Why International Trade is a zero-sum game many a times?

In a zero sum game, one’s gain is another’s loss. Free trade is not a zero-sum game. But any undue advantages do not seem to last forever. When it comes to commodities (or any natural resource), it is closer to zero-sum game in most cases. One country’s exports are another country’s imports. One country’s surplus is another country’s deficit. When crude was trading above $100/barrel, all emerging countries importing oil were having trade deficits and run-away inflation. But the oil producing countries were enjoying a trade surplus.

Saudi's Balance of Trade and GDP Growth Rate Source: Tradingeconomics.com

The drop in crude oil price turned the table. Look at the balance of trade data for Saudi. It is a quarter of what it used to be sometime ago. That is affecting its GDP growth rate too. To keep up the public spending as per plan, Saudi Govt. had to borrow by issuing bonds. And that is happening after a gap of eight years. (Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/12/financial-times-saudi-arabia-borrows-4bn-as-oil-price-reality-hits-home.html). But their loss is oil importer's benefit. Their import bills are reducing, so is inflation.

US is number one oil producer now, that means some of their consumption is met by local production. China, Japan and Europe are slowing down so they cannot increase oil consumption at earlier expected growth rates. Oil production is going up but not the demand. So oil prices may not come back in a hurry. What would happen if oil prices fail to come back for a longer period or weaken further from here? It would hurt the economies of oil exporting countries. They do not have any other products or skills worth mentioning to offset the damage in oil trade. Trade surpluses will shrink and they cannot continue to peg their currencies to US dollar. Weakening currency would take inflation up. Govt. cannot rise its spending infinitely. If they borrow heavily, it would take up the interest rates. And their economy will go through a downward spiral. They get into the same issues many emerging countries went through but probably more quickly and severely.

Oil producing countries gained at somebody’s cost and now they would lose at others profit. That makes me think international trade should not be skewed to benefit one party. Any such imbalances do not seem to last long. The opposing forces come together to bring the balance back. We are seeing many evidences for it all around the globe.

ಉಳಿದವರು ಕಂಡಂತೆ

"ಉಳಿದವರು ಕಂಡಂತೆ" ಒಂದು ವಿಭಿನ್ನ ಚಿತ್ರ. ಒಂದೇ ಕಥೆ. ಐದು ಜನರ ದೃಷ್ಟಿ ಕೋನ. ಕಡಲ ತಡಿಯ ಮಲ್ಪೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ನಡೆಯುವ ಕೊಲೆಯೊಂದನ್ನು ಈ ಐದು ಜನರು ತಾವು ನೋಡಿದ ರೀತಿಯಲ್ಲಿ, ತಮಗೆ ಅನುಭವಕ್ಕೆ ಬಂದ ಹಾಗೆ ಕಥೆಯನ್ನು ಹೇಳುತ್ತಾ ಹೋಗುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಅದೇ ಕಥೆ. ಅವೇ ಪಾತ್ರಗಳು. ಆದರೆ ನೋಡುವ ಪ್ರೇಕ್ಷಕರು ಉಳಿದ ಪಾತ್ರಗಳ  ಸಾಲಿಗೆ ಸೇರಿ ಒಂದೇ ಕಥೆ ಹೀಗೆ ವಿಬಿನ್ನತೆ ತಾಳುತ್ತದೆ ಎನ್ನುವದನ್ನು ಗಮನಿಸುತ್ತ ವೀಕ್ಷಿಸಬೇಕು, ಇಲ್ಲಿ ಪ್ರತಿಯೊಂದು ಪಾತ್ರವೂ ತಮಗೆ ತೋಚಿದ 'ಸತ್ಯ' ಬೆಳಕಿಗೆ ತರುತ್ತದೆ. ಆದರೆ ಕೊನೆಗೆ ಉಳಿಯುವುದು "ಉಳಿದವರು ಕಂಡಂತೆ".

ಕಡಲ ತಡಿಯ ಕಿನಾರೆ, ಚಿಕ್ಕ ಬಂದರು, ಹಲವಾರು ದೋಣಿಗಳು, ಮಳೆ, ಮೀನುಗಾರರ ಬದುಕು, ಹುಲಿ ವೇಷ ನೋಡುಗರ ಕಣ್ಮನ ಸೆಳೆಯುತ್ತವೆ. ಹಾಗೇ ಅಲ್ಲಿನ ಜನರ ಭೂಗತ ಜಗತ್ತಿನ ಸಂಪರ್ಕ ಆಶ್ಚರ್ಯ ತರುವಂತದ್ದು. ಈ ಚಿತ್ರದಲ್ಲಿ ಹಲವು ಮಕ್ಕಳ ಹುಡುಗಾಟದ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ಒಂದು ವಿಫಲ ಪ್ರೇಮ ಕಥೆಯೂ ಇದೆ. ಒಟ್ಟಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಈ ವಿಭಿನ್ನ ಚಿತ್ರ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ಆಕರ್ಶಿಸಿ, ಮನರಂಜನೆ ಜೊತೆಗೆ, ಎಲ್ಲರೂ ತಮ್ಮ ಭ್ರಮೆಯನ್ನೇ ಸತ್ಯ ಎಂದೊಕೊಳ್ಳುವ ನಿಜವನ್ನು ಮನದಾಳಕ್ಕೆ ಇಳಿಯುವಂತೆ ಮಾಡಿತು.  
 

ಈ ಚಿತ್ರದ ಕಥೆಯನ್ನು 'ನಾನು ಕಂಡಂತೆ' ಹೇಳದೇ 'ನಿಮಗೆ ತಿಳಿದಂತೆ' ನೋಡುವುದೇ ಒಳ್ಳೆಯದು. ಈ ಚಿತ್ರ ದುಡ್ಡು ಮಾಡಿತೋ, ಇಲ್ಲವೋ ಗೊತ್ತಿಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ಈ ವಿಶಿಷ್ಟ ಪ್ರಯೋಗ   ಕನ್ನಡ ಚಿತ್ರರಂಗಕ್ಕೆ ಹೊಸತನ ತಂದಿರುವುದರಲ್ಲಿ ಯಾವುದೇ ಸಂದೇಹ ಇಲ್ಲ. ರಕ್ಷಿತ್ ಶೆಟ್ಟಿ, ಕಿಶೋರ್, ತಾರಾ ಮುಖ್ಯ ಭೂಮಿಕೆಯಲ್ಲಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ನಟನೆಯ, ಅದರಲ್ಲೂ ಹಾವ-ಭಾವದ (ಬಾಡಿ ಲ್ಯಾಂಗ್ವೇಜ್) ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ಉಪಯೋಗ ಇದರಲ್ಲಿ ಮಾಡಿ ಕೊಳ್ಳಲಾಗಿದೆ.

ಎಲ್ಲರೂ ತಾವು ಕಂಡದ್ದನ್ನೇ ಸತ್ಯ ಎಂದುಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಾರೆ. ಆದರೆ ಈ ಭ್ರಮೆ, ಎಷ್ಟು ಅವಾಂತರಗಳಿಗೆ ಕಾರಣವಾಗುತ್ತದೆ ಎನ್ನುವುದನ್ನು ಈ ಚಿತ್ರದ ಕೊನೆಯ ಸನ್ನಿವೇಶ ತೋರಿಸಿ ಕೊಡುತ್ತದೆ. ಒಂದು ಕೊಲೆ ಇನ್ನೆರುಡು ಕೊಲೆಗಳಿಗೆ ಕಾರಣವಾಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಮೂರು ಜನರ ಜೀವ ಮತ್ತು ಅವರು ತಮ್ಮವರಲ್ಲಿ ಹುಟ್ಟಿಸಿದ್ದ ಕನಸುಗಳು ಕರಗಿ ಹೋಗುತ್ತವೆ. ಮನುಷ್ಯನ ಮನಸ್ಸು ಕೆಲಸ ಮಾಡುವ ರೀತಿ ಯಾವತ್ತು ಹೀಗೇನೋ? ಅವನಿಗೆ ತನ್ನ ದೃಷ್ಟಿ ಕೋನದ ಹೊರಗೆ ಒಂದು ವಾಸ್ತವ ಇದೆ ಎನ್ನುವದರ ಅರಿವೇ ಬರುವುದಿಲ್ಲ. ಅಥವಾ ಅದು ಬರುವ ಹೊತ್ತಿಗೆ ಅನಾಹುತ ಆಗಿ ಹೋಗಿರುತ್ತದೆ. ಮಿಂಚಿ ಹೋಗುವುದು ಕಾಲವಲ್ಲ. ಆ ಕಾಲದಲ್ಲಿ ದುರ್ಗತಿಗೀಡಾಗುವ ಜನರ ಬದುಕು.

ಈ ಹೊತ್ತಿಗೆ ನನಗೆ ಅರಿವಾಗಿದೆ. ಈ ಚಿತ್ರ ಕೂಡ ಐದು ಜನರ ದೃಷ್ಟಿ ಕೋನ ಮಾತ್ರ. ನಿಜ ಜೀವನ ನಾವು ನಿತ್ಯ ವ್ಯವಹರಿಸುವ ಎಲ್ಲ ಜನರ ದೃಷ್ಟಿ ಕೋನಗಳ ಸಂಗಮ.

ಮನರಂಜನೆಯ ಜೊತೆ ಹೊಸ ಪ್ರಯೋಗಗಳನ್ನು ಬೇರೆ ಭಾಷೆಗಳ ಚಿತ್ರಗಳು ಮಾಡಿವೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅಂತಹ ಈ ಚಿತ್ರ ಕನ್ನಡ ಚಿತ್ರರಂಗಕ್ಕೆ ಹೊಸದು ಹಾಗೂ ಅಬಿನಂದನೀಯ. 

Who are we saving – poor farmers or poor consumers? Not both!

Both central and state Govt.’s have many food subsidy schemes. They are meant to protect poor consumers. Poor should not go hungry as food grains have become unaffordable for those having lower incomes. Govt. takes that burden to provide relief to the poor.

Farmers committing suicide continues this year too as the prices for the crops they had grown had dropped. Govt. pitches in, offers Minimum Support Prices for crops in attempt to save the farmers from killing themselves.

Does not look this odd? If food commodity prices were high, farmers would have been doing great. If food grains were cheap, poor consumers would have no issues with affordability.

Just take the case in Karnataka. Sugarcane farmers are committing suicides in a row. At the same time, the state Govt. provides rice at Rs.1/kg to protect the poor. 

Then who are the real beneficiary of Govt. subsidies? Somebody is making real money.

Prices of food commodities do not remain same throughout the year. Peak season to off-season rates see a huge volatility. During peak-season, when the supply is high, prices drop. Many farmers do not have holding power or access to storage facilities and reach to bigger markets. Middlemen provide liquidity to farmers but buy at a bargain price. Their ability to hold on till off-season ensures they get good price. Govt. made attempts to weaken the middlemen traders. But they did a poor job. Govt. bought directly from farmers and stored it in their warehouses which are not well maintained. Make a few checks, you will come to know that 20-30% food grains were rotten due to improper storage. That reduced supply during off-season, prices went up. That puts Govt. into action with subsidies again. Private enterprises do an efficient job in maintaining their food storage because of profit motive. For Govt., prime objective is not to make profits but to maintain a social balance. So Govt. owned food corporations are not efficient as private one. The best thing to do is to privatize these facilities. But Govt. will not fire its employees. So the inefficiency remains.

And the cycle continues. Govt. can’t let the farmers die or the poor suffer. Subsidies (which are taxpayer’s money) flow out into the hands of middlemen. They in turn fund all variety of political parties and corrupt Govt. machinery to keep their interests intact. The crony capitalism thus in operation does not let farmers and the labor class never get rich ensuring wages are always lower than capital costs. So I say in title of this post ‘We do not save either farmers or poor consumers’.

In my opinion the biggest reforms India needs are in Agriculture and Infra space. Robots (Make in India) and Computers (Digital India) would have waited. Making life easier should have been made a priority than doing business easy. No, I have nothing against the priorities of the ruling Govt. But our farmers and poor labor class should not extinct in our ambition of reaching Mars by mastering the rocket science or to become a global business magnet. All those ambitions are fine. But provide reliable supply of water and electricity first. Then our farmers and labor will buy smartphones and pay for the internet. That will increase the demand for manufactured goods and services and spurs the consumption cycle.

No matter what the Govt. does, this vicious cycle could be broken with personal and collective efforts too. We can help (or sponsor) the farmers we know to learn the new tricks of the trade – be it new seeds, low water utilization techniques or solar pumps and encourage them to build their own storage facilities. We can pool with neighbors to buy from farmers directly whenever possible. Similarly we can ask farmers to pool themselves and arrange delivery to consumers directly. It is not convenient in the beginning but once established it would work better. Help farmers earn better by avoiding big margins middlemen make wherever possible. However small the impact is, once it seems to work the idea will spread.

Instead of blaming rain gods or our political system for the inflation, we the consumers who can afford to go extra mile should do the same to reach the farmer and make it work better for both of us. Do not watch him die. Save the farmer to save ourselves.

ಬೆಟ್ಟದ ಮೇಲೊಂದು ಮನೆಯ ಮಾಡಿ

"ಬೆಟ್ಟದ ಮೇಲೊಂದು ಮನೆಯ ಮಾಡಿ
ಮೃಗಗಳಿಗೆ ಅಂಜಿದಡೆ ಎಂತಯ್ಯ "

ಇದು ನಾನು ಪ್ರಾಥಮಿಕ ಶಾಲೆಯಲ್ಲಿದ್ದಾಗ ನಮಗೆ ಬಾಯಿ ಪಾಠವಾಗಿದ್ದ ವಚನ. ಅಕ್ಕ ಮಹಾದೇವಿ ಮನುಷ್ಯನ ಸ್ವಭಾವವನ್ನು ಪ್ರಶ್ನಿಸುವ ರೀತಿ, ವಚನದಲ್ಲಿನ ಸರಳತೆ ಮತ್ತು ಜಾಣ್ಮೆ ನಮಗೆ ಅರ್ಥವಾಗುವ ವಯಸ್ಸು ಅದಾಗಿರಲಿಲ್ಲವೇನೋ. ಆದರೂ ಅದರ ಪದಗಳ ಜೋಡಣೆ, ರಾಗದಲ್ಲಿ ಹಾಡಿದಾಗ ಹೊಮ್ಮುವ ಭಾವ ಮತ್ತು ಕೇಳುಗರು ತಲೆ ತೂಗುವ ರೀತಿ ಕಂಡಾಗ ಅದು ಒಂದು ಮಹತ್ವದ ವಚನ ಎಂದೆನಿಸಿತ್ತು. ನಾವು ಶಾಲೆ ಮುಗಿಸುವವರೆಗೆ ಸಾಂಸ್ಕೃತಿಕ ಕಾರ್ಯಕ್ರಮಗಳಲ್ಲಿ ಕೇಳಿ ಬರುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ಈ ಹಾಡು ಇಂದು ಏಕೆ ಜನಪ್ರಿಯತೆ ಕಳೆದುಕೊಂಡಿದೆಯೇನೋ.

ನಾನು ಬೆಂಗಳೂರು ಮಹಾನಗರಿಗೆ ಜೀವನೋಪಾಯ ಕಂಡುಕೊಳ್ಳಲು ಬಂದು ಹಲವು ವರ್ಷಗಳೇ ಆದವು. ಇಲ್ಲಿ ಯಾರನ್ನಾದರೂ ಕುಶಲೋಪರಿಗೆ ಮಾತನಾಡಿಸಿದಾಗ, ಕೇಳಿ ಬರುವ ಸಾಮಾನ್ಯ ಮೂದಲಿಕೆ ಎಂದರೆ ಇಲ್ಲಿನ ಟ್ರಾಫಿಕ್ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆ. ಅರೇ, ಇದನ್ನೇ ಅಲ್ಲವೇ ಅಕ್ಕ ಮಹಾದೇವಿ ಕೇಳಿದ್ದು? ನೀವು ಟ್ರಾಫಿಕ್ ಗೆ ಅಂಜಿದಡೆ, ಬೆಂಗಳೂರಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಏಕೆ ಮನೆ ಮಾಡಿದ್ದು? ಅಂದರೆ ಅಕ್ಕನ ಕಾಲದಲ್ಲಿನ ಮನುಷ್ಯನಿಗೂ ಇಂದಿನವರಿಗೂ ಸ್ವಭಾವದಲ್ಲಿ ಯಾವುದೇ ವ್ಯತ್ಯಾಸವಿಲ್ಲ!

ಹನ್ನೊಂದನೇ ಶತಮಾನದಲ್ಲಿ ಅಕ್ಕ ರಚಿಸಿದ ಈ ವಚನ ಇಂದಿಗೂ ಪ್ರಸ್ತುತ ಎಂದರೆ ನಮ್ಮ ಉಡುಗೆ ತೊಡುಗೆ ಬದಲಾಗಿದೆಯೇ ಹೊರತು ನಮ್ಮ ವಿಚಾರ ಶೈಲಿಯಲ್ಲ. ಇದು ಬಹುಶ ಅಕ್ಕನಿಗೂ ಗೊತ್ತಿತ್ತು. ಆದರೂ ಸಮಾಜ ಸುಧಾರಣೆಯ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನವಾಗಿ ಈ ವಚನವನ್ನು ರಚಿಸಿದಳೋ ಅಥವಾ ಬದಲಾಗದ ಸಮಾಜದ ಧೋರಣೆಯನ್ನು ವ್ಯಂಗ್ಯವನ್ನಾಗಿಸಿ ನೀವಿರುವುದೇ ಹೀಗೆ ಎನ್ನುವ ಸಂದೇಶ ಆಕೆಯದಾಗಿತ್ತೋ ಇಂದು ಊಹಿಸುವುದು ಕಷ್ಟ.

ನಮಗೆ ಬೆಟ್ಟದ ಮೇಲಿನ ಏಕಾಂತ ಬೇಕು ಆದರೆ ಅದು ತಂದೊಡ್ಡುವ ಅಪಾಯಗಳು, ಅವು ಎಷ್ಟೇ ಸಹಜವಾದರೂ ಬೇಡ. ಸಂತೋಷ ಬೇಕು ಆದರೆ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆ ಬೇಡ. ಈ ತರಹದ ವಿಪರ್ಯಾಸಗಳಿಗೆ ಮನುಷ್ಯ ಯಾವ ಕಾಲದಲ್ಲೂ ಹೊರತಾಗಿಲ್ಲ. ಅವನಿಗೆ ಪ್ರತಿಯೊಂದರಲ್ಲಿ ಕೊರತೆ ಎದ್ದು ಕಾಣುತ್ತದೆ.ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣವಾಗಿ ಯಾವುದನ್ನು ಅವನು ಆನಂದಿಸಲಾರ. ಅವನು ಒಂದು ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಯಿಂದ ಇನ್ನೊಂದು ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗೆ ಸಾಗುತ್ತ ಬಂದಿದ್ದಾನೆ. ಇದನ್ನೇ ನಾವು ನಾಗರಿಕತೆ ಎಂದು ಕರೆದರೂ ನಮ್ಮಲ್ಲಿನ ಮೂಲ ಸ್ವಭಾವದಲ್ಲಿ ಯಾವುದೇ ಬದಲಾವಣೆ ಆಗಿಲ್ಲ. ಈ ಬೇವು-ಬೆಲ್ಲವನ್ನು ಬೇರ್ಪಡಿಸುವ ಸತತ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನದಲ್ಲಿ ಮಾನವ ನಿರತನಾಗಿದ್ದಾನೆ. ಇದು ಎಲ್ಲ ಸಾಮಾನ್ಯ ಮನುಷ್ಯರ ಕಥೆಯಾದರೆ, ಅಕ್ಕನಂತವರಿಗೆ ಇದರಿಂದ ಹೊರ ಬರಲು ಸಾದ್ಯವಾಗಿತ್ತು. ಹಾಗಾಗಿ ಸಾಧಾರಣ ಮನುಷ್ಯನ ನಿಲುವನ್ನು ವಿಮರ್ಶಿಸಲು ಸಾಧ್ಯವಾಯಿತು. ಆಗ ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಯಾದದ್ದು ಈ ವಚನ. ಅದರ ಜನಪ್ರಿಯತೆಯೇ ಸಾರಿ ಹೇಳುತ್ತದೆ ಅದರ ಸಾರವನ್ನು ಯಾರೂ ಅಲ್ಲಗೆಳೆದಿಲ್ಲ ಎಂದು.

ಆದರೂ ನಮಗೇಕೆ ಮರೆವು? ಮನಸ್ಸು ಯಾವಾಗಲೂ ಹಿತವನ್ನೇ ಬಯಸುತ್ತದೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅದು ಸಂಪೂರ್ಣ ದೊರಕದಿದ್ದಾಗ ನಾವು ಗೊಣಗುತ್ತೇವೆ, ಇದೊಂದು ಸರಿಯಿದ್ದರೆ ಚೆನ್ನಾಗಿರುತ್ತಿತ್ತು ಎಂದು. ನೋವು ನಲಿವಿನಲ್ಲಿ ಸಮಾನತೆ ಕಾಣಲು ನಮಗೆ ಅಕ್ಕಳಿಗಿದ್ದ ಪ್ರಬುದ್ಧತೆ ಬೇಕಾಗಿಲ್ಲ. ಅವಳ ವಚನ ನೆನಪಿಸಿಕೊಂಡರೆ ಸಾಕು. ನಮ್ಮ ಮಾನಸಿಕ ಕಿರಿಕಿರಿ ತಗ್ಗುತ್ತದೆ.

ಮತ್ತೆ ಯಾರಾದರೂ ಜೊತೆ ಮಾತಾಡುವಾಗ, ಯಾವುದಾದರೂ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆ ಪ್ರಸ್ತಾಪಿಸುವ ಮುನ್ನ, ಒಮ್ಮೆ ಅಕ್ಕನ ಪ್ರಶ್ನೆ ನಿಮಗೆ ನೀವೇ ಕೇಳಿಕೊಳ್ಳಿ. ಈ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಯನ್ನು ಸಂತೋಷದಿಂದ ಬೇರ್ಪಡಿಸಲು ಸಾಧ್ಯವೇ? ಅಷ್ಟಕ್ಕೇ ಸುಮ್ಮನಾಗಬೇಡಿ. ನಿಮ್ಮ ಮಗುವಿಗೂ ಅಕ್ಕನ ವಚನ ಕೇಳಿಸಿ. ಅದಕ್ಕೆ ಇಂದು ಅರ್ಥವಾಗದೆ ಹೋಗಬಹುದು. ಆದರೆ ಸರಿ ಸಮಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಅದರ ಪ್ರಯೋಜನವಾಗಬಹುದು.

Not Greece, it is Germany we should know better

With Greece in news, the world seems to be making efforts to understand the Greeks better. Why they are in trouble and what can be done and so on.

In a financial mess, it is not just the irresponsible borrower; the irresponsible lender also has equal contribution. In this case, the biggest lender to Greece is Germany. It was Germany’s tax payer’s money at risk. Though Germany is going to be the biggest loser now I suppose no one (apart from Germans) is sympathetic towards it. The reasons lie in the history too.

It was Germany at the heart of the two world wars. If there was no Stalin, Hitler’s ambitions would have become a reality. If we go two thousand years past into the history, Romans called them as Barbarians. It becomes apparent that they did not share any great relationship with their neighbors.

Today’s Germans are very efficient at their work. The machinery produced by them is world class. Their economy produces a surplus. But what do you do with that surplus money which goes on accumulating every year? It is lent to neighbors and foreign countries. 

One of the borrowers was Greece and when they were not able to repay their loans, Germany insisted Greece should cut its Govt. spending and implement tax reforms to run a budget surplus. Greece did to good extent; deploying austerity measures had put a greater pressure on its economy. Its unemployment went up. Its economy began to shrink. Its public felt they are not respected in the European Union and during the recent election they chose a leftist Govt. which opposed austerity. Its new leader has to confront Germany opposing to cut its Govt. spending. Even if Greece runs a budget surplus, it would take more than 30 years to settle debt. With a kind of social unrest, there is no patience left in Greeks to struggle for another three decades for the mistakes done in the past. They are angry with European Union (in which Germany is the biggest player) for asking for further budget cuts. So it reflected in the last week’s vote too. They want to leave the union.

What right Germany has in advocating how Greece should run its Govt.? If its is because Greece owes money to Germany, why Germany was not cautious while lending and let the debt balloon become bigger? That seems to be the question many are asking now. And here history comes alive again. Germany had led to physical destruction and loss of capital during world wars and now some think they are doing it economically with countries like Greece.

But the real problem lied in the formation of Euro currency. It is becoming clear now that without political integration, a common currency won’t work. All the countries in the European Union had their respective Govt.’s. Their policy approaches were different, so were the risk profiles. When they formed a union with a common central bank (ECB) and a common currency (Euro), the inefficient countries in the union would become losers. Since all of the union becomes one market with a common currency, those countries who produce quality goods at a competitive price would gain and those who cannot would see their domestic production reduce. To make up for that, local Govt. will have to step up public spending to keep the economy going. One country's exports are another country's imports. Germany’s surplus had to cause deficit somewhere else. Greece, Spain and Italy had suffered. That is the argument of few noted economists.

If and when Greece comes out of the union, it will pay its price with a weak currency, higher rates and inflation. And it would also set stage for other countries to leave the union too. And if the idea of Euro gets scrapped someday, Germany may not run the same surplus then. But this experiment is already affecting lives of many including those victims in Greece, all of them did not live at Govt.’s expense but everyone will pay the price of inflation and unemployment.

Two world wars ended after millions last their lives. This economic crisis too will end after leaving many homeless and jobless. It was US who became a superpower after the world wars ended. Germany fought hard in those world wars too but was not the victor. Now the fallout of Euro is making Dollar only stronger. Patience is a virtue. It always pays to mind your own business and avoid becoming over ambitious. Now Germany after losing its hard earned capital on Greece still does not get a good name in the pages of history.

Those who do not learn from history tend to repeat it, so goes a saying.