A war on the horizon

The contest for the control of South China Sea started long ago, soon after the Second World War was over. But now it taking some form as an International Tribunal ruled against China’s claims but China remains adamant on its views.

Many things happened in the last six decades or so before this development took place. China being a trade partner with US for many decades is now finding that its relationship (with US) is strained. As China sponsored economically, its ambitions to become a global superpower had led to spend more on defense. It accumulated lots of weaponry which is giving a sense of confidence for it to say no to big brothers of this world. Going by U.N convention’s of 200 nautical miles limit on the sea water control, China is into the waters belonging to Vietnam and Philippines. But the mighty China has already built artificial islands in the disputed region. And it seems to have plans to develop into a marine base. Any one coming closer gets pushed out. See the below image wherein China coast guard pumps water cannon on Vietnamese ship.

Strategy of domination being a big and mean guy would have worked in other continents like Africa. But China is surrounded with neighbors who can challenge it. And that began diplomatically with the International tribunal rejecting China’s claims. While China does not accept it and goes on to prove its might, you know it will become a power show. While no one knows when and if the war will breakout, there are enough signs and there are preparations going on to face one if it occurs.

While China may get support from some its war longing friends, it still has to fight alone in the sea waters due to geographical barriers. Though countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia might not have the capability face China on their own but in the eventuality of a war, they would be led by US along with help from Japan and India. All countries in the geographic range from Japan to India may pose a defense to China’s moves.

If diplomacy fails, war will become imminent. If China loses it which would reduce China’s aggression and its economic progress will be undone to some extent. If China proves it’s right on the disputed sea waters, there begins a new era in the world with US taking a back step.

Going by history and what is at stake, it seems China may not have much to win, it would pay a higher price than the benefits of getting those tiny islands into her lap. But now it is in no mood to listen. It is not just for islands but to prove the world dominance. So I say a war seems to be on the horizon.

Rockstar is gone to make way for a political bandwagon

Rajan was a pleasing personality. He had his own views and opinions. He was loved by media and public in general. Surely that did not go well with the Govt. who does not want to share the credit of a good story. And in the closed door meetings of big public sector banks, they seemed to be unhappy with Rajan’s move to clean-up banks. All public sector banks had to act tough, write-off some of bad debt, put more money aside for provisions, and finally show losses in their P&L statements. It made those bankers look bad on the way they did their jobs. They secretly wanted Rajan to go. It is party time for them and their prime customers, big borrowers who wanted their loans to be recast. Crony or not capitalism is back in business with the exit of Rajan.

What changes one can expect in the policies after he is replaced with someone who will be obedient to Finance ministry and caring to big capitalists.  Here is a list of changes I expect to happen.

• Forex reserves to come down by $20 -30 B. This is to help pay those bonds maturing and not to put pressure on Rupee and banking system.
• Policy rates to come down 50 bps to 100 bps.
• Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to be cut up to 100 bps. This would quickly happen if the new Governor comes from banking background. They (Banks) think 4% CRR results in lots of idle money and affect their profitability.
• Regulations on NPA to loosen considerably. Infra and Power sectors to come out of the list of troubled sectors.

Immediate beneficiary of these changes will be:

• PSU banks as their profitability improves and theor management gets a considerably free hand in doing their business.
• Infra, power, real estate etc. sectors which had huge debts but had trouble in recasting their loans. Pressure on them would reduce to a larger extent. Some of them may get fresh loans too.
• Consumers in the short term as interest rates come down.

But the consequences of those policy changes would result in the following:

• Inflation catches up along with the liquidity increase so the trend in interest rate reduction will have to stop and reverse at some time.
• Undoing some of good things – banks will carry forward the bad loans and if they drop their due diligence, bad loans may rise further.

We like it or not, we have lost Rajan who was giving bitter pills which would improve the health of economy. After him, some of the changes would look like a relief or a good thing for economy in the short term. So those opposing Rajan will get ample opportunities to prove themseleves right. But history is going to be kind towards the efforts of Rajan.

Driverless cars, people-less factories and automated call centers

Man has evolved from generation to generation, from stone-age to modern age. He used different materials and developed new tools with every passing generation to ease his work. But the present evolution is aiming at replacing the man himself with machines. For example, take driverless cars which are already at advanced stages of testing phase. They have cameras to do the functions of eyes, sensors to replace the nervous system and a processor makes decisions and the car moves on without a driver.

Robots have been in use for many decades but the modern day robots are self-learning. They can be taught to do repetitive tasks which they will do tirelessly with same precision and produce quality output without exchanging stares with their production shop manager. Employers surely love these robots as they do not ask pay rise every year or won’t go on strike, so more and more robots are replacing the jobs previously done by humans. Many large scale factories are automated where robots do material handling, machining, welding, riveting, painting and packaging etc. tasks. These factories employ very lean human staff and getting close to be labeled people-less factories. These factories will rollout cars which won’t need drivers!

The recent advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) has led to development of bots which can talk to (or chat with) customers, receive their complaints, provide information which were typically done by a customer care or call center employee. Not much time left for those in BPO industries before they are replaced with bots. The algorithms used in these bots understand the human language, the way we converse naturally along with our slangs. In the coming years you can employ a bot as your personal assistant, to schedule your calendar, to answer your calls and to plan your travel.

The corporate world will surely love these bots and robots as they improve business efficiency and improve profits. Will that lead to economic growth with fewer jobs? Probably so. And that is a bad news for half the world’s population which goes hungry and do not have a job to do. But the developed world would not care and the march of automaton would not stop. In the near future, most of those in developed world need not do physical work and they are reduced to just feel as all physical tasks are outsourced to a bot or robot. And the jobless will see that their chances of getting a job are further reducing.

Welcome to the new world of automation. You may think it is still far away in time before you face a bot/robot or interact with it. But in less than 10 years, they would have made inroads into your lives like how a cell phone made it into your pocket.

Not just Oil and Monsoon, Rajan and Modi too have done their bit too

We say thanks to low oil and not a bad monsoon for keeping inflation low. Many think that because of this situation Rajan and Modi are getting the credit. But I think they too have done their bit.

Absence of large scale corruption: First with Modi, lower price helped his Govt to get away with fuel subsidy and run the show with a lower fiscal deficit. True but there are other things to consider. Remember the days of UPA-2. None of the big scams like 2G or Coalgate which happened those days are not happening or at least so far. Larger scale corruption is not seen or seems to be cooking. That avoids the flow of balck money into the markets, especially the real estate. So real estate prices are in a check along with inflation. Avoiding the temptation to offer welfare policies helped to curb the fiscal deficit and thereby inflation. Many of his moves like ‘Make in India’ have remained a talk but even if a little progress is made in that direction, it would reduce import load for a large domestic consuming nation of ours. Even if he does not achieve much, he is surely not draining the national resources.

Fight against crony capitalism: Rajan (Governor of RBI) has put great effort in rebooting the banking system. Earlier Public sector banks mostly helped big businessmen; they gave big ticket loans and were never tough in recollecting their dues. But now they are forced to take tough decisions. It is surely a fight against crony capitalism. Apart from that he made the decisions and regulations transparent, linked the interest rates to CPI. His communications are consistent, policy stands have become predictable. More people know about the roles and responsibilities of a central bank now than before. Even if he leaves soon, he has already put a system in place which would help decisions of RBI in his absence.

So considering these factors apart from lower oil prices and a good monsoon forecast, are surely helping inflation to remain on the borders of 5%. Modi has three more years for him but Rajan’s continuity is in in doubt. If he too gets another three years stint, expect inflation too to remain in check and interest rates low. India’s economy would be in safe hands and may do consistently well too like the people at command.

I sincerely hope this good sport dos not get spoiled any time soon.

ಚಿಕ್ಕಂದಿನಲ್ಲಿ ನೋಡಿದ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು

ನಮ್ಮೂರಲ್ಲಿ ಇರುವುದೇ ಎರಡು ಚಿತ್ರ ಮಂದಿರ. ಅವುಗಳ ಹೆಸರು ಹೆಸರಿಗೇ ಮಾತ್ರ. ಜನ ಕರೆಯುವುದು 'ಹಳೇ ಟಾಕೀಸು' ಮತ್ತು 'ಹೊಸ  ಟಾಕೀಸು' ಎಂದೇ. ನಾನು ಸುಮಾರು ಏಳೆಂಟು ವರ್ಷದವನಿದ್ದಾಗ (ಅಂದರೆ ಸುಮಾರು ಮೂವತ್ತು ವರ್ಷಗಳಿಗೂ ಹಿಂದೆ) ಅಲ್ಲಿ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳನ್ನು ನೋಡಲು ಶುರು ಮಾಡಿದ್ದು. ಅದಕ್ಕೂ ಮುಂಚೆ ನನ್ನ ಅಕ್ಕನ ಜೊತೆ ಹೋದ ನೆನಪಿದೆಯಾದರೂ, ಅವು ಯಾವ ಚಿತ್ರ ಎನ್ನುವ ನೆನಪಿಲ್ಲ. ಹೆಣ್ಣು ಮಕ್ಕಳು ಒಬ್ಬರೇ ಹೊರಗೆ ಹೋಗುವ ಕಾಲ ಅಂದಿಗೆ ಇದ್ದಿಲ್ಲ. ಅದಕ್ಕೇ ಅಕ್ಕ ನನಗೆ ಒಂದು ಪಾರ್ಲೆ-ಜಿ ಪೊಟ್ಟಣ ಕೊಡಿಸಿ ಜೊತೆಗೆಂದು ಕರೆದುಕೊಂಡು ಹೋಗುತ್ತಿದ್ದಳು. ಅವಳಿಗೆ ಲಕ್ಷ್ಮೀ ಅಭಿನಯಿಸಿದ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳೆಂದರೆ ಪ್ರಾಣ. ಚಿತ್ರ ಮುಗಿಯುವುದಕ್ಕಿಂತ ಮುಂಚೆಯೇ ನಿದ್ದೆಗೆ ಜಾರಿರುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ಎತ್ತಿಕೊಂಡು ಮನೆಗೆ ಬರುವ ಜವಾಬ್ದಾರಿ ಅವಳದ್ದು. ಅವಳಿಂದ ಚಿತ್ರ ಮಂದಿರಗಳ ಪರಿಚಯ ನನಗಾಯಿತಾದರೂ, ನಾನು ನೋಡಿದ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ನೆನಪು ಮಾತ್ರ ಸ್ವಲ್ಪ ನಂತರದ್ದು.

ಇಬ್ಬರು-ಮೂವರು ಗೆಳೆಯರು ಮೊದಲೇ ಮಾತನಾಡಿಕೊಂಡು, ಪಿಚ್ಚರಿಗೆ ಹೋಗುವ ಮುನ್ನ ಸ್ವಚ್ಚ ಕೈ - ಕಾಲು ಮುಖ ತೊಳೆದುಕೊಂಡು, ಮುಖಕ್ಕೆ ಪೌಡರ್ ಬಳಿದುಕೊಂಡು, ಸಡಗರದಿಂದ ಸಜ್ಜುಗೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದೆವು. ವೇಳೆಯ ಸೂಚಕದಂತೆ ಇಡೀ ಊರಿಗೇ ಕೇಳಿಸುವಂತೆ ಟಾಕೀಸಿನ ಸ್ಪೀಕರ್ ನಲ್ಲಿ, 'ಶುಕ್ಲಾಂಭರಧರಂ ವಿಷ್ಣುಂ' ನಿಂದ ಆರಂಭವಾಗಿ, 'ಗಜಮುಖನೇ ಗಣಪತಿಯೇ' ಎಂದು ಕೊನೆಯ ಹಾಡು ಬರುವ ಹೊತ್ತಿಗೆಲ್ಲ ಪ್ರದರ್ಶನದ ಆರಂಭ. ಬೆಂಚು, ಕುರ್ಚಿ ಹಾಗೂ ಬಾಲ್ಕನಿಯ ಮೂರು ವರ್ಗಗಳಿದ್ದರೂ, ನಾವು ಹೆಚ್ಚಾಗಿ  ಬೆಂಚಿನ ಮೇಲೆ ಕುಳಿತುಕೊಂಡು, ತಲೆ ಮೇಲೆ ಎತ್ತಿಕೊಂಡು ಬೆಳ್ಳಿ ಪರದೆಯ ಅಗಾಧತೆಯನ್ನು ಕಣ್ತುಂಬಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದೆವು. 

ಆಗ ನೋಡಿದ ಮೂರು ಚಿತ್ರಗಳ ಅಸ್ಪಷ್ಟ ನೆನಪು, ಆದರೆ ಅವುಗಳ ಕೆಲವು ಸನ್ನಿವೇಶಗಳ ನೆನಪು ಮಾತ್ರ ಅಚ್ಚೊತ್ತಿದಂತಿದೆ. ಆ ಮೂರು ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ಯಾವುವೆಂದರೆ - 'ಚಲಿಸುವ ಮೋಡಗಳು', 'ಸಾಹಸ ಸಿಂಹ' ಮತ್ತು 'ನ್ಯಾಯ ಎಲ್ಲಿದೆ?'. ಈ ಮೂರೂ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ತೆರೆ ಕಂಡಿದ್ದು ೧೯೮೨ ರಲ್ಲಿ. ಆದರೆ ಬಿಡುಗಡೆಯಾದ ೨-೩ ವರ್ಷದ ನಂತರವೇ ಅವು ಚಿಕ್ಕ ಊರುಗಳಿಗೆ ಬರುತ್ತಿದ್ದದ್ದು. ಹಾಗಾಗಿ ನಾನು ಅವುಗಳನ್ನು ನೋಡಿದ್ದು ಬಹುಶ ೧೯೮೫ ರ ಆಸು ಪಾಸಿನಲ್ಲಿ. ಇಂದಿಗೆ ರಾಜಕುಮಾರ್ ಅವರನ್ನು ಆರಾಧಿಸುವ ನನಗೆ, ಬಾಲ್ಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಅವರ ಚಿತ್ರ ಅಷ್ಟು ಇಷ್ಟ ಆಗುತ್ತಿರಲಿಲ್ಲ. ಫೈಟಿಂಗ್ ಇರದ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳನ್ನು ನೋಡುವುದೆಂತು? ಆದರೆ  'ಚಲಿಸುವ ಮೋಡಗಳು' ಚಿತ್ರದಲ್ಲಿ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ಆಕರ್ಷಿಸಿದ್ದು ಪುನೀತ್ ನ ಅಭಿನಯ. 'ಕುಂಬಳಿ ಕಾಯಿ ಬಳ್ಳಿಲಿಟ್ಟನೋ ನಮ್ಮ ಶಿವ' ಎಂದು ಹಾಡುವ ಪರಿ ಮನರಂಜಿಸುತ್ತಿತ್ತು. ನಂತರದ ಚಿತ್ರ 'ಸಾಹಸ ಸಿಂಹ'. ಅದು ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ಹೊಡೆದಾಟದ ಚಿತ್ರ. ಆ ಚಿತ್ರ ನೋಡಿದಾಗಿಂದ ನಮ್ಮ ಓಣಿಯ ಹುಡುಗರೆಲ್ಲ ವಿಷ್ಣುವರ್ಧನ್ ಅವರ ಕಟ್ಟಾಭಿಮಾನಿ ಆಗಿ ಬಿಟ್ಟಿದ್ದರು. ಅದರ ಸನ್ನಿವೇಶ ಒಂದರಲ್ಲಿ, ವಿಷ್ಣುವರ್ಧನ್ ಸುರಂಗ ಮಾರ್ಗ ದಿಂದ ಹೊರ ಬಂದಾಗ, ಹೆಡೆ ಎತ್ತಿ ನಿಂತ ನಾಗರ ಹಾವೊಂದನ್ನು ಎವೆ ಇಕ್ಕದೇ ನೋಡುವ ದೃಶ್ಯ ನನ್ನ ನೆನಪಿನ ಪಟಲದಿಂದ ಇಂದೂ ಮಾಸಿಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ಇದನ್ನು ಮೀರಿಸುವ ಅನುಭವ ನನಗಾದದ್ದು ಶಂಕರ್ ನಾಗ್ ರ ಚಿತ್ರ ನೋಡಿದಾಗ. ಅದು 'ನ್ಯಾಯ ಎಲ್ಲಿದೆ?' ಚಿತ್ರ. ಅದರ ಮೊದಲ ದೃಶ್ಯದಲ್ಲಿ, ತುಂಬು ತೋಳಿನ ಲೆದರ್ ಜಾಕೆಟ್, ಕೈಗೆ ಅದೇ ಕಪ್ಪು ಬಣ್ಣದ ಕೈಗವಸು ಹಾಕಿಕೊಂಡು, ಬುಲೆಟ್ ಗಾಡಿಯ ಮೇಲೆ ಬರುವ ನಾಯಕ, ತನ್ನ ಶತ್ರುಗಳ ಮೇಲೆ ಸೇಡು ತೀರಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುವ ಪಣ ತೊಡುತ್ತಾನೆ. ನಾಯಕನ ಹಾವ-ಭಾವ, ವೇಷ-ಭೂಷಣ, ರೋಷ-ದ್ವೇಷಗಳನ್ನು ನೋಡಿದ ನನ್ನ ಎಳೆ ಮನಸ್ಸಿಗೆ ಇವನಿಗಿಂತ 'ಹೀರೋ' ಬೇರೊಬ್ಬನಿಲ್ಲ ಎನ್ನಿಸಿಬಿಟ್ಟಿತ್ತು. ಮುಂದೆ ಬೆಳೆದಂತೆಲ್ಲ ಅಭಿಪ್ರಾಯಗಳು ಬದಲಾದರೂ, ನಾನು ಚಿಕ್ಕಂದಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಒಪ್ಪಿಕೊಂಡಂತ ಮೊದಲ ಹೀರೋ ಎಂದರೆ  ಶಂಕರ್ ನಾಗ್. 

ಅದಾಗಿ ಕೆಲವೇ ವರ್ಷಗಳಿಗೆ ಶಂಕರ್ ನಾಗ್ ಅಗಲಿ ಹೋದರು. ನಮಗಾಗಲೇ 'ಮೃಗಾಲಯ' ಚಿತ್ರದ ಅಂಬರೀಶ್ ಇಷ್ಟವಾಗ ತೊಡಗಿದ್ದ. ಮುಂದೆ ಕೆಲವೇ ವರ್ಷಗಳಿಗೆ ರವಿಚಂದ್ರನ್ ಹಾಗೂ ಶಿವರಾಜ್ ಕುಮಾರ್ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ಚಿತ್ರ ರಂಗಕ್ಕೆ ವೈವಿಧ್ಯತೆ ತಂದವು. ಆದರೆ ಆ ಹೊತ್ತಿಗೆಲ್ಲ ಬಾಲ್ಯದ ಮುಗ್ಧತೆ ಮರೆಯಾದ ನಮಗೆ ಬೆಳ್ಳಿ ತೆರೆಯ ಆಕರ್ಷಣೆಯೂ ಕಡಿಮೆ ಆಯಿತು. ಚಲನ ಚಿತ್ರ ಒಂದು ಮನರಂಜನ ಮಾಧ್ಯಮ, ಅಲ್ಲಿಯ ಖಳ ನಾಯಕರು ನಿಜ ಜೀವನದಲ್ಲಿ ಕೆಟ್ಟವರೇನಲ್ಲ ಎನ್ನುವ ಸಂಗತಿ ಮನದಟ್ಟಾಗಿತು. ನಿಜ ಜೀವನದ ಸಂಘರ್ಶಗಳನ್ನು, ಭಾವುಕತೆಯ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ವಿವೇಕದ ಮಾರ್ಗ ತೋರುವ ರಾಜಕುಮಾರ್ ರ ಹಾಗು ಪುಟ್ಟಣ್ಣ ಕಣಗಾಲ್ ನಿರ್ದೇಶನದ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ಇಷ್ಟವಾಗತೊಡಗಿದವು. ಆದರೆ ಅವೆಲ್ಲ ಬದಲಾವಣೆಯ ಮುಂಚಿನ ಕಾಲಕ್ಕೆ ಹೋಗಿ ನೋಡುವುದಾದರೆ, ಅಲ್ಲಿ ಅಗ್ರ ಸ್ಥಾನದಲ್ಲಿರುವುದು ಶಂಕರ್ ನಾಗ್ ಮತ್ತು ವಿಷ್ನುವರ್ಧನ್. ಅವರ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ನನ್ನ ಸುಪ್ತ ಮನಸ್ಸಿನಲ್ಲಿ ತೀವ್ರವಾದ, ಅಳಿಸಲು ಆಗದಂತ ಅನುಭವಗಳನ್ನು ಮೂಡಿಸಿವೆ. ಚಿಕ್ಕಂದಿನಲ್ಲಿ ನೋಡಿದ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳ ಪ್ರಭಾವದ ಎಲ್ಲರ ಮೇಲೂ ಇರುತ್ತದೆ ಎನ್ನುವುದು ನನ್ನ ಅಭಿಪ್ರಾಯ. 

ಅಂದ ಹಾಗೆ ನೀವು ಜೀವನದಲ್ಲಿ ನೋಡಿದ ಮೊದಲ ಪಿಚ್ಚರ್ ಯಾವುದು? ನೆನಪಿದೆಯೇ? ನೀವು ಅದರ ಬಗ್ಗೆ ಬರೆಯುವಿರಾ?