Stock Holding Patterns and their impact on pricing

In the Short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
- Benjamin Graham in “The Intelligent Investor”

We all agree with legendary Benjamin Graham. But have you thought how the transformation of scale happens with transit of time?

Every business has multiple class of investors.

1. Promoters: They form the base, they might be at the forefront of running the business or passively influencing it but they do define the ethics, value and culture of the business. Mission and Vision is defined by them. All the successful companies will have promoters with great business sense & skills contributing towards the business they are promoting. Increase or decrease in holding of promoter share would change the direction of company’s value too.

2. Growth Investors: They may not be actively participating in how the business is run but they firmly believe in the business they have invested in. They are aware of business-cycles and ignore the short-term fluctuations. They would be happy getting dividends rather than cashing out their stocks. They are in perfect alignment with promoters in the ideology and likely to hold the stocks for really longer times, if not forever.

3. Value Investors: Whenever a stock is under priced, these kind of investors will step-in and hold until their target is achieved. (They might short sell when a stock is overpriced too). Their holding period would be typically range from a few months to couple of years. They are more of a theme based investors and are in play with an expectation, so they would make the difference (profit or loss) for their expectations and sell out.

4. Short term traders: These provide liquidity to the stock. They holding period could be few minutes (algo-trading) or as long as few weeks. They would get out for very small gains or losses and would move to other counters quickly. Stocks just pass through these hands when expectations are high so there is momentum for the stock. As they get out volatility gets reduced too.


Promoters and growth investors bring in stability to pricing, their increase in holding may be an indication that stock has growth potential and is not overpriced. They reducing their stake would be an alarm. Retail investors, as shown in the history, usually come when the stock is topping out. They do not have long pockets and are not equipped emotionally to handle the stress, so they are unlikely to take the price up further steeply. That would leave the value investors which are mostly mutual-funds, big-institutions (like LIC), foreign investors and high net worth individuals. They make the most out of the market in the medium term. They have access to information, they have the buying and holding power, so can move or break a stock. But how will you know who is coming in and going out?

Promoters and large investors have to declare their trading to exchange, that information would be available to public in a day or two. But remember their moves either indicate the floor price or a high (if selling) but not necessarily the momentum which is mostly driven by value investors. To know what they are doing, look at the stock holding pattern which is published on monthly basis. If mutual funds, FII are increasing their stakes, they would not be in a hurry to sell out, they would be in the stock to get some 30-50% returns at least. Become a co-investor with them, you would be able to ride the wave.

It is presumed that you would have done your research like studying the financial statements, estimating the expected earnings growth and the risks to it. If that is all convincing, get to know the promoter and the management better. Pay attention to what the management told in their quarterly calls, investor conferences or their public appearances through interviews to media. Observe if there is a positive change and quantify that in your model. And wait for the value investors to come-in, this is for the confirmation on your research and also for timing of the entry. You would behave no differently than a fund manager but your portfolio could be better (or not) than theirs. If you have done this well, assets under your management would have grown and you have honed your skills as an active investor.

If this seems lots of work, yes it is. Investing is a serious business. If you do not have time or not serious with your investments, you are better off hiring a fund manager (invest through mutual funds and not stocks directly). But if you can pull this off, it would change your fortunes. (I am still having a day job and have not made any serious money yet from markets but slowly getting the confidence to say this.)

Fiction: Dairy pages of an old Tiger

You humans call me a big cat. Well, the comparison looks awkward to me as I don’t like playing with kids or getting pampered by women. I would rather eat them for breakfast. Calling me a Tiger though look appropriate, I would have preferred a much scarier word than that. I did overhear the story of Rudyard Kipling’s ‘The Jungle Book’ in which a Tiger is the chief villain. Hmm…you people make up the stories rather than telling the facts as they are. For that reason, I would have behaved no different than ‘Shere Khan’ and I would never have made friendship with ‘Mowgli’. I was governed by laws of the nature until I met with an accident.

Tigers do not believe in luck or fate. So I think my encounter with human beings is purely an accident. When I was growing up, I did not know that human race existed. Playing with two siblings under the protection of my mother was the world to me. Mother would take us out and let us watch from a hiding how she hunts. All four legged animals, thinner the legs, bulkier the stomach, better the meal for us. Time was running fast. I did not know then what it meant when they say happier times. Wait for the right moment, Attack! Mother had trained us well and I learnt to hunt on my own. That is when mother’s affection started fading and soon she pushed me out of her territory.

         I was on my own comfortably. An ambush strike on the way to waterhole would keep my hunger satisfied for couple of days, then I would sleep well and keep my cool before the need to hunt again. During my walks marking the territory instinctively, I noticed how scared other animals are seeing me. Am I the prince of this jungle? Yeah, looks does matter. Scarier the appearance higher the respect. A plain growl would keep my path free. It did not take much time to transform from a prince into a king.

All was well until I met a human accidentally. There was not one but many. They appeared like large monkeys (you remember you called me big cat), walking on two legs but they were not jumping from tree to tree. They appeared weak. I did not want to eat them but I was irritated a lot by their presence. I waited until one of them singled out and made an appearance before him. My intention was to scare him out of my territory. No doubt he was scared but he shouted and all the crowd began to gather. I just disappeared from the scene, not of out fear but sheer disgust.

After that incident, I had a sense of being watched whenever I went out. Soon I had to meet a human being again. At some distance he was standing on the top a tower, holding a stick aiming at me. Blood rushed to my face and I instantly jumped on him. What a surprise, his stick fired something which pierced my hind leg. I fell down and could not run anymore. In no time, I lost my senses and collapsed.

After what it appeared to be a deep sleep of many days, I woke up in a small island like place surrounded by barricades. There is room to walk but not big enough as few steps would bring it to end. Go back and go round. ‘Oh, this is a confinement’ I realized. I was captivated. Food came regularly, what a relief but it is boring to eat at same time of the day. I missed unpredictability of the jungle. I hear sounds of other animals in the vicinity and understand that they are captivated too. Each animal has a confined space here. What kind of a place on earth is this? No exercise to muscles and I am not using my paws and teeth which were my ultimate tools in hunting. I started looking at what is outside of those barricades. There were humans, tens of them, standing on the other side iron bars and staring at me. The moat is wide between us. While I can attempt a jump off the moat, those iron bars would still hurt me else I would have taken lives out of those bodies one after the other. I am out of options. I just lie-down and stare back.

You know no Tiger keeps a dairy. Reading and writing is such a waste of time and a Tiger would rather live life to fullest remaining in action. As my hunting skills and tools are rusting, I am learning to think like humans. Yes, there is nothing else to do. I don’t mean life is bad in confinement but there is no excitement. To kill time, keeping a dairy, spending time in the reminiscences may not be a bad thing. Will they ever leave me back in the jungle? I am not sure if I want to go back. You think Tiger loves freedom over timely food? You can find out for yourself which Tiger lives longer. Then extended life is the price for freedom. Is not it? I don’t like thinking this much. Let me take a nap.

Wheel of History turns all the time

There were times when the saying “Sun never sets in British Kingdom” was true. It got changed. Brexit now demonstrates that the British like to hold their fort through protectionist policies. Their forefathers were very different, they went around the world exploring the opportunities. As the wheel of history turned, upward motion did not last.

Donald Trump’s win in the US and the emphasis he puts on in hiring locals shows that their upward movement too is ending. America became economic super power as it was consistently attracting best talent in the world. Look at those who are running Silicon Valley companies and holding highest patents. Immigrants have a greater share in it. In a vegetable market, if you stop fresh vegetables coming into the market, soon you would be left with rotten tomatoes. Why that would be different when you stop attracting fresh talent?

The last two centuries had belonged to the British and Americans respectively. They made most of it but now they are losing out their place. Before the 18^th century, India and China were half of global GDP. Now they are regaining their lost position. And there is Russia who had lost the opportunity to the US despite winning the Second World War making a fresh attempt joining hands with India and China. During the medieval times, Japan had shut doors to outsiders for many centuries. They were the losers, their economic growth started only after they opened their doors. Similarly, if US wants to close its borders, its benefits will be ultra short term as the history has shown it,

India is slowly shedding its socialist image. Now we have toll roads and the poor too pay for clean drinking water. As the subsidies fall out, India sees an economic progress. At the same time, it is going back to its roots as it is becoming economically stronger. How else “Patanjali” as a brand can take on the mighty “Hindusthan Unilever”? Clear majority for Modi showed that Hindus are uniting. And it helped pro-Hindutva activities. Take a trip to Gangotri, you will notice scaling 10,000 feet altitude in the Himalayas is an easy drive now and compare that with the experiences of pilgrims of the past decade going for a char-dham visit. Religion is getting higher importance for sure. Yogi being appointed as CM of UP proves this point again. Not just Yoga, Sanskrit and Veda too will be learnt in great detail in coming days. Economic growth seems to have no connection with religion at the high level, but both are beneficiary of each other. They take each other up or down so go together.

Wheel of history is turning and taking up India, China and Russia economically. That will rewrite the history all over again as long as it lasts. And that is going to last few generations. Forget going to the US and be there where the momentum is if you want to be part of the good times to come.

Bollywood, Cricket and GST

Going by recorded history, it was King Ashoka who had ruled over entire India. After him, there was no other king to match him for the geography under his command. Even the Great Mughals did not venture into south or north east. After a gap of roughly 2000 years of Ashoka’s rule, the British took India under their rule. They unified India to make it easy for them to administer. They built long rail roads and postal network to run their machinery. But that helped none other than M K Gandhi. He traveled by train mostly to all corners of India asking people to unite against a common enemy and fight for their freedom. People wrote to him addressing “M K Gandhi, wherever he is” and it was the job of postal network to locate him and deliver the mails. An idea of independent and democratic India was born and propagated using the infrastructure built by the British. After the independence, it was Mr. Patel played an instrumental role in shaping the geography of modern India, we owe map of India to him. Then Bollywood took over the job of keeping India united. The movie titles such as Raj Kapoor’s ‘Jis Desh Me Ganga Behti Hai’ to multi-starrer ‘Amar-Akbar-Anthony’, touched the underlying strings of united India. When P T Usha won the medal and Kapil Dev’s team won the world-cup for India, we all took pride in being Indians. Now Virat Kohli is not just a cricketer for us but a representative of Indian pride too. Last decade’s movies like ‘Lagaan’, ‘Chak De’ and the most recent ‘Dangal’ turned out to be block-buster successes as they were built on the theme of national pride and the motivation to fight against the odds. Though the heroes of these movies do not seem to be understanding what they stood for in their movies, the collective efforts of movie makers evoked the the right feelings in Indians. Thus, Sports and Bollywood have played a very important role in guarding the emotional sense of feeling the national pride.

As the baby boomers are aging and the new generation millennials are taking over, what would help us Indians in remaining united? First is migration across states. There are people from Punjab and North East who have found a home in Bangalore. Similarly lots of Mangaloreans are in Mumbai and Keralites have found to be far reaching and many more such instances. These migrants know the importance of inter-dependence across states and if their home state want to go separate, they would vote against it. But the in-equalities have to be reduced in the first place to avoid any such urges. Goa and New Delhi pay out the best wages in the country but those in Bengal or Orissa earn a fraction of what other Indians earn. This gap has to be bridged. Economic growth should spread and create a homogeneous India. And a step towards that will be played out by the tax reform GST. Central Govt. will collect a uniform tax from entire India and distribute the share to state Govt’s. This will avoid some state Govt.’s giving huge incentives and other states levying hefty state taxes. As the tax benefits or impact across states neutralize, focus moves on to labor rates. Those states with lower wages are likely to attract investments in the future, so job creation & economic growth spreads to under developed regions of India. Infrastructure too follows along with it. There comes a better India, with playing ground being leveled. Then Bollywood and Cricket will find some weight being lifted off their shoulders.

Digged for Gold but got Copper

We came to know that Modi can take bold and tough decisions. But political mastery does not necessarily equate with mastery over economics. So the benefits of demonetization were overestimated and the inconveniences were underestimated by his close aides. And they had to learn hard way that poor execution can spoil a good strategy. Newly printed Rs.2,000 notes became an exchange for black money and created a large scale corruption. It proved that the majority of Indians are not ready to pay taxes they owe to the system.

Let us look at the negative effects first. Take a glance at credit growth rates, it shows that it has gone to 50 years low. Bad times for banks. Vehicle sales have plummeted. Construction industry is seeing a set back. What India badly needs is job creation but the jobs are being lost as the mass employing sector like construction is seeing a set-back. You think it is a temporary phenomenon, well, it is difficult to estimate when the turnaround will come. Forget growth, going back to past levels of valuation will take couple of years for the real estate industry, so there is not much motivation for investors.

There are many positives too. Interest rates are down, inflation is under check. Money in banking system has gone up. Cash to GDP ratio is reduced. Tax collections will see an upside. Indians learnt to use Paytm. Debit cards are not limited to withdraw cash at ATM’s and consumers as well as retailers are demanding for use of POS machines. All these will help offset the negative impacts over few years period. Unless monetary system is tampered again, India would absorb this shock and post higher growth rates.

Collectively, over a period of years, benefits may over weigh the injuries done by the demonetization. But the expectations were set very high that India would be clean in 50 days, which was quite unrealistic.They digged for Gold but what they found was Copper. It too has some value.