋಧನಾ ಸಾಮರ್ಥ್ಯ ಅದ್ಭುತವದದ್ದು. 'ಗಂಗವ್ವ ಗಂಗಾಮಾಯಿ' ಕಾದಂಬರಿಯಿಂದ ಜನಪ್ರಿಯತೆ ಪಡೆದ ಅವರು, ಕನ್ನಡ ಮತ್ತು ಇಂಗ್ಲಿಷ್ ನಲ್ಲಿ ಇನ್ನು ಹಲವಾರು ಕೃತಿಗಳನ್ನು ರಚಿಸಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ಧಾರವಾಡ ಅವರ ಹುಟ್ಟೂರು. ವೃತ್ತಿಯಿಂದ ಶಿಕ್ಷಕರು. ಅವರ ಸಾಹಿತ್ಯ ಸೇವೆ ಅವರನ್ನು ಅಜರಾಮರನ್ನಾಗಿಸಿದೆ.

ಈ ಕಾದಂಬರಿ ಪ್ರಸ್ತಾಪಿಸುವ ವಿಷಯಗಳ ಸತ್ಯಾಸತ್ಯತೆಯನ್ನು ಒಪ್ಪುವುದು, ಬಿಡುವುದು ಆಯಾ ಓದುಗರಿಗೆ ಬಿಟ್ಟ ವಿಚಾರ. ಆದರೆ ನಮ್ಮ ಸಾಹಿತ್ಯದ ಪರಿವಿಧಿಯನ್ನು ವಿಸ್ತರಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುವದಕ್ಕೆ ಇದರ ಓದು ಅತ್ಯಗತ್ಯ.

Shrinking Japan’s population; World would follow in few decades

Japan, a leading indicator

Ghost of Malthus would be laughing at this news. Japan’s population is shrinking and is at 15-year low. (Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/Japanese-population-falls-to-15-year-low/articleshow/46974072.cms). Many European countries are showing similar trend and their population is topping out. Though population in South Asia and Africa are rising, growth rate is not high as before. This is despite significant improvement in life expectancy and low infant mortality. What is driving this phenomenon?

Theory behind it

Demography theory is better explained with population pyramids. Look at the chart. Typical demographic transition happens in four stages. Sharper the pyramid, higher is the population growth rate. 

Typical demographic transition (Source: Wikipedia)

As it becomes oval, there are more ageing people and lesser is the replacement rate. Look at below chart. It shows that Angola is in the first phase of demography but Japan is in the fourth of phase of it.

Source: wpolitika.wordpress.com

Driving factors

The reasons for transition are both economical and sociological. As a country begins its economic growth, their incomes rise, availability and affordability of medical services goes up, so is the life expectancy. That lets the pyramid start expanding at the top. When economy does better, it improves education levels and lifestyle of its people. It also takes up the marriage age of women too. Learned women will have better career prospects; have income and a wide range of choices than remaining a housewife. That along with late marriage leads to fewer children and smaller families. For population to expand, every couple (on an average) should have more than two kids. If every family has just two kids, they are just meeting the replacement rate. And if some of them prefer to be happy with a single kid, they are contributing to shrinking population. Urban region show this trend of reducing replacement rate first and it spreads to rural area in one to two generations. Similarly developing countries would follow developed nations with a gap of few decades. Reducing female to male ratio, double-income and no children couple expedite this trend.

Transition to last phase

Though life expectancy is going up, humans are not yet immortal, so the expansion at the top of pyramid too has a limit. When the birth rate or replacement rate falls, expansion at the bottom of pyramid reverses and begins to shrink. So the population growth tops out and begins to shrink like it is happening in Japan now.

Where is India?

What is happening in Japan will happen in India and other countries too. Our chart shows we are in the second (expanding) phase but reducing population growth rates indicate we are transitioning to stationary phase.

Source: www.fdbetancor.com

Look around your neighborhood. How many families do you spot having more than two kids? Most of my friends in Bangalore are happy with one kid. I guess this is the trend in whole of urban India. Rural India will catch up with it in another generation. So in two-three decades from now, we can expect India’s population to top out too and begin to shrink by 2050 as the above chart expects.

Then we will have people living longer but also leaner families. The rush at schools, children hospitals would moderate. And there will be more grandma and grandpa around.