ಅನುವಾದಿತ ಕಥೆ: ಏನು ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸು? (ಮೂಲ: ರಸ್ಕಿನ್ ಬಾಂಡ್)

ಒಬ್ಬ ಮುದುಕ, ಆತ ಬೆನ್ನು ಪೂರ್ತಿ ಬಾಗಿದ ಭಿಕ್ಷುಕ. ಅವನದು ಉದ್ದನೇಯ ಬಿಳಿ ಗಡ್ಡ, ಗುಳಿ ಬಿದ್ದ ಕಣ್ಣುಗಳು. ಆತ ನಾನು ಕೂತಿದ್ದ ಲಿಚ್ಛಿ ಹಣ್ಣಿನ ಮರದ ರೆಂಬೆಯ ಕೆಳಗಡೆ ನಿಂತು, ತಲೆ ಎತ್ತಿ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ನೋಡಿದ.

'ಏನು ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸು?' ಆತ ಕೇಳಿದ.

ಬೀದಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಹಾದು ಹೋಗುವ ಒಬ್ಬ ಮುದುಕನ ಆ ಪ್ರಶ್ನೆ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ಚಕಿತಗೊಳಿಸಿತು.

'ಏನು ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸು?' ಆತ ಮತ್ತೆ ಕೇಳಿದ.

'ನನಗೆ ನೆನಪಿಲ್ಲ' ನಾನು ಹೇಳಿದೆ. 'ನನಗೆ ನಿನ್ನೆ ರಾತ್ರಿ ಯಾವ ಕನಸೂ ಬಿದ್ದ ನೆನಪಿಲ್ಲ'.

'ಅದಲ್ಲ ನಾನು ಕೇಳಿದ್ದು. ಅದು ನಿನಗೂ ಗೊತ್ತು. ನೀನು ಒಬ್ಬ ಕನಸುಗಾರ ಎನ್ನುವುದು ಕಾಣುತ್ತಿದೆ. ಇದು ಲಿಚ್ಛಿ ಮರ ಹಣ್ಣು ಬಿಡುವ ಕಾಲವಲ್ಲ. ಆದರೆ ನೀನು ಈ ಮಧ್ಯಾಹ್ನದ ವೇಳೆ, ಇದರಲ್ಲಿ ಕೂತು ಕನಸು ಕಾಣುತ್ತಿರುವೆ.'

'ನನಗೆ ಇಲ್ಲಿ ಕೂಡುವುದು ಇಷ್ಟ' ನಾನು ಹೇಳಿದೆ ನಾನು ಒಬ್ಬ ಕನಸುಗಾರ ಎನ್ನುವ ವಿಷಯವನ್ನು ಒಪ್ಪಿಕೊಳ್ಳದೆ. ಬೇರೆ ಹುಡುಗರಿಗೆ ಕನಸುಗಳಿರಲಿಲ್ಲ, ಅವರ ಕೈಯಲ್ಲಿ ಕಲ್ಲು ಬೀಸುವ ಕವಣೆಗಳಿದ್ದವು.

'ಒಂದು ಕನಸು, ಬೇರೆ ಎಲ್ಲದಕ್ಕಿಂತ ಅದೇ ಬೇಕೆನ್ನುವ ಕನಸು ನಿನಗಿಲ್ಲವೇ?' ಮುದುಕ ಕೇಳಿದ.

'ಇದೆ' ನಾನು ತಡವಿಲ್ಲದೆ ಹೇಳಿದೆ. 'ನನಗೆ ನನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಜಾಗ, ಒಂದು ಕೋಣೆ ಬೇಕು'

'ಓ! ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಜಾಗ, ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಮರ, ಅವೆಲ್ಲ ಒಂದೇ. ಆದರೆ ಎಲ್ಲರಿಗೂ ಅವರದೇ ಆದ ಜಾಗ ಸಿಗಲು ಸಾಧ್ಯವಿಲ್ಲ, ಅದೂ ಜನರಿಂದ ತುಂಬಿದಂಥ ನಮ್ಮ ಈ ದೇಶದಲ್ಲಿ'

'ಕೇವಲ ಒಂದು ಚಿಕ್ಕ ಕೋಣೆ'

'ಹಾಗಾದರೆ ನೀನು ಈಗ ಇರುವ ಕೋಣೆ ಎಂಥದ್ದು?'

'ಅದು ದೊಡ್ಡ ಕೋಣೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅದು ನನಗೊಬ್ಬನಿಗಲ್ಲ. ನನ್ನ ಸೋದರ, ಸೋದರಿ ಜೊತೆಗೆ ಅದನ್ನು ಹಂಚಿ ಕೊಳ್ಳಬೇಕು. ಅದಲ್ಲದೆ ಊರಿಗೆ ಚಿಕ್ಕಮ್ಮ ಬಂದಾಗ ಉಳಿದುಕೊಳ್ಳುವುದು ಅದೇ ಕೋಣೆಯಲ್ಲೇ!'

'ಸರಿ. ನಿನಗೆ ನಿಜವಾಗಲೂ ಬೇಕಿರುವುದು  ಸ್ವಾತಂತ್ರ್ಯ. ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಮರ, ಕೋಣೆ. ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಎನಿಸುವ ಒಂದು ಜಾಗ. '

'ಹೌದು, ಅಷ್ಟೇ'

'ಅಷ್ಟೇ? ಅದೇ ಎಲ್ಲ. ಅದು ನಿನಗೆ ಸಿಕ್ಕ ದಿನ ನಿನಗೆ ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸು ನನಸಾದ ಹಾಗೆ'

'ಅದು ಸಿಗುವ ಬಗೆ ಹೇಗೆ?'

'ನನಗೆ ಯಾವುದೇ ಮಂತ್ರ-ವಿದ್ಯೆ ಗೊತ್ತಿಲ್ಲ ನನ್ನ ಗೆಳೆಯ. ನಾನು ಒಬ್ಬ ದೇವತಾ ಪುರುಷನಾಗಿದ್ದರೆ ನಿನ್ನ ಜೊತೆ ಕಾಲ ಹರಣ ಮಾಡುತ್ತಿದ್ದೇನೆಯೇ? ನೀನು ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸಿನ ಸಾಕಾರಕ್ಕಾಗಿ ಪ್ರಯತ್ನಿಸಬೇಕು, ಹಗಲು-ಇರುಳು ಎನ್ನದೇ. ಆ ದಾರಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಬರುವ ಅಡೆ-ತಡೆಗಳಿಗೆ ಅವಕಾಶ ಕೊಡಕೂಡದು.  ಅಲ್ಲಿಗೆ ನೀನು ಬಹಳಷ್ಟನ್ನು ಕಡಿಮೆ ಸಮಯದಲ್ಲಿ ನೀರಿಕ್ಷಸಿಸದಿದ್ದರೆ, ನಿನಗೆ ನಿನ್ನ ಸ್ವಾತಂತ್ರ್ಯ, ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಜಾಗ, ಕೋಣೆ ದೊರಕುವುದು. ಆದರೆ ಕಷ್ಟಕರ ಸಮಯ ಶುರುವಾಗುವುದು ಅಲ್ಲಿಂದ.’

'ಅಲ್ಲಿಂದ?'

'ಹೌದು. ಏಕೆಂದರೆ, ದೊರಕಿದ್ದು ಸುಲಭದಲ್ಲಿ ಕಳೆದುಕೊಳ್ಳಬಹುದು, ಅದು ಬೇರೆಯವರ ಸ್ವತ್ತಾಗಬಹುದು. ನೀನು ದುರಾಸೆಗೆ ಬಿದ್ದರೆ ಅಥವಾ ಉಪೇಕ್ಷೆ ಮಾಡಿದರೆ, ಇಲ್ಲವೇ ಎಲ್ಲವನ್ನು ಲಘುವಾಗಿ ಪರಿಗಣಿಸಿದರೆ, ಓಹ್!,  ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸು ಹಠಾತ್ತಾಗಿ, ಇನ್ನಿಲ್ಲದಂತೆ ಕಣ್ಮರೆಯಾಗಿಬಿಡುತ್ತದೆ.'

'ಅದೆಲ್ಲ ನಿನಗೆ ಹೇಗೆ ಗೊತ್ತು?'

'ಏಕೆಂದರೆ ನನಗೆ ಒಂದು ಕನಸು ಇತ್ತು. ಅದನ್ನು ನಾನು ಕಳೆದುಕೊಂಡೆ'

'ನೀನು ಎಲ್ಲ ಕಳೆದುಕೊಂಡೆಯ?'

'ಹೌದು. ನನ್ನನ್ನು ನೋಡು ಗೆಳೆಯ. ನಾನು ಒಬ್ಬ ರಾಜನ ಹಾಗೆ ಕಾಣುವೇನೆ? ನನಗೆ ಬೇಕಿದ್ದೆಲ್ಲ ಇತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ನನಗೆ  ಇನ್ನೂ ಬೇಕಿತ್ತು. ಮತ್ತಷ್ಟೂ ... ನಿನಗೆ ನಿನ್ನ ಕೋಣೆ ಸಿಕ್ಕ ಮೇಲೆ, ನಿನಗೆ  ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಕಟ್ಟಡ ಇದ್ದರೆ ಚೆನ್ನ ಅನಿಸುತ್ತದೆ. ಅಲ್ಲಿಂದ ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಸೀಮೆ, ರಾಜ್ಯ, ಸಾಮ್ರಾಜ್ಯ ಹೀಗೆ ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸು ವಿಸ್ತಾರಗೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತ ಹೋಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಅದು ಸಾಕಾರಗೊಂಡ ಹಾಗೆಲ್ಲ ಅದನ್ನು ಉಳಿಸುಕೊಳ್ಳುವುದು ಕಷ್ಟವಾಗುತ್ತ ಹೋಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಆದರೆ ಅದನ್ನು ಕಳೆದುಕೊಂಡ ದಿನ, ನಿನಗೆ ನಿನ್ನ ಕೋಣೆಯೂ ಉಳಿದಿರುವಿದಿಲ್ಲ.'

'ನಿನಗೆ ನಿನ್ನದೇ ಆದ ಸಾಮ್ರಾಜ್ಯವಿತ್ತೇ?'

'ಅದೇ ತರಹದ್ದು. ನೀನು ನಿನ್ನ ಕನಸಿನ ಬೆನ್ನು ಹತ್ತು. ಆದರೆ ಬೇರೆಯವರ ಕನಸಿಗೆ ಅಡ್ಡಿಯಾಗಬೇಡ. ಯಾವುದೇ ಮನುಷ್ಯನ ದಾರಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಅಡ್ಡ ನಿಲ್ಲಬೇಡ. ಇನ್ನೊಬ್ಬರ ಜಾಗ, ಧರ್ಮ, ಹಾಡುಗಳನ್ನು ಕಸಿಯಬೇಡ.' ಇಷ್ಟು ಹೇಳಿದ ಆ ಮುದುಕ, ಪ್ರಯಾಸದಿಂದ ಹೆಜ್ಜೆ ಹಾಕುತ್ತ ಮೆಲ್ಲಗೆ ಕಣ್ಮರೆಯಾದ. ಹಾಗೆ ಹೋಗುವಾಗ ಅವನು ಒಂದು ಹಾಡನ್ನು ಅವನು ತನಗೆ ತಾನೇ ಗುನುಗಿಕೊಳ್ಳುತ್ತಿದ್ದ. ಆ ಹಾಡನ್ನು ನಾನು ಮೊದಲು ಎಲ್ಲೂ ಕೇಳಿಲ್ಲವಾದ್ದರಿಂದ ಅದು ಅವನದೇ ಹಾಡು ಇರಬಹುದು ಎನ್ನಿಸಿತು.

‘’ನೂರು ಕಾಲ ಬಾಳು ಓ ಗೆಳೆಯ, ವಿವೇಕದಿಂದ,
ಹಾಡು ಕಸಿಯಬೇಡ ನೀನು ಬೇರೆಯವರಿಂದ’’

ಆ ಮುದುಕನ ಬುದ್ದಿ ಮತ್ತೆಯ ಬಗ್ಗೆ ವಿಚಾರ ಮಾಡುತ್ತ ನಾನು ಗಿಡದ ರೆಂಬೆಯ ಮೇಲೆ ಕುಳಿತೆ ಇದ್ದೆ. ಒಬ್ಬ ಮನುಷ್ಯನಲ್ಲಿ ವಿವೇಕ ಹಾಗೂ ದಾರಿದ್ರ್ಯ ಒಟ್ಟಿಗೆ ಇರುವುದು ಹೇಗೆ ಸಾಧ್ಯ ಎನ್ನುವ ವಿಷಯ ನನ್ನನ್ನು ಆಶ್ಚರ್ಯ ಚಕಿತನನ್ನಾಗಿ ಮಾಡಿತ್ತು. ಅವನು ಸ್ವತಂತ್ರನಾಗಿದ್ದ, ಹಾಗೆ ನಾನು ಕೂಡ. ಮರ ಇಳಿದು ಮನೆಗೆ ಹೋಗಿ ನನಗೆ ಬೇರೆ ಕೋಣೆ ಬೇಕೆಂದು ಹಕ್ಕೊತ್ತಾಯ ಮಾಡಿ ಪಡೆದುಕೊಂಡೆ. ಸ್ವಾತಂತ್ರ್ಯ ಎನ್ನುವ ಹಕ್ಕು, ಒತ್ತಾಯ ಪೂರ್ವಕವಾಗಿಯೇ ಸಿಗುವುದು ಎನ್ನುವ ಸತ್ಯದ ಅರಿವು ನನಗಾಗ ತೊಡಗಿತ್ತು.

Deficits = Increase in Money Supply = Inflation Rate (India’s macroeconomics)

Though I studied Economics as a subject in my MBA and have read several books on the subject of Macro-economics, it took a while for me to figure out the equation, well suited for India’s macroeconomics. 

Deficits = Increase in Money Supply = Inflation. 

This is an approximate estimate and not a perfect match in numbers. Objective is to show that they influence each other. Deficit is the cause, increase in money supply is the means and rising inflation is the result.

It is the twin deficits (fiscal deficit and current account deficit) at the root which will demand an increase in money supply which will result in inflation. If you look at text book definitions, they would explain things academically but I would like to provide a different perspective on how these are interrelated.

Responsibility of managing fiscal deficit lies with Govt. And no Govt. borrows the money directly from their central banks. But this is what happens:

Fiscal Deficit Cash Flow:

o   Govt. needs excess money (deficit) to spend than its income (taxes, other incomes). It borrows from banks and public issuing bonds.

o   When bonds reach maturity phase, central bank (RBI) buys it from banks with the newly printed money. It expands its balance sheet (increases M3 Money Supply). Banks get cash for swapping the bonds.

o   Govt. borrows again from banks and newly printed money is used to fund deficit spending.

Current Account Deficit Cash Flow:

o   Trade Deficit: Difference in trade account balance resulting in international trade (India’s imports are higher than exports so there is a trade deficit)

o   Capital Flows: India sees inward cash flows through remittances, FDI etc. There is outflow too. Though this is positive, it is not big enough to pay for trade deficit.

o   Resulting deficit (negative trade balance and lesser positive cash flow) has to be funded. Businesses borrow from banks which in turn borrows from RBI. There is expansion of balance sheet in the central bank again.

These twin deficits put together will ask for new money creation and the inflation catches up with it. To check if my hypothesis holds true, let us look at data.

Year	Fiscal Deficit % of GDP	Current Account Deficit %	Both Deficits %	Inflation rate %
2009	7.8%	2.8%	10.6%	10.9%
2010	6.9%	2.8%	9.7%	12.0%
2011	5.1%	4.3%	9.4%	8.9%
2012	5.8%	4.8%	10.6%	9.3%
2013	4.9%	1.7%	6.6%	10.9%
2014	4.5%	1.3%	5.8%	6.4%
2015	3.9%	1.3%	5.2%	5.9%

Yes, though numbers do not match closely, they are comparable. Since this is an approximation and not a direct measure, they would not match. Moreover, inflation has two causes, monetary causes (which is covered in this blog post) and supply side reasons (which is not scope of this post). As the objective is to establish the relationship, it would serve the purpose and it would help us in getting an idea of how different components of macro economy influence each other.

Here is another check. During 2009-2015, the total twin deficits were approximately summed up to $1 trillion. If you look at increase in M3 money supply, it is around the same. (Below chart is in INR).

After synthesizing the data and the relationships, you will wonder how the deficit funded economic growth does not change the purchasing power of consumers as inflation robs away the benefits and the currency too deflates in the process. If deficits are low or trade is surplus, there would not be much rise in inflation while economy expands and it would result in currency appreciation too, resulting in positive benefits. Present Govt. is doing a better job at it than its predecessor. But when the larger economies are having an inflation of less than 1-2%, India recording 5-6% numbers seems high. Now you know why inflation is high and who is using that newly created money. If that money had created an equivalent asset, it would not have resulted in Inflation.

IT: Extinction of mass market and the rise of a new class

Recent technological advancements in IT industry are reshaping the whole industry. The march of automation will eliminate thousands of low skill jobs in the sector in the years to come. Already growth has stalled in most of the IT services businesses. Adapting to new measures becomes inevitable for them. Do you remember how much buzz BPO companies were making ten years ago? Observe how they got transformed over time. If not same, similar process is underway for IT industry too. Hiring in big numbers will become a thing of past. When the profitability gets hurt, industry consolidation begins, and that would consume one of the top four IT services companies in India as mergers gather pace. By then you would accept, IT has ceased to be a mass market. But that is only one side of the story. The other part is very rosy.

Take a look at the snapshot taken from Naukri.com portal. In the e-commerce sector alone, there are more open positions in the 50-75 lakh salary range than in the 25-50 range. There are 31 jobs offering a 1 crore + pay per annum. Yes, this is in India. And these are not CxO jobs. But two-three levels down from top job and many of them are techno-functional jobs. When the business opportunity is huge, employers do not mind paying a hefty package. And the expectation is high too. An average IT engineer won’t do for them. He/she should be a geek, with skills of product design and development. In other words, the person should be a world class talent. For those top talents, the pay too is world-class. These high pays will effectively reduce the gap between those working in the US and in India. Employers do not mind the geography but will care for the talent instead, that is the trend which is evident by the pay offered and the number of open positions in that range. Currently this trend is limited to niche sectors but I do expect it to rub on other sectors too, but with a time lag. So in a decade from now, it would not matter if one is working in the California or Bangalore, wage gap will shrink and pay would become comparable (not exactly same due to economic parity) for the same skill sets. A nice trend for those who have right skill sets.

Low skilled jobs will be automated and they will have to move to other sectors and the pay outside IT is catching up too. Keep in mind seventh pay commission amendments. And for the top talents, they need not line up in front of US Consulate office for a visa, they will the get right job and the pay here in India. Did you ever wonder who would buy those Rs. 2.5 Crores villas and the Jaguar, Land Rovers? They will not be limited to CxO and NRI’s, a new class is getting elevated. In the short term, it may look like they are an island in an ocean of poverty but eventually the benefits will spillover as they will take up the domestic economy too with them.

Failing start-ups and the changing India

There is lots of news in the media on the failing startups. Those who survived are downsizing, they are letting the same people go they had hired and trained few months ago. (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/startups/layoffs-in-startups-whats-the-other-side-of-indias-entrepreneurship-story/articleshow/54268511.cms). Some 4,000 employees who lost their jobs have not been paid for the last two months. Situation is bad as many of the startups which had flared up hope are running out of cash.

Very few, probably less than 10% are able to stay afloat and scale-up. Well, this is entrepreneurship and this is how it works everywhere you might say. But before that let us see what is hurting these and why they are running out of money too soon. I am no entrepreneur, do not have first hand experience of running a start-up but the this is what I found as plain facts that are hurting the infant companies.

o   Failing to come up with a marketable product: Though VC’s provide funding to start the startups, they expect these new companies to generate cash flow in a few months time. It is necessary for these start-ups to at least cover their operational expenses. When the product development gets delayed beyond expected timelines or if it fails and the next round of funding does not come in, it is time to shutter down the business.

o Overestimating the market: Steve Jobs had said no market research will help him as no one has seen the products he is building. True, his bets worked out, the whole world became his market and now we call him a genius. Had his idea failed, even his family members would have called his smart phones dumb. Market is ruthless. If product is well received, people will queue up and wait to get the new, fancy thing. Else, it is difficult to get back even the expenses of a product launch. If a product will succeed and if it succeeds, what would be the market size will just remain an estimation. There is no way to know the right market size until you get there. There is always a risk of market research becoming trash. Higher the estimate, higher is the risk.

o Excess Capacity: This is related to above fact but yet the right man-power planning is difficult to estimate too. Let us say there is a new market and there are three players. If one company grows to dominate the whole market, it needs to scale-up while the remaining two will have to downsize. One company had got it right while the other two failed. Like the Mughal princes, they fight for the crown, one will get it and the rest will have to rest in coffin or have to co-exist in a smaller capacity.

Is this a really bad situation? Yes, for those founders of failed startups, employees who have lost their jobs and the investors who burnt out their money. All businesses will have a risk-reward trade off. But the start-ups are like infants and the infant mortality numbers are high in this industry.

Get out of this grim mood, you will notice the changing face of India. We never had these many numbers of new companies getting started in the history of India. Now there are more people taking risks despite the odds of seeing success is slim. Capital is available to realize an idea while it was limited against income or collateral before. Those failing are teaching entrepreneurial lessons to a bigger population who would want to test the start-up industry. The new comers will have to come with better and realistic plans on how to make their idea work and pay their investors and not just their employees.

This phase and pain was part of the evolution which is taking place. I do not expect the number of risk takers to slow down. But I do see that the new business plans will be robust as convincing the investors and employees to believe in them will not be an easy task. It was not easy task before but the checks will become more as the idea goes through more validations. And the strongest will survive and thrive.

Henry Kissinger moment for India

Hope you know how Henry Kissinger, a US Diplomat, had helped China leapfrog into a high economic growth nation by making it a trade partner for his country. That was few decades ago. I do think the same moment has arrived for India as the world’s biggest economy US is opening its doors wide for the benefit of India. Policy shift brings Henry Kissinger moment for India. See the following news items which provide a proof to my claim.

·       Apple to explore making iPhones in India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Apple-asks-Foxconn-to-explore-making-iPhones-in-India/articleshow/54042677.cms)

·       Made in India’ F-16s on radar (http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/made-in-india-f16s-on-radar-thanks-to-fdi/article8756876.ece)

When iPhones and F-16’s are produced in India, they do bring in the technology know-how, create high-skill jobs, unleash a new industry and at the same time, international export markets too open up for goods manufactured in India. If this trend sees further strength, exciting times are ahead.

Why now?

If you follow the international news, you would have observed how relations between China and USA are strained now. Increased trade between those two countries had helped China to achieve economic strengths but lately it has become aggressive too. What is happening in South China Sea is not pleasing the US. Moreover China has developed good relations with Russia. This made US make policy shift towards India. And India seems to be a willing partner as it allowed US’s defense to use it’s naval base. Before this had happened, Modi has made several visits to US and Obama too had presided in India’s Republic day celebrations.

What would change?

Look at trade statistics. http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html.

China’s exports to US are 10 x of India’s to US. Policy shift would move some of this trade (slowly over a decade) from China’s kitty into India’s. That would boost India’s economy. Local manufacturing in India for goods which are imported now will help curb imports and boost domestic job creation. This has potential to turn India from a trade deficit country into a trade surplus nation. What India needs is job creation, skill development and access to larger markets. All these will see a phenomenal improvement when the discussions become a reality. 

Taking a look at the current scenario, it appears India is naturally a best choice for US for geographical and political reasons. So we are seeing the news pieces flowing in. But behind them, Govt’s of two large nations are at work with a serious intention. This would also mean India's relation with Russia would suffer.

Henry Kissinger and his master Nixon had paved way for a new beginning for China with the policies they had adopted. As tables are turned, it appears to be India's chance now. Some of China’s loss will become India’s gain. Not just that, increasing trade would put India into a new potential. That of a superpower, overpowering its neighbors in Asia.