Software boutiques have potential to take the party away from big IT services companies

You cannot stop automation so says the below comic strip.

In the computer age, development of software too is seeing lot of automation. For example, developing a website for a new company/business is a matter of few days task now but it was a couple of month’s project a decade ago. A business user is able to manage much of the applications his company uses when compared to a big support team required to run the same. This means the same work is done by less people supporting it.

Today ET reported that Barclays plans to cut more than 30,000 jobs citing redundancy. (Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/48138995.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst).
Barclays is not alone. Much of the companies in BFSI (Banking, Financial Services and Insurance) are able to reduce the support staff, thanks to IT automation wave. It is nothing a new phenomenon. Bill Gates had warned about it in an interview. “People Don't Realize How Many Jobs Will Soon Be Replaced By Software Bots” (Link: http://www.businessinsider.in/Bill-Gates-People-Dont-Realize-How-Many-Jobs-Will-Soon-Be-Replaced-By-Software-Bots/articleshow/31969522.cms)

When IT jobs went offshore (or ‘Bangaloored’) India had benefited greatly through big 4 IT firms. Now the same jobs are being automated. New technologies and platforms are creating fewer new jobs than the number of jobs they are obsoleting. Hiring in big IT firms is slowing down. But the number of start-ups setting up shop is seeing a huge increase. ”Indian IT is a victim of its success” said Mohandas Pai (Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/indian-it-victimown-success-start-ups-next-big-idea-mohandas-pai_2044061.html?utm_source=ref_article). Indian IT industry in the last two decades had created a big pool of talent while it drove productivity across all industries (majorly BFSI) where IT solutions were implemented. Those employees who understood the technology, needs of the customers are venturing out to become entrepreneurs. An estimate says, India has some 18,000 start-ups, expanding at the rate of 4,000 start-ups a year. Since Bangalore is already a home to many of the techies, they are creating companies in their neighborhood quite similar to the phenomenon of Silicon Valley. (http://bangalore.startups-list.com/)

All of these start-ups may not see great success but they are at the forefront in driving the technology. Some of them are innovative, flexible and cost effective. They may not grow big to be another TCS as it is not in their design and they are focused on a specific market segment instead of a wider portfolio. But when they see success it is most likely at the cost of bigger and established firms. IT budgets are closely monitored by major businesses of the world. The total spend do not grow at double digits now. So the market is not getting bigger every passing year for both big firms and start-ups to make money. As the market saturates, market share sets the winners apart from losers.

Much of the business data is moved to internet with the rise of web based applications replacing desktop run programs swiftly. The advantage of ‘body-shopping’ the bigger firms have would not give them any more upper hands over smaller firms in processing that data now. Cloud applications are making it easier through pay per use models avoiding heavy investments in IT infrastructure. Transformation is underway; it is a matter of time before the landscape changes. Now start-ups mostly funded by venture capitalists or founders themselves are not yet a dent on big firm’s earnings, they are mostly sharing the snacks. But they have all the potential of snatching the lunches from the big firms.

What do you think of Mu Sigma, a humble startup now employs a few thousand data scientists? Did big firms find the niche segment of analytics uninteresting? I think they did not play it right, so missed the bus. Acquiring successful startups and merging them into bigger companies may not always work as the culture required would be different and the margin structures do not allow a smoother integration. So the big may not continue to get bigger as they will have to share their meal with numerous small players. If they ignore small players, it will be at their risk.

Bad days for Oil & Gold are good days for Rupee. And why buy Tourism stocks now?

Gold is an alternative currency. Gold is an alternative to fixed investments. Gold protects the value in the times of inflation. Gold’s value is decided by these three factors primarily and they are not favorable to Gold now.

The reserve currency US Dollar is becoming stronger. US Fed reiterated its commitment to raise interest rates from near zero, meaning fixed investments will make a comeback in the world’s biggest economy. Many countries are worried about deflation than inflation now.

All of that is taking the air out of Gold.

Gold is trading at a crucial point now. It is giving enough signals to drop down to its strongest support levels at around $980-1000 per troy ounce. That would mean almost 15% drop from current price levels.

With Iran coming back into the market, oil supply is increasing further. So fuel (petrol & diesel) prices are likely to offer some more relief for us.

And this is all good news to Rupee as Gold and Oil are biggest components of our imports. When the trade deficit comes down, outflow of Rupee reduces. That would mean RBI need not go on buying dollars from the market. If they reduce some of the forex reserves (though it is not in their plan), Rupee can comfortably come back to Rs. 60 a dollar. If RBI does that it is a bonanza for Indian consumers and if not still there is a relief.

Reduced oil and gold prices and Rupee not devaluating helps in reducing inflation. When the inflation slows down there is a case for reducing rates. Both will leave more money in the hands of consumer. His spending power gets better. The corporate will see their bottom line improving in the same proportion and that helps NPA situation in banks too. Reduced deficit and lower rates will help Govt. function efficiently. All this will boost the economy. If inflation and interest rates come down by approx. 1% from current levels, they may translate into 1-2% higher growth rates in GDP. Our finance minister’s expectation of 10% growth may become a reality in 2016. And it is just few months away.

But do not buy the capital goods or the steel sector hoping that there will be a new investment cycle beginning soon. There is lot of overcapacity there, utilization has to go up first before the new investments come in, which is few years away.

What likely will get better are those sectors which are closer to end consumers. E-commerce sales will see a new peak in 2016. Car sales will come back. Hotels and restaurants see rushes they have not seen in the last five years. Airlines will fly at full capacity. With India opening up to foreigners with visa on arrivals and Indian citizens having more money in their pockets, tourism will see a renewed interest. 

In the stock market, we should get in before the mass does (that is in 2016), so I am looking for investments opportunities now. Do you follow any company in Tourism sector? Can you share some details? 

Great artists but troubled lives

There are great artists who could produce great pieces of art work but yet could meet obligations of family and the societal norms. They were passionate buy yet responsible.

And there are numerous artists considered genius in their work but led faulty personal lives. They are my subject of interest today.

God when showers with great gifts to an individual he seems to blunt some other sense in him to make up for it. Like Achilles had it in in his heel. Geniuses have a great vision but yet are blind to simple things in life. Steve Jobs when fired from the company he founded, he was a given a reason that he was not sympathetic to his fellow employees. He was a great product designer but a poor people manager. Passion and tolerance do not seem to like each other. They rarely coexist peacefully.

An artist needs to have great emotional skills but at the same time he (or she) should not be sentimental. That lets him renew himself, cut-off from previous work and get ready for the next. Many great artists are versatile; they can get into shoes of various personalities rather easily. They also develop an awareness to come out of it with the same ease too. But the same skills do not go well when applied in their personal lives.

Family, friends, finance or fame, they expect care and sympathy to bond well. If you were there for family or friends when they needed it most, there are higher possibilities that it will be reciprocated. But the artist always lives in his imaginations, even when he is not painting or writing or acting or composing music. So sympathy gives him a miss.

If fortunate, an artist could get paid well for his work too. For him, money is the sixth sense to keep rest of the five senses in good humor. He is not trained to keep and grow the money. He has the least inclinations to learn the tricks of the trade. So it is a matter of time before art or money leaves him. In Indian mythology it is said that when goddess of wealth Lakshmi comes in, Sarasvati, goddess of knowledge and art takes leave.

Even when the artist is in distress, he would use art as his media to express his frustration rather than finding a friend to cry on his shoulder. But a common man does otherwise. A mediocre person visits temples or shrines or spends time in dim lit bars to find solace. Artist’s mind does not work the same way. He can be broken financially but rarely emotionally. So the spouses of great artists, however strong their bond is, cannot hold their partner’s souls to themselves.

Relationships or businesses, they expect discipline and commitment to flourish. Those qualities work against the nature of an artist. His mind wanders continuously. That makes him less dependable. People get attracted to him for his passion or intelligence. But the same is not enough to hold them together. When the material exhausts, artist’s interest dies and he moves on to newer subjects or persons. 

Artist is married to his art first and his artistic creations are the first children he has ever produced. That does not go well with the expectations of the society. So he is seldom an ideal husband or an ideal parent. Society says he is irresponsible. But the artist is deaf to it. Society thinks he had a troubled life but the artist does not agree or care. Now you may not wonder why Salman Rushdie had to marry four times. But look into his works, you would not find a half-hearted author.

Admirers of art adore the artists. But it need not be the same with those closely associated to the artists. The dogma continues.

ಸಣ್ಣ ಕಥೆ: ಆತ್ಮವೊಂದರ ಸ್ವಗತ

ಎಷ್ಟೋ ಸಲ ಅನ್ನಿಸಿತ್ತು. ಸಾಕು ಇನ್ನು ಈ ಜೀವನ. "ದೇವರು ಯಾವಾಗ ಮುಕ್ತಿ ಕೊಡುವನೋ?" ಎಂದು. ಆದರೆ ಇಂದು ಶಿವನ ಮೊರೆಯೇನು ಹೋಗಿರಲಿಲ್ಲ ಆದರೂ ಅವನು ಅಸ್ತು ಎಂದಾಗಿತ್ತು. ಓದಿದ ಎಷ್ಟೋ ಕಾದಂಬರಿಗಳು ಸಾವಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಮುಕ್ತಾಯವಾಗಿದ್ದು ನೆನಪಾದವು. ಹಾಗೇಯೇ ನನ್ನ ಕಥೆಯೂ ಮುಗಿದಿದೆ. ಕುತೂಹಲದಿಂದ ಅಂತಿಮ ದರ್ಶನಕ್ಕೆ ಬಂದವರತ್ತ ನೋಟ ಬೀರಿದೆ. ಬಂದಿದ್ದು ಕೆಲವೇ ಕೆಲವು ಜನ. ಆಶ್ಚರ್ಯ ಅಥವಾ ಬೇಸರ ಯಾವುದೂ ಆಗಲಿಲ್ಲ. ಏಕೆಂದರೆ ನಾನು ಇಂಥ ಸಂದರ್ಭಗಳಿಗೆ ಹೋಗಿದ್ದು ತುಂಬಾ ಕಡಿಮೆಯೇ. ಹಾಗಾಗಿಯೋ ಏನೋ ಬಂದ ಜನ ವಿಶಿಷ್ಟ ಆಸಕ್ತಿಯೇನನ್ನು ಮೂಡಿಸಲಿಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ಬಂದವರಿಗೆ ಅವಸರ, ಮುಂದಿನ ಕೆಲಸಗಳತ್ತ ಗಮನ ಮತ್ತು ತಮ್ಮ ನಾಳೆಗಳ ಚಿಂತೆ ಆವರಿಸಿರುವುದು ಅವರ ಮುಖಭಾವಗಳು ಸ್ಪಷ್ಟ ಪಡಿಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದವು. ಬದುಕಿದಿದ್ದರೆ ಮುಗುಳ್ನಗುತ್ತಿದ್ದನೇನೋ? ಆದರೆ ನಿರ್ಜೀವ ಶವ ಎಲ್ಲರಿಗೂ ಹೊರೆ. ಅದಕ್ಕೆ ಒಂದು ವ್ಯವಸ್ಥೆ ಮಾಡಿದರು. ಹಾಗಾಗಿ ಸ್ಮಶಾನ ಸೇರಲಿಕ್ಕೆ ಬಹು ಹೊತ್ತೇನು ಬೇಕಾಗಲಿಲ್ಲ.

ಬರಿ ಮೈಯಲ್ಲಿ ಯಾವತ್ತು ಮಲಗದಿದ್ದ ನನಗೆ ಇದು ಹೊಸ ಅನುಭವ. ತುಂಬು ಹೊದ್ದುಕೊಂಡು ಬೆಚ್ಚಗೆ ಮಲಗುತಿದ್ದ ರಾತ್ರಿಗಳು ಹೇಗೆ ಸರಿದು ಹೋಗುತ್ತಿದ್ದವೋ ಏನೋ? ಆದರೆ ಇಂದು ಮಣ್ಣಿನ ಹೊದಿಕೆ. ಚಳಿಯೇನು ಅನ್ನಿಸುತ್ತಿಲ್ಲ. ಉಸಿರಾಡುವ ಅವಶ್ಯಕತೆ ಇಲ್ಲದಿರುವುದು ಒಳ್ಳೆಯದೇ ಆಯಿತು. ಇಲ್ಲದಿದ್ದರೆ ಮೂಗಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಮಣ್ಣು ಸೇರಿಕೊಂಡು ಏನು ಗತಿ? ಬದುಕಿದ್ದಾಗ ಬಲು ಸತಾಯಿಸಿದ್ದು ಈ ನನ್ನ ಮೂಗು. ಮೂಗಿದ್ದವರಿವಿಗೆ ನೆಗಡಿ ತಪ್ಪಿದ್ದಲ್ಲ ಎಂದು ಗಾದೆ ಮಾತು ಇದೆ. ಆದರೆ ಬಯಲು ಸೀಮೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಹುಟ್ಟಿದ್ದ ನನಗೆ ಬೆಂಗಳೂರು ಹವಾಮಾನ ಒಗ್ಗದೆ, ಮೂಗಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಸತತ ಒರತೆ. ಯಾವುದಾದರೂ ನದಿಯ ಮೂಲ ನನ್ನ ಮೂಗಿನಲ್ಲಿದ್ದಿರಬಹುದೇ ಎನ್ನಿಸಿದ್ದು ಉಂಟು. ಅಲ್ಲಿ ಶುರುವಾದ ಕಿರಿಕಿರಿ ಗಂಟಲು, ಕಣ್ಣು, ತಲೆಗೆ ಹಬ್ಬದೇ ಸುಮ್ಮನಾದದ್ದಿಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ಇಂದು ಮೂಗು ನಿಷ್ಕ್ರಿಯ. ಮುಚ್ಚಿದ ಕಣ್ಣುಗಳಿಗೆ ಗಾಢ ಅಂಧಕಾರ.

ಸಮಯ ಸರಿಯುತ್ತ ಇದೆ. ನಾಯಿ, ನರಿಗಳು ಊಳಿಟ್ಟು ಸುಮ್ಮನಾದವು. ಸರಿಸೃಪಗಳು ಹರಿದು ಹೋದದ್ದು ಬಿಟ್ಟರೆ ಬೇರೆ ಯಾವ ಶಬ್ದ ಕೇಳಿಸುತ್ತಿಲ್ಲ. ಅರೆ, ಇದು ಎಂಥ ಮೌನ. ಸ್ಮಶಾನ ಮೌನ. ಹೌದು, 'ಸ್ಮಶಾನ ಮೌನ' ಎನ್ನುವುದು ಕೇವಲ ಅಲಂಕಾರಿಕ ಶಬ್ದವಲ್ಲ. ಒಂದು ಕ್ಷಣ ಹೆಂಡತಿಯ ನೆನಪಾಯಿತು. ಅವಳಿಗೆ ಈ ಮೌನವೆಂದರೆ ಆಗಿ ಬರುವುದಿಲ್ಲ. ಇದೆಲ್ಲ ನನಗೆ. ಬಾಗಿಲು ಹಾಕಿಕೊಂಡು ಮೂದೇವಿಯಂತೆ ಓದುತ್ತ ಕೂಡುತ್ತಿದ್ದದ್ದು ನಾನೇ ಅಲ್ಲವೇ. ಇನ್ನು ಮೌನವೇ ನನ್ನ ಸಂಗಾತಿ. ಸಾಹಿತಿಗಳು ಹೇಳುವ ಹಾಗೆ ಇದು ಚಿರ ನಿದ್ರೆಗೆ ಜಾರುವ ಸಮಯ.

ಇದೇನು ಯಾರೋ ಮಾತನಾಡುವ, ಅಲ್ಲ ಕೂಗುವ ಹಾಗೆ ಕೇಳಿಸುತ್ತಿದೆಯಲ್ಲ? ಹೌದು, ಇದು ತರಕಾರಿ ಮಾರುವವಳ ಕೂಗು. ಅವಳನ್ನು ಮಣ್ಣು ಮಾಡಿದ್ದು ಇಲ್ಲೇ ಹತ್ತಿರದಲ್ಲೇ ಎಂದು ಜನ ಮಾತಾಡಿಕೊಂಡದ್ದು ನೆನಪಿಗೆ ಬಂತು. ಸಂತೆ ಎಂದರೆ ಮಾರು ದೂರ ಸರಿವ ನನಗೆ ಇದು ಎಂಥ ನೆರೆ ಹೊರೆ? ಈ ನನ್ನ ವಿಚಾರಕ್ಕೆ ಉತ್ತರ ಎನ್ನುವಂತೆ ಮತ್ತೆ ಕೇಳಿ ಬಂತು ಅದೇ ಧ್ವನಿ

"ನಾನು ಇದೇ ಜಾಗ ಎಂದು ಕೇಳಿರಲಿಲ್ವೊ, ನನ್ನ ಗಂಡ, ಮಕ್ಳು ಸೇರಿ ಹೂತು ಹೋದ್ರು. ನಿನ್ನ ಹಣೆ ಬರಹಕ್ಕೆ ನಾನೇನು ಮಾಡೋಕಾಗತ್ತೆ?"

ಇದೇನಾಶ್ಚರ್ಯ? ಹಾಗಾದರೆ ದೊಸ್ತೊವ್ಸ್ಕಿಯ ಕಥೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಒಂದು ಪಾತ್ರವೊಂದು ಆತ್ಮಗಳ ಜೊತೆ ಮಾತನಾಡುವುದು ಬರೀ ಕಲ್ಪನೆಯಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ಅದು ರಶಿಯಾದ ಕಥೆ. ಆದ್ರೇನಾಯಿತು? ಆತ್ಮಗಳಿಗೆ ದೇಶ-ಭಾಷೆಯ ಎಲ್ಲೆ ಏಲ್ಲಿ?

ಹಾಗೆಯೇ, ಆಕೆ ನನ್ನ ಹಣೆ ಬರಹ ಅಂದಿದ್ದು ಯಾಕೆ? ಬ್ರಹ್ಮನ ಬರಹಕ್ಕೆ ಸಾವಿನಲ್ಲೂ ಕೊನೆಯಿಲ್ಲವೇ? ನಾನು 'ಈ ಹಣೆ ಬರಹ ಎನ್ನುವದೆಲ್ಲ ಸುಳ್ಳು, ಅದು ಮನುಷ್ಯ ತನ್ನ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನ ಮೀರಿದ ಮೇಲೆ ಹತಾಶನಾಗಿ ಆಡುವ ಮಾತು ಅಷ್ಟೇ' ಎಂದು ವಾದಿಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದದ್ದು ಎಂಥ ವ್ಯರ್ಥ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನವಾಗಿತ್ತು! ಕೆಲವು ಸತ್ಯಗಳನ್ನು ತಿಳಿಯುವದಕ್ಕೆ ಒಂದು ಜನ್ಮ ಸಾಕಾಗುವದಿಲ್ಲವೇನೋ?

ಅದೇನೇ ಇರಲಿ, ಈ ಮೃತರ ಲೋಕದಲ್ಲಿ ನಮ್ಮ ವಿಚಾರದ ಮೂಲಕವೇ ಇತರರೊಂದಿಗೆ ಸಂಪರ್ಕ ಸಾಧಿಸಬಹುದು ಎಂದಾಯಿತು. ಅದರ ಜೊತೆಗೇನೆ ನಾನು ಇನ್ನು ಶಾಲಾ ದಿನಗಳಲ್ಲಿದ್ದಾಗ ತೀರಿಕೊಂಡ ಅಜ್ಜಿಯ ನೆನಪಾಯಿತು. ಎಂಥ ನಿಷ್ಕಲ್ಮಶ ಪ್ರೀತಿ ಅಜ್ಜಿಯದ್ದು. ನಸುಕಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಎದ್ದು ಸ್ನಾನ ಮಾಡಿ, ಅವಳ ದೇವರ ಪೂಜೆಗೆ ಮಡಿ ನೀರು ಹಿಡಿದು, ಸಂಜೆ ಶಾಲೆ ಮುಗಿದ ನಂತರ ಅವಳ ಮನೆಯಲ್ಲೇ ನಡೆಸುತ್ತಿದ್ದ್ದ ಅಕ್ಕಿ ವ್ಯಾಪಾರದಲ್ಲೂ ನೆರವಾಗುತ್ತಿದ್ದೆ. ಅವಳು ಪುಡಿಗಾಸನ್ನು ನನ್ನ ಕೈಯಿಂದ ಒಮ್ಮೆ ಎಣಿಸಿ ತನ್ನ ಲೆಕ್ಕ ಸರಿಯಾಗಿದೆಯೇ ಎಂದು ಖಾತರಿ ಪಡೆಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದಳು. ಹೊಲದಲ್ಲಿ ರಾಶಿ ನಡೆದಿರುವಾಗ, ಚಿಕ್ಕವನಿದ್ದ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ಅವಳು ಕೈ ಹಿಡಿದು ಅಷ್ಟು ದೂರ ನಡೆಸಿದ್ದು, ಹಳ್ಳ ದಾಟುವ ಜಾಗೃತೆಯನ್ನು ಕಲಿಸಿದ್ದು ಮಸುಕು ಮಸುಕಾಗಿ ನೆನಪಿದೆ. ಈ ಪರಲೋಕದಲ್ಲಿ ಅವಳು ಮತ್ತೆ ನನ್ನ ಕೈ ಹಿಡಿದು ನಡೆಸಬಹುದೇನೋ? ಆದರೆ ಅವಳನ್ನು ಹೇಗೆ ಹುಡುಕುವುದು? ಮತ್ತೆ ಕೇಳಿ ಬರುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ಶಬ್ದಗಳಿಗೆ ಕಿವಿ ಕೊಟ್ಟೆ.

ಅಲ್ಲಿ ನಡೆಯತ್ತಿದ್ದದ್ದು ಇಹಲೋಕದಿಂದ ಭಿನ್ನವಾಗೇನೂ ಇರಲಿಲ್ಲ. ಹುಟ್ಟು ಗುಣ ಸುಟ್ಟರೂ ಹೋಗದು ಎಂಬಂತೆ, ಒಬ್ಬ ತನ್ನ ಕಾಯಕವನ್ನು ಮರಣದ ನಂತರವೂ ಮುಂದುವರಿಸಿದ್ದ. ಇಲ್ಲಿಯೂ ಅವನಿಗೆ ಹಿಂಬಾಲಕರು ದೊರಕಿದ್ದರು. ಅವನಿಗೆ ಇಲ್ಲಿ ನಡೆಯುವ ಪ್ರತಿಯೊಂದು ಆಗು-ಹೋಗುಗಳ ಮಾಹಿತಿ ಬೇಕಿತ್ತು. ಅವರೊಲ್ಲಬ್ಬ ಹೇಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ಆ ಸ್ಮಶಾನದಲ್ಲಿನ ಹೊಸ ಆಗಮನದ ಬಗ್ಗೆ. ನನಗೆ ಸ್ಪಷ್ಟವಾಯಿತು, ಅದು ನನ್ನ ಬಗ್ಗೇನೇ.

'ಏನೋ ಕಥೆ ಬರೀತಿದ್ನಂತೆ. ಕರೆಸಿ ಕೇಳೋಣ. ಇಲ್ಲೇನು ಕಥೆ ಕಟ್ತಾನಂತೆ'.

ನಿಜ, ಈ ನರಕದ ನಾಯಕರು ನನ್ನ ಕಥೆಗೆ ವಸ್ತುವಾಗುವದರಲ್ಲಿ ಯಾವುದೇ ಸಂದೇಹ ಇರಲಿಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ಇದರ ಸಲುವಾಗಿಯೋ ನಾನು ದೇವರ ಹತ್ತಿರ ಮುಕ್ತಿ ಕೇಳಿದ್ದು?

ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳು ಸಾವಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಮುಕ್ತಾಯ ಕಾಣದಿದ್ದರೆ, ಬದುಕುವುದೇ ಎಷ್ಟೋ ಲೇಸು. ಬದುಕಿದ್ದರೆ ಕೆಲ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳಿಗಾದರೂ ಪರಿಹಾರ ಕಾಣಿಸಬಹುದಾಗಿತ್ತು. ಹಾಗಿದ್ದರೆ ಈ ಸಾವು ಬಯಸುವುದು ಒಂದು ತರಹ ಕೆಲವರು ಹೇಳುವ ಪ್ರಕಾರ ಪಲಾಯನವೇ. ಇಹಲೋಕ-ಪರಲೋಕಕ್ಕೆ ಇರುವ ಅಂತರ ಚಿಂತೆ-ಚಿತೆಗೆ ಇರುವಷ್ಟೇ ಅಂತರ. ಬದುಕಿದ್ದಲ್ಲಿ ಚಿಂತೆಗಳನ್ನು ಕಡಿಮೆ ಮಾಡಿಕೊಳ್ಳಬಹುದೇನೋ? ಆದರೆ ಸಾವು ಇತಿಹಾಸದ ಕೊನೆಯ ಪುಟ.

ಅರೆ, ಎಂತಹ ತಪ್ಪಾಯಿತು. ಕೆಲ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳನ್ನು ಕೊನೆಗಾಣಿಸಿಕೊಂಡಿದ್ದರೆ ಇನ್ನೂ ನೆಮ್ಮದಿಯ ಸಾವು ನನ್ನದಾಗಬಹುದಾಗಿತ್ತು. ಬದುಕಿದ್ದಾಗ 'ಸಾವು ಕೊಡು' ಎಂದು ದೇವರಲ್ಲಿ ಕೇಳಿದ ಹಾಗೆ, ಸತ್ತ ಮೇಲೆ 'ಮತ್ತೆ ಬದುಕು ಕೊಡು' ಎಂದು ಕೇಳಲು ಸಾಧ್ಯವೇ?

Why International Trade is a zero-sum game many a times?

In a zero sum game, one’s gain is another’s loss. Free trade is not a zero-sum game. But any undue advantages do not seem to last forever. When it comes to commodities (or any natural resource), it is closer to zero-sum game in most cases. One country’s exports are another country’s imports. One country’s surplus is another country’s deficit. When crude was trading above $100/barrel, all emerging countries importing oil were having trade deficits and run-away inflation. But the oil producing countries were enjoying a trade surplus.

Saudi's Balance of Trade and GDP Growth Rate Source: Tradingeconomics.com

The drop in crude oil price turned the table. Look at the balance of trade data for Saudi. It is a quarter of what it used to be sometime ago. That is affecting its GDP growth rate too. To keep up the public spending as per plan, Saudi Govt. had to borrow by issuing bonds. And that is happening after a gap of eight years. (Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/12/financial-times-saudi-arabia-borrows-4bn-as-oil-price-reality-hits-home.html). But their loss is oil importer's benefit. Their import bills are reducing, so is inflation.

US is number one oil producer now, that means some of their consumption is met by local production. China, Japan and Europe are slowing down so they cannot increase oil consumption at earlier expected growth rates. Oil production is going up but not the demand. So oil prices may not come back in a hurry. What would happen if oil prices fail to come back for a longer period or weaken further from here? It would hurt the economies of oil exporting countries. They do not have any other products or skills worth mentioning to offset the damage in oil trade. Trade surpluses will shrink and they cannot continue to peg their currencies to US dollar. Weakening currency would take inflation up. Govt. cannot rise its spending infinitely. If they borrow heavily, it would take up the interest rates. And their economy will go through a downward spiral. They get into the same issues many emerging countries went through but probably more quickly and severely.

Oil producing countries gained at somebody’s cost and now they would lose at others profit. That makes me think international trade should not be skewed to benefit one party. Any such imbalances do not seem to last long. The opposing forces come together to bring the balance back. We are seeing many evidences for it all around the globe.