Opinion: Greece has lost what Alexander had won

No. I am not talking about the lands won by Alexander the Great. They were soon lost following the death of Macedonian king. History is full of rise and falls. But the fame sticks. That fame is the subject of my blog post.

Alexander, being a ruthless warrior, commanded great respect by instilling fear. But those who were defeated by him and accepted his rule noticed that his soldiers were brave, they had a fighting spirit, and they demonstrated the fruits of team work in the wars. Historians recorded all this in great details so we know Alexander’s soldiers won the known world for their king.

Fast forward to present time, Greek Govt. is not able to repay its debts. But yet, its citizens do not want to let go of the benefits provided by Govt. with the borrowed money. They said no to austerity which reflected in electing a party to power which is against austerity.

Acropolis of Athens

When did those brave soldiers become a burden on their Govt.? I think it is not historical. Joining the European Union was a bad choice for them. It was their mistake (or of anyone) to spend borrowed money which they will not be able to repay in foreseeable future. They walked into the debt trap. ‘Grexit’ seems inevitable and just a matter of time. When Greeks abandon Euro to adopt their own currency, finance costs will go up a lot, inflation will do a great damage to their already suffering economy and their Govt. may have to sell off the lands it owns to repay some of its debt before it is able to borrow again.

People from ancient times created an image for their homeland and it sticks for a long time. For India, it was Buddha and later King Ashoka (the Great) who were a symbol for peace and non-violence. And India is still home to that tradition, look at Dalai Lama or visit Dharamshala for the proof.

But Greece did not become a home to another Alexander or a person of his caliber. And today’s Greece is creating a different image for those who will study history in future.

Book Review: By the Sabarmati by Esther David

This book is a collection of twenty-short stories. These stories are real short and sad. A few minutes time is what you need to read each one of them but the emotions they invoke are deep. All of the stories are about the women who live around Sabarmati (in Gujarat). And these women live in poverty, and their daily lives revolve around making their ends meet, having food or cloth of their choice is a luxury for them. But they too are humans, failed love or death of near ones makes their lives unbearable along with the disappointments they need to face for being born as poor.

The first story ‘Father’ is about a daughter worrying about his father on the first day of her marriage. ‘Full Moon’ is a story of two friends, one of them getting killed for dowry and the other being haunted by the memory of her. ‘Zhunzhun’ is a lamb adopted by a poor family and the sisters getting drowned in an effort to save the lamb. ‘Tent of Bones’ is a story of a women and an aged bullock waiting for its death at the hands of a butcher. ‘The Charpoy’ is about a man living in the memory of his dead wife. ‘Homecoming’ is a story of a poor mother whose son grows to be a rich man but does not want to live with her mother. ‘Kurma Avatar’ is about the guests making the lives of their hosts a burden by adopting a tortoise as pet. All other stories are also taken from unique life experiences of those living an ordinary life. These are not the stories which are written for entertainment but to show the emotional side of those poor who had no better choices in leading their lives.

After reading this I realized that taking a walk in slums or where the poorer of poor live and getting to kow them better, one can come out with a bunch of stories like this Author had done. While putting them into words, author adds the ironies of life to them. These stories can make the reader sad but also opens them up to wider emotions making them temperamental at the end.

Esther David is a Jewish-Indian author, an artist and a sculptor. She lives in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. She has won Sahitya Akademi Award in 2010 for The Book of Rachel.

Opinion: ‘Farm in India’ and smart farmers

‘Make in India’ is aimed at providing employment. But another major problem of India is its food prices which is a major source of inflation too. Before we discuss further let us look at some numbers.

Source: Agricultural Ministry, Govt. of India

India has 2.4% of world’s geographical area but has to feed 17% of world’s population to be self-sufficient. All of that 2.4% land is not arable. India is a mini world. It has deserts and snow-capped lands. Its mountains and valleys do not make farming an easy task. India houses more than 2,000 wild tigers in its protected forests and all of that forest land (~23% of India’s land) would never be available for farming. (So the effective arable land reduces to approx. 60% of the total land available. Data source: World Bank, Link: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS). But India’s population (and world’s too) is expanding. They need to be provided with food at affordable prices. When population is rising, farm output has to increase but the land available for it is not infinite. So it pushes up the food prices. 

Trying to limit the prices through subsidies is bad economics. The better way out of this would be is by increasing agricultural productivity. We know our farming skills are not efficient and we wonder when we hear of a single farming family working in hundred acres of agricultural land in Europe or US. Surely our farming needs reforms. We need to make our farmers less immune to swings of monsoon. We need to build more cold storage facilities to avoid wastage of vegetables and corn. We need to encourage farmers to use better farming methods and machinery. We need to encourage exports of farm produce. We need to increase the number of agricultural universities we have. We need to make agriculture an attractive sector for new talent. That will help provide employment for youth and food at affordable prices for India. And also to the world when we produce surplus.

If we can have a ‘Farm in India’ campaign (after 'Make in India' achieves some milestones) that can encourage prospective entrepreneurs to get into Agriculture. Inviting those international farmers and their associations to do contract farming in India can help our farmers to improve their productivity and farming yields. 

Dear beloved Mr. Modi, as you build smart cities, please help our farmers become smarter too. Help them to help India.

Book Review: 24 Akbar Road by Rasheed Kidwai

This is more than the biography of a bungalow, which was the center place of activities of Congress party for many decades. It provides biography of all its occupants and of the political party too. It has stood a mute witness to “Rise-Fall-Rise-Fall” of the historical party.

This bungalow situated at 24, Akbar Road of New Delhi, was turned into Party Office in 1978 by Indira Gandhi during her low and tough years after the emergency. The building was in the state of shambles, reflecting the situation of the party too. But the years ahead proved lucky for the building and its occupants.

Then book turns into historic events in making of Indira Gandhi and some details about her father too. When she was expelled from party, she had said “Nobody can throw me out of Congress. It is not a legal question but a question of the very fibre of one’s heart and being.”  That is because her house was not limited to her family but to many of the party workers and freedom fighters. She had witnessed her father and grandfather going to jail several times during British rule. She had confronted British at a tender age objecting their house hold goods being taken away by them as her father had not paid the fines imposed by British court. Though not an adult during freedom struggle of India, her Monkey Party had played the role of passing on critical messages to the freedom fighters. Indira’s role as a Congress party worker was indisputable. She came back to power and the bungalow at 24, Akbar filled with people and became a place where major decisions of the party are taken.

Indira was groomed by none other than her father. He had written lengthy letters to her shaping her personality in his absence as well. But Indira had a mind of her own. Along with wit and courage, she had weaknesses too. Her politically active son Sanjay was getting into many day to day functioning of the Govt. and that of party. Those who did not align with him quickly lost their influence and place. But the accident did not let Sanjay live longer and led to reluctant Rajiv’s arrival into politics. Subsequent killing of Indira and Rajiv too brought many changes into the functioning of party. After three generations of Nehru-Gandhi family holding the top post of Prime Minister, it was the turn of PVN Rao for the high post. In party matters too, Sitaram Kesri rose to chief post. The mismanagement and the mistakes of the party led to its fall and BJP assumed power under leadership of Vajpayee. But the political tide does not let anyone remain in top forever.

Congress was reelected in 2004. But Sonia opted to be a king maker by putting the learned man Dr. Man Mohan Singh on the throne. Activities resumed again at the bungalow of 24, Akbar Road. During this time, the building became tech savvy too, enabling better communication and coordination between party offices all over India. The book ends with an optimistic note on Rahul Gandhi, hoping that the prince will be crowned.

Author Rasheed Kidwai had written this book in a lucid style, keeps the reader engaged in this political thriller. He presents many interesting facts from the history of the party but he got it all wrong with Rahul. 2014 elections proved to be a disaster for Congress and Rahul. (This book was published in 2013). Like in 1978, the party seems to be in shambles again. Recently the ruling Govt. had issued a notice to Congress to vacate 24, Akbar Road. Is this the end of the historical party or a new beginning? At least it seems to be the end of 24, Akbar road in the history of Congress.

Opinion: Russian junk bonds and the weakness in Yuan

All three rating agencies have cut the ratings of Russian bonds to junk status with a negative outlook. A Ruble does not even fetch 2 cents of American currency now. It appears Putin underestimated the impact of economic sanctions. His tankers and missiles were battle ready but his economists failed him. Well, it is not just Russian currency and economy under attack, there are so many who are licking their wounds too including a strong contender to USD, the Euro. With crude oil prices being halved, all oil producing nations will have to re balance their budgets else they run the risk of depleting their reserves. Currencies of emerging countries are struggling to come out of the well they have fallen into, including the Indian Rupee, though the damage is not severe.

Ruble vs. USD Source: Investing.com

We know all currency valuations are relative and fluctuations are against another currency. For every loser, there has to be a winner in a zero-sum game. And there is only one gainer, USD. Was this bound to happen, or was it a conspiracy or a mystery? It cannot be mystery for sure as it cannot be explained. If it was bound to happen, how long this will continue and who will be the next victim? That is a better question to ask. It seems Chinese currency is the one next in line of fire.

Why China? It is Crimea and Oil which did the damage to Russia. But China did not attack any of its neighbors (though it has desires) and it is not an oil exporter. Right, but we need to approach it differently. When dollar was strengthening, China had to earn additional dollars to keep up its currency with it but China’s trade figures with US does not show any change. So gains in dollar would not spillover to Yuan. Unlike in yesteryear's, China cannot print its currency to buy those dollars as it would cause inflation in a low growth year. For this reason, Yuan which was pegged to dollar could not maintain its exchange rate with dollar and it lost some of its value in the last two months. You may observe the losses are not significant. But the crack can propagate for multiple reasons. Dollar is set become even stronger when Fed raises interest rates in US. That will weaken Yuan in the same proportion. When yields on US treasuries rise (probably by end of this year), it may trigger outflow of capital from China which can do serious damage to its currency. As domestic growth is slowing down in China, new investments do not come in like before. And on those trillions dollar worth US treasuries China is holding, it will suffer capital loss as bond prices will drop when yields rise. It will be like an interest free loan from China to US. China may start liquidating those treasury bills to prevent any serious damage to its currency. But it has to do it slowly in order to prevent inflation. The damage to its currency may not be severe as Ruble. But any damage is still damage. Economic theory suggests there are no long term benefits in engineering exchange rates.

Chinese Yuan vs USD Source: Investing.com

As long as US maintain its trade figures with China, there are no serious threats to valuation of Yuan despite any set-backs. But US is building its factories too and filling them with robots to achieve cost benefits, so the trade figures may not remain the same. Until there is one currency for the whole world or equality in GDP among many countries, big brother will continue to rule and enjoy at someone’s expense.