Industry analysis: Global Steel Capacity; A problem of plenty

Recently Economic Times reported about probing of steel dumping by China into India. (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/steel/india-begins-probe-into-stainless-steel-dumping-by-china-korea/articleshow/34192337.cms)

While the consumer gets a bargain during dumping, it shows stress signs at the producing country. Is China’s steel industry really under pressure or is it a one-time event? Let us try to understand the scenario which is playing out starting with understanding the installed capacity around the world.

Global steel capacity:

China produces half of the steel world consumes. When did it start to add so much capacity? 

Is there really demand for it? 

What are the utilization levels?

It all started in the last decade, capacity almost doubled in less than a decade. And most of the capacity was installed in China. See the chart below.

Since the demand for steel is 1.2 to 1.5 times of GDP growth, demand for steel slowed along with slower GDP growth. So utilization of at the steel mills of China too declined. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/china-industry-idUSB9N0I602N20131120)

Conclusion: 

Large scale dumping appears to be an attempt to clear off the inventory. But it can continue in a lesser scale, as China can always offer lesser prices than producers in many other countries for several reasons. If there is any uptick in global economy, it would stop. In case of global steel demand softening further, China's steel companies would follow the footsteps of its solar industry, go out of business, until demand-capacity finds an equilibrium.

Book Review: The Man-Eating Leopard of Rudraprayag

This is the hunting tale of a man-eating leopard which had terrorized the villages bordering the river Alakananda for almost eight years. Records show it had killed 125 people (and many more killings did not get into record!) which makes him one of the biggest man-eaters humankind has ever witnessed. 3,000 plus gun license holders in the vicinity and many sportsmen failed to eliminate this leopard, and the serial killings went unchecked had put the colonial Govt. in bad light. This leopard got international fame through media and the devotee visiting holy shrines in the operating area of leopard carrying back the horror stories to their hometowns.

Invitation was sent to Jim Corbett (who needs no introduction). Leopard gave many misses to him too. A missed shot by Jim took off little hair from leopard’s neck but its man hunting continued. He killed a leopard in one of the attempts but found that it was not the man-eater. Series of attempts to hunt the man-eater failed which made Jim depressed but the villagers had an unwavering faith in him. They just believed leopard’s time has not come! While he prepared to pack-up, luck met him with the man-eater walking into the trap he had set as last attempt in a dark night giving him the opportunity he waited for ten weeks. Jim shoots with aim but immediately his torch goes off not letting him know the result of his shot in the pitch dark and moon not in sight. He waits till morning hours before getting down from the tree eagerly waiting to know the outcome, had he got the shot right and was it the man-eater. He feels relieved after identifying the dead body of man-eater and the whole village celebrates. Jim writes that gratitude showered on him was at its high on that day with all villagers thanking him for relieving their lives from fear.

Jim Corbett was born in Nainital and grew up in the Himalayan terrain which gave him the natural exposure to wilderness. His excellent observational skills, putting all senses – sight, hearing and smelling to work, making use of the knowledge he had developed of the way of the jungle, made him unparalleled hunter, gave him success where many had failed. He was also a noted naturalist and a wonderful writer, a powerful combination of talents which created a legend out of him.

Book Review: All roads lead to Ganga, Roads to Mussorie and Himalyan Tales

Author of these books Ruskin Bond is a writer who lives on the hills. Mountain streams, birds and animals, trees and flowers, the whole natural biosphere are his subjects of writing. His simple yet sensitive style makes his books easy and pleasurable read for young and adults and can charm those who rarely read too.

These books are collection of small tales on his experiences in Dehra Dun, Garhwal, Mussorie, along the river Mandakini, at the holy place of Tunganath, on the road to Badrinath etc. Even the ghosts find place in these stories, scare a little but entertain and make reader form a different set of viewpoints on the visits to these hills. 

Few stories reappear across these books which readers can skip and continue with the theme. You should buy these inexpensive books if you are falling short of stories to tell your kids or before you plan a travel to Himalayan terrains to deepen the experience one gets from traveling. If you are a bookworm you would have read him already but in case you have not, your personal library is incomplete without Bond, Ruskin Bond.

Opinion: GDP components and cash flow

Here is a simplified formula of calculating GDP. 

GDP = Private Consumption + Govt. Spending + Investments + (Exports-Imports)

So GDP has basically five components. The consumption or spending (both by Private and Govt.) is the biggest component of GDP, contributing approximately 70% to GDP. This consumption demand is partially met by producing those goods & services internally, fueling investments within the system. And some portion of this consumption demand is met by importing resulting in a negative cash flow. Any surplus goods or services exported bring a positive cash flow to the system.

Cash flow of GDP components for a nation

Biggest component of GDP, Private and Govt. spending, can expand or shrink based on what is happening with investments. When investments grow, new jobs are created, it brings more people under tax net and helps both Govt. and private spending to grow further. If consumption demand is met by increasing imports and less by investments, it creates jobs elsewhere draining cash from the system, so limits the expansion of an economic system.

Let us see what the data is for India during the last decade.

Source: RBI data

During 2000 to 2007, investments were distinctively higher than imports. It was self-reinforcing, GDP grew at a healthier rate.  During the last two years, investments slowed and were less than imports. It was self-defeating, resulted in a slower growth of GDP.

Perspective: Land prices during Japan’s lost decade and economics behind it

Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.in/

And the accompanying economics are herewith:

Source: A paper by James Wlicox

Relevance to India:

India is no Japan but there are many similarities in data and trends:

Source: United Nations statistics

• Population density (people per Sq. km) is comparable: 382 (India) vs 350 (Japan)

• Population growth rates are declining in India too

• Slowing GDP growth rate has put pressure on per capita income in the recent past

Source: World Bank Report

• Bad loans in the banking system are rising and have not found a top yet

Source: Business Line

  
   Conclusion:

    If history is any indicator and the trends continue, land prices would soften in India too.