ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಪ್ರತಿಯೊಬ್ಬರಲ್ಲಿ ಅಂತರ್ಗತ

ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಯ ಪ್ರಕ್ರಿಯೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಹಾಗೂ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಪ್ರಕೃತಿ ಮಾತೆಯನ್ನು ಮೀರಿಸುವರಾರು? ಹಗಲು-ರಾತ್ರಿ, ಹುಟ್ಟು-ಸಾವುಗಳ ಸರಣಿಯನ್ನು ಮುಂದುವರೆಸುಕೊಂಡು ಹೋಗುವುದರ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ತರ ತರಹದ ಹೂವು ಅರಳಿಸಿ, ಕಾಮನಬಿಲ್ಲು  ಮೂಡಿಸಿ, ಏಕತಾನತೆಯಲ್ಲೂ ವೈವಿಧ್ಯತೆಯನ್ನು ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಸುವ ಪ್ರಕೃತಿ ಮಾತೆ ತನ್ನ  ಮಕ್ಕಳಲ್ಲಿ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯನ್ನು ತುಂಬಿಯೇ ಜೀವ ಸ್ಪರ್ಶ ಕೊಡುತ್ತಾಳೆ. ಇದನ್ನು ವೈಜ್ಞಾನಿಕ ದೃಷ್ಟಿಯಿಂದ ಹೇಳುವುದಾದರೆ, ಸೂರ್ಯನಿಂದ ಸಿಡಿದು ಹೋದ ತುಂಡು ಭೂಮಿಯಾಯ್ತು. ಈ ಭೂಮಿಯ ಸಂಪನ್ಮೂಲಗಳಿಂದ ಜೀವ ತಳೆದದ್ದು ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಭೂವಾಸಿಗಳು - ಏಕ ಕೋಶ ಜೀವಿಯಾದ ಅಮೀಬದಿಂದ ಸಂಕೀರ್ಣ ದೇಹ ಹೊಂದಿರುವ ಮನುಜನವರೆಗೆ. ಹಾಗಾಗಿ ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಯ ಪ್ರಕ್ರಿಯೆಯನ್ನು ಈ ಜೀವಿಗಳು ಪ್ರಕೃತಿಯ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ಮುಂದುವರೆಸುಕೊಂಡು ಹೋಗಲು ಸಾಧ್ಯವಾಯ್ತು. ಪುರಾಣಗಳನ್ನು ಆಧರಿಸಿ ಹೇಳುವುದಾದರೆ, ಬ್ರಹ್ಮ ತಾನು ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಸಿದ ಬ್ರಹ್ಮಾಂಡದ ಅಣು ಅಣುವಿನಲ್ಲೂ ಪ್ರತಿರೂಪವಾಗಿದ್ದಾನೆ (ಅಹಂ ಬ್ರಹ್ಮಾಸ್ಮಿ). 

ಹೇಳುವ ರೀತಿ ಬೇರೆ ಬೇರೆಯಾದರೂ ವಿಷಯ ಒಂದೇ. ಜೀವ ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಯ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ಹೊಸತನ್ನು ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಸುವ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಪ್ರತಿಯೊಬ್ಬರಲ್ಲಿ ಅಂತರ್ಗತ. ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯನ್ನು ಅಭಿವ್ಯಕ್ತಿಗೊಳಿಸುವ ಮಾರ್ಗ ಮತ್ತು ಸ್ತರಗಳು ಬೇರೆಯಾಗಬಹುದು. ಆದರೆ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯೇ ಇಲ್ಲದ ಜೀವಿ ಜನ್ಮ ತಾಳಿಲ್ಲ. ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಪ್ರಕೃತಿಯಷ್ಟೇ ಸಹಜ.

ನೀವು ಯಾವುದಾದರನ್ನು ಹೊಸತಾಗಿ ಕಲಿಯುತ್ತಿದ್ದ ದಿನಗಳನ್ನು ನೆನಪಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳಿ. ಅದು ನಿಮ್ಮಲ್ಲಿ ಉತ್ಸಾಹ ಮೂಡಿಸುತ್ತಿತ್ತು. ನೀವು ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲರಾಗಿದ್ರಿ. ಆದರೆ ಅದೇ ಸಾಕಷ್ಟು ಸಲ ಪುನರಾವರ್ತನೆಯಾದ ಮೇಲೆ ಅದು ಕೆಲಸವಾಗಿ ಪರಿವರ್ತನೆಯಾಯ್ತು. ಉದಾಹರಣೆಗೆ, ವಾಹನ ಓಡಿಸುವುದು ಕಲಿಯುವುದು ನಿಮಗೆ ಆರಂಭದಲ್ಲಿ ಉತ್ಸಾಹ ತುಂಬುತ್ತಿತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ಅದನ್ನೇ ಕರ್ತವ್ಯ, ಜೀವನೋಪಾಯ ಮಾಡಿಕೊಂಡ ವಾಹನ ಚಾಲಕನಿಗೆ ಅದರಲ್ಲಿ ಕ್ರೀಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಕಾಣದೇ ಹೋಗಬಹುದು. ಅದೇ ರೀತಿ ವಿಚಾರ ಮಾಡಿದರೆ, ಒಬ್ಬ ಬರಹಗಾರ ಜೀವನ ಪೂರ್ತಿ ಬರೆಯುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಅದನ್ನೇ ಪ್ರತಿ ದಿನ ಮಾಡುತ್ತಾನೆ. ಅದು ಮಾತ್ರ ಕ್ರೀಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಆಗಲು ಹೇಗೆ ಸಾಧ್ಯ? ಒಬ್ಬ ಗೃಹಿಣಿಯನ್ನು ಗಮನಿಸಿ ನೋಡಿ. ಆಕೆಯ ಮನೆಯ ಮುಂದಿನ ರಂಗೋಲಿ ಪ್ರತಿ ದಿನವು ವಿಭಿನ್ನ. ಕಲಿತು ಪ್ರಯೋಗಿಸುವ ಹೊಸ ರುಚಿ, ತನ್ನ ಮಕ್ಕಳಿಗೆ ಕಟ್ಟುವ ವಿಧ ವಿಧವಾದ ಜುಟ್ಟುಗಳು ಆಕೆಯ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯ ಕನ್ನಡಿಯಲ್ಲದೇ ಇನ್ನೇನು?

ಏಕತಾನತೆ ಪ್ರತೀ ಕೆಲಸದಲ್ಲಿದೆ. ಹಾಗೆ ನೋಡಿದರೆ ಏಕತಾನತೆಗೇ ಹೆಚ್ಚಿನ ಬೆಲೆ. ಬೇರೆ ಬೇರೆ ವೇಳೆಗೆ ಬರುವ ಬಸ್ಸು ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲ ಎನ್ನಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುವುದಿಲ್ಲ. ರೈಲು ಯಾವಾಗಲು ಚುಕ್ಕು-ಬುಕ್ಕು ಅನ್ನದೇ ಬೇರೆ ಬೇರೆ ಶಬ್ದ ಹೊರಡಿಸಿದರೆ ನೀವು ಬೆಚ್ಚಿ ಬಿದ್ದೀರಿ. ಕ್ಷಣ ಕ್ಷಣಕ್ಕೆ ಮನಸ್ಸು ಬದಲಾಯಿಸುವ ಬೆಕ್ಕು, ನಾಯಿಯಂತೆ ನಂಬುಗೆಯ ಪ್ರಾಣಿ ಎನ್ನಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳುವುದಿಲ್ಲ. ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ತರುವ ಬದಲಾವಣೆ ಯಾವಾಗಲೂ ಹಿತ ತರದೇ, ಫಜೀತಿಗೂ ಈಡು ಮಾಡಬಹುದು. ತುಂಬಾ ಹೊಸ ಹೊಸ ಪ್ರಯೋಗಗಳನ್ನು ಮಾಡುವ ವ್ಯಕ್ತಿ ಶ್ರೀಮಂತನಾಗಲಾರ. ಹಣ ಉಳಿಸಿಕೊಳ್ಳಲು, ಬೆಳೆಸಲು ಕೆಲವೇ ದಾರಿಗಳಿವೆ. ಅವುಗಳನ್ನು ಮೀರಿ ಮಾಡುವ ಹೊಸ ಪ್ರಯೋಗ ಹಣ ಕಳೆದು ಕೊಳ್ಳುವ ಸುಲಭ ಮಾರ್ಗಗಳಾಗಬಹುದು. ಯಾರೂ ನಡೆಯದ ದಾರಿಯಲ್ಲಿರುವ ಅವಘಡಗಳನ್ನು ಕಂಡವರಾರು? ಹೊಸ ಪ್ರಯೋಗಗಳಲ್ಲಿ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಇರಬಹುದು ಆದರೆ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ಹೊಸ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳು ಉದ್ಭವವಾಗಬಹುದು. ತುಂಬಾ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲರಾಗಿರುವ ವ್ಯಕ್ತಿಗಳನ್ನು ಗಮನಿಸಿ ನೋಡಿ. ಅವರು ಕಲಾ ಪ್ರಪಂಚವನ್ನೇ ಆಳುತ್ತಿರಬಹುದು. ಆದರೆ ಅವರ ವೈಯಕ್ತಿಕ ಜೀವನ ತುಂಬಾ ಅಸ್ತ-ವ್ಯಸ್ತವಾಗಿದ್ದಿರಬಹುದು. ಊರಿಗೆ ದೊರೆಯಾದರೂ ಮನಗೆ ಮಗನಾಗದೇ ಹೋದ ಎಷ್ಟು ಜನರಿಲ್ಲ? 

ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಚೌಕಟ್ಟಿನ ಆಚೆಗೆ ವಿಚಾರ ಮಾಡುವುದನ್ನು ಪ್ರಚೋದಿಸುತ್ತದೆ. ಆದರೆ ಚೌಕಟ್ಟುಗಳನ್ನು ಮೀರಿದ ಬದುಕು ಸಮಾಜಕ್ಕೆ ಅಪಥ್ಯ. ಹೊಸದನ್ನು ಸಂಶೋದಿಸಿದ ವ್ಯಕ್ತಿ ಯಶಸ್ಸು ಕಂಡರೆ ಆತ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯ ಆದರ್ಶ ಪುರುಷ. ಹೊಸತನ ತರುವಲ್ಲಿ ಆತ ಎಡವಿದರೆ ಬೀಳುವುದು ನೇಪಥ್ಯದ ಪ್ರಪಾತಕ್ಕೆ. ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆಯನ್ನು ನಾನು ದೂರುತ್ತಿಲ್ಲ. ಬದಲಾಗಿ ಅದು ಯಾವಾಗಲೂ ಒಳ್ಳೆಯದೇ ಮಾಡುತ್ತೆ ಅನ್ನುವ ನಂಬಿಕೆ ಹೋಗಲಾಡಿಸುವ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನ ಮಾಡುತ್ತಿದ್ದೇನೆ.

ನಿಮ್ಮಲ್ಲಿ ಅಥವಾ ನಿಮ್ಮ ಕುಟುಂಬದವರಲ್ಲಿ ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ಕಡಿಮೆ ಎನಿಸಿದರೆ ನೆನಪಿಡಿ ಅದು ಎಲ್ಲರಲ್ಲಿ ಅಂತರ್ಗತ. ಅದನ್ನು ಸಾವಕಾಶವಾಗಿ ಹೊರಗೆಳೆದು ಪೋಷಿಸಬಹುದು. ಅದಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ನೀವು ದುಡ್ಡು ಖರ್ಚು ಮಾಡಬೇಕಾಗಿಲ್ಲ. ಬದಲಾಗಿ ಪ್ರಕೃತಿಯ ಮಡಿಲಲ್ಲಿ ಬೆರೆತು ಹೋಗಬೇಕು. ಪ್ರಕೃತಿಯ ವೈವಿಧ್ಯ ನಿಮ್ಮ ಮನದ ಹೂವನ್ನೂ ಅರಳಿಸುತ್ತದೆ. ಹೊಸದನ್ನು ಸೃಷ್ಟಿಸುವ ಕಲೆ ನಿಮಗೆ ಒಲಿದು ಬರುತ್ತೆ. ಲೌಕಿಕ ಜೀವನಕ್ಕಿಂತ ಮಿಗಿಲಾದ ವರ್ಣಮಯ ಬದುಕು ನಿಮ್ಮದಾಗಬಹುದು. 

ಅಂತಹ ಯಾವ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನಕ್ಕೂ ನಿಮ್ಮ ಮನ ಬಗ್ಗದೋ, ನೀವು ಚಿಂತಿಸಬೇಕಾಗಿಲ್ಲ. ಚಿಂತಿಸಿ ಪ್ರಯೋಜನವೂ ಇಲ್ಲ. ಕ್ರಿಯಾಶೀಲತೆ ತರುವ ಆನಂದ ನೀವು ಕಳೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳಬಹುದು ಹಾಗೆಯೇ ಅದು ತರುವ ಸಮಸ್ಯೆಗಳು ನಿಮ್ಮ ಹತ್ತಿರ ಸುಳಿಯದು.

Making portfolio work for us

Do not put all eggs in one basket – so goes an old investment saying. While aiming for rewards, risks need to be managed too. Diversifying risks with a portfolio is what all of us (including the big fund managers) do but there are few aspects (learned hard way) which help us get make portfolio perform better.

Portfolio theory is as old as investment theory itself. I am not intending to change anything there but I would like to touch upon practical aspects and some of the best practices to follow while building and managing a portfolio.

1.    Having unrelated stocks in the portfolio: Let us say you already have a bank stock. Adding one more bank stock to your portfolio, though it is a separate company, would increase the exposure to same sector. When there are policy impacts, all banks tend to react in a same way at least in direction if not in magnitude. Similarly investing in related sectors like steel and coal (where in one sector feeds the other so have a stronger correlation) need to be avoided. They fail the purpose of diversification as risk concentration still remains high. Do your research and understand how those companies run businesses before you commit funds. Ensure concentration in any stock or sector is no more than 20%.

2.    Avoiding fully invested strategy: When market goes down due to some crisis, all stocks tend to go down. If you are fully invested you cannot make use of the opportunity. When your portfolio has done well and if you have booked profits, you do not have to invest that money quickly. Staying on cash helps when unforeseen event strikes (which cannot be predicted) or when there routine-technical down cycles. Cash or equivalent liquid holdings can be 20% to 50% of your portfolio. That way when the down cycle runs for months, you will not run out of money to invest. When everyone loses hope, stock valuations will be great and you should not be in a position of not having money to invest.

3.    Too much diversification is difficult to manage: It would be ideal to have 5-6 stocks in your portfolio at a time and probably few more on your investment radar but without funds committed. Unless it is your full time job, it would be difficult to track more than handful stocks at a time. It is better to get to know the stocks well, and if some stock gives you a miss, better cut it off completely and move on. We need to keep the pipeline full to ensure we would not run out of ideas when the current investments either saturate or gives us a miss.

4.    Use fundamentals while choosing the stock and technical to time entry and exit: Before committing funds one has to ensure whole of the story is good. Lower P/E ratio and higher earnings growth is what one should ensure. Higher P/E stock would mean it has already got attention of the market, only way it can increase its value is by expanding its earning. If earning gives a miss, this stock will become a double edged sword as P/E multiple will shrink too. It is a risky proportion. At the same time, investing in low P/E but higher earnings growth potential is like turbo-boosting your investment. First earnings will grow so will be the stock price, then P/E multiple will expand attracting market attention taking the stock to expensive valuation giving you an exit point. Identifying such stocks is a very tedious task but it is worth the effort. You need to read in between those financial statements, understand products, customers, competitors to the level of those running those companies understand them and also run your own checks (such as visiting the project locations, seeing things first hand etc.) apart from scanning publicly available information. This demands good time and involvement of yours. So I say limit the number of stocks you invest in. Selecting the right stock is half job done.

The other half of the job involves identifying the entry points, holding period and the exit points. Technical analysis such as moving averages, support-resistances in chart trend patterns, candle stick charts for identifying top or bottoms and trend reversals can help a lot. F&O data too can act as a verification measure for your expectation. But remember, no matter how much effort you put in, technical analysis does not guarantee success. Since you have put money in fundamentally good stock, your risks are limited if technical analysis does not work for you. And staying on cash helps you to rectify mistakes if you did not get it right. Technical analysis is to maximize returns by getting to know the relatively short term acts better but should not be the criteria for stock selection.

Summary: While above the pointers help, it takes many years of practice to make it really work for you. One should have realistic expectations on the portfolio performance too. Remember, lower the risk, lower is the reward. Riskier portfolio and strategies depend a lot on the luck, they earn run away profits sometime but it cannot be repeated so not sustainable over long period. The first objective in investment is to minimize the risks and the second priority is to pocket the profits. This way your investments will have a longer life when things do not go right.

Risking life to score few extra points may not be the best thing to do always. Ditto applies to the investment world too.

(Disclaimer: This article can make a good investor a better one but cannot turn a bad investor into a good one)

Is there no end to Rupee’s fall?

Despite lots of tailwind to Indian economy such as lower oil prices, Rupee’s fall continues. Is there no end to Rupee’s fall?

The short answer is it depends on RBI and the Govt. of India.

I will attempt the long answer too.

1.    Thanks to the rout in commodity prices. India’s imports are falling. But at the same time India’s exports too are falling. So the trade deficit is not coming down keeping the same pressure on Rupee. In the last one year, trade deficit ranged from $6B a month to $16B. On average it would be around $10B of trade deficit a month. It would mean approx. 5-8% of devaluation is assured every year for the Indian currency. When the imports were high in the past, pressure on Rupee was even higher. See the chart. From 45 a dollar in 2009, Rupee is devalued to 65 in 2015. That is a 45% fall in six years.

USD to Rupee exchange rate. Source:Investng.com

2.    ‘Winner takes it all’ in the global currency market. In 2009, it took 1.5 USD to buy a Euro, now it takes 1.1 to buy the same. And the latest victim is China. Its exports are falling so its currency cannot remain strong. It joined the emerging nation’s currencies in the fall despite trillions of dollars in forex reserves. RBI, are you taking note?

3.    During the last year, RBI added around $70B to forex reserves. Much of the incoming dollars ended up with RBI. Had they remained in the circulation, it would have taken some pressure off from Rupee. No, RBI wants to build a war chest. What war? When China’s currency fell with a $2 trillion dollar reserves, what kind of war RBI wants to fight with $350B reserves? Strength in economy brings strength to currency and not the reserves. While bringing strength in the economy is Govt.’s job, RBI tries to make up for the poor performance of Govt. by adding to reserves.

4.    What is the purpose of forex reserves? Primarily, we need to cover for trade deficit. $350B is enough to cover next 35 months of trade deficit. Then why keep adding to it than looking for ways to balance the trade? We need to cover our foreign loan payments too. And RBI wants to make Rupee fully convertible so it wants to take reserves. While they have a purpose in buying the dollars, when our currency is already under pressure, it is like ripping the consumers of this nation from the benefits of lower commodity prices. Had our currency traded at 50 a dollar, Petrol prices would have been below Rs.50 a liter and Gold would be below Rs.20,000 for 10 grams. That is the price we would have paid in the international market had we managed the currency better. It would have helped the balance of trade situation too.

5.    Let us come to capital outflow. When an economy is stronger, why the capital flows will reverse? If you cannot assure that why bring in FDI? Higher dollar reserves help only one country, USA.

6.    Will weaker currency aid exports? If so, why India’s exports are falling? All of the demand is not price dependent. That is the basics of trade. For export oriented countries, a weaker currency may help in boosting income but for India with its imports higher than exports, weaker consumer beats the consumer. Losses are outweighed in comparison to the benefits the exporter is getting.

If RBI does not stop buying dollars, Rupee’s weakness will continue. It needs to stop covering up for Govt.’s mistakes. If there is a huge fall in Rupee, let Govt. take the final blame and responsibility. If you cannot make them accountable, they would never change their spending patterns.

When the major economies are fighting deflation, India a developing country still has 4%+ inflation. And it might be clear to you now who is manufacturing this inflation? It is our central bank hand in gloves with the Govt. of India. Buying dollars and printing Rupee does not help if underlying economy does not improve. China has proved it. But we want to follow China and repeat the mistake. In future, if Rupee takes 100 bugs to buy a dollar, you know who let it happen.

While Rajan has done a good job of bringing inflation from 10% levels to 4-5% levels, it is still not an extraordinary job when Japan and Europe have 0-1% inflation, US and China have 1-2% inflation. When it comes to currency, there is only one winner ruling the world, it is US Dollar. And it is surely behind Rajan's control. But when it comes forex reserves, he has full control and he prefers to buy them like we common people buy gold as reserve and stare at our misfortunes.